rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850
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Looks like a quick C-2” across the metros w a quicker than expected transition to sleet then cold rain while we get snow pics from our NW friends
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Snow/sleet in Potomac
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BWI: 4.3” DCA: 2.8” IAD: 6.1” RIC: 7.1” SBY: 11.1”
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Flurries in Potomac
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That 10 foot rise on Sligo Creek is impressive/scary
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Seems like some positive lightning strikes behind the main w the thunder shaking my house a few times
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Normally we need low dewpoints heading into a event but this time it's killing our chances of seeing anything measurable
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RGEM is a touch north and gets snow close to DC
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ICON is no good
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The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right
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NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's
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When has the NAM ever been wrong on such short leads
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max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol
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I'm not sure why we have such a pocket of dry air as soon as your north of the Potomac coming into the event compared to everywhere else on the East Coast
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Pivotal/Weatherbell/TropicalTidbits are just trying to get site visits up w the NAM run
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The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter
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Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons
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Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo
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Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger
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Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood
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Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome
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I’d sign up for this run at this point
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Good news is we don’t have to wait long til the ICON then RGEM then GFS tell us to go to bed before the Euro
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3-6-13 was the worst bust imo
