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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    Euro is cold enough for snow at the 850 level but 925 level is a few degrees to warm
  2. rjvanals
    It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now?
  3. rjvanals
    Looking at the 3k NAM it'ss interesting to see areas near ice covered water struggling to get above freezing tomorrow
  4. rjvanals
    New Euro weeklies don’t look great
  5. rjvanals
    Love the consistency of the GFS
  6. rjvanals
    The GFS has been on a heater this year forecasting phantom snowstorms
  7. rjvanals
    True but at least it’s felt like winter rather than watching daffodils grow in January. The January storm is one that won’t be forgotten for a while.
  8. rjvanals
    Regardless of what happens w the rest of the winter it’s been memorable w the extended cold and snowpack
  9. rjvanals
    It’s crazy how DC will have an above freezing high temp for today
  10. rjvanals
    Looks like a bit of light snow/flurries at Whitetail
  11. rjvanals
    I’m fine with the Canadian and UKMET keeping things south of us—once a system gets north, it rarely comes back south
  12. rjvanals
    The GFS has been amazing on this storm
  13. rjvanals
    If forecasting the weather seven days out were as simple as looking at the Euro and calling it gospel, I wouldn’t find it nearly as compelling. The real fascination lies in the uncertainty of what might unfold.
  14. rjvanals
    Yeah we mostly get scraped and no flush hits w low end warning being our upside
  15. rjvanals
    18z Euro gives me 2010 Boxing Day anxiety I’d rather it just miss out to sea
  16. rjvanals
    18z GFS was predicting nearly an inch of snow for DCA tonight
  17. rjvanals
    NAM 3k still likes a dusting through the metro this evening
  18. rjvanals
    For DC looks like 75% misses 20% smaller hits in the 1-3 range and one bigger hit
  19. rjvanals
    Still a bit to early to completely bail on this especially if the goal is a low end warning event around the metro area
  20. rjvanals
    Ask yourself how confident would you be in Raleigh or Norfolk that you’d be getting a blizzard this weekend?
  21. rjvanals
    I generally take GFS runs that show 30 inches of snow in Raleigh and 2 feet in Norfolk in 96 hrs as Gospel w no chance it might be wrong
  22. rjvanals
    What’s our next threat window after we sniff cirrus this weekend?
  23. rjvanals
    Had the same thought it would have far less upside but would be cold powder on top of our glacier
  24. rjvanals
    No reason to give up just yet especially w the GFS and Canadian giving us some snow. We have the most important ingredient for snow in the cold airmass and the general synoptic setup is pretty good.
  25. rjvanals
    Snow showers this evening? HRRR and NAM and Gfs continue to suggest we have a shot
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