rjvanals

Here’s a good spot to track the temp drop up on Camp David at~1800ft https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRSP

As I was pointing out yesterday but others dismissed temps will be an issue as the models started showing the Arctic front slowing down and we’re now hoping the cold can chase the precip Model trends early this morning show Arctic front has slowed down considerably since yesterday and is not fcst to clear the northern half of the fcst area until after 18Z. Meanwhile, models trends and microwave imagery through the snowfall rate product show precip arriving sooner than previously expected. Microwave passes since 0220Z showed that snow has been falling in the mountains since that time and a more recent pass from 0800Z showed that snow, at least aloft, has made it to areas just west of I-81. Further east, gridded NUCAPS data showed that 925 and 850 mb 0C isotherms are further north than model guidance suggest and given current temps in the upper 30s and slower trend on the passage of the Arctic front indicate that areas along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 will see more rain or mixing with rain at the beginning of the precip event. Still, a 3-hr period of intense precip rates is expected this afternoon, mainly between 18-21Z, when Arctic air will be advancing southward. The low pressure system will be out of the picture by 00Z Monday with most of the snow gone, except in far northeast Maryland and in the mountains where snow will continue all night. New snow totals maps were changed slightly, basically to cut down on snow accumulations some, particulary along and south of Interstate 66 and US-50 and precip start time was adjusted to bring precip sooner.

Pretty much noise around the metros qpf wise

NAMs still aren't overly enthused with the storm and have delayed the cold with DCA not getting to freezing until noon tomorrow

All I-95 snow weenies approve of the Euro

Canadian follows the RGEM and get's snow to the beltway

GFS isn't very robust for the midweek storm even down south

Yeah I'm nervous here in Potomac as well due to our numerous fails with cold chasing the precip

We got some tracking to do

Euro gives Tallahassee 6.5" of snow which tells me we have a chance to keep nudging northwest with the snow

Euro is closer on Wed

ICON is good

Can I DocuSign for this?

I like the NAM not being amped at all especially since it’s usually over amped

Yep and worried for my backyard that this will turn into a Frederick/Carroll County special

Hopefully this place isn’t active on Sunday when the Canadian is correct

Yeah it’s I-95 and west special puts more credence to the RGEM idea

GFS gets snow close to DC on Wed

Yeah it eventually gets here but it’s been slowing down each run and we don’t usually do well w cold chasing precip

The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95

Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though

GEFS ensembles look good

No concern about the Canadian?

HRRR gives us a solid dusting this evening

EPS has DC with 75% chance of 1"+ and 20% with 3" +