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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    Euro misses south it looks like; has a major difference w GFS w what happens w the 1/4 storm in the Canadian maritimes
  2. rjvanals
    GFS is interesting for the 1/7 storm
  3. rjvanals
    We got blue on the GFS for the 1/7 storm
  4. rjvanals
    It close enough to watch. This run we get fringed w light precip but it’s cold enough at the 925 level we’d snow if the precip was heavier
  5. rjvanals
    12/11: 1.6”
  6. rjvanals
    Similar scenes to mine. Went 1.4 conservatively but it was likely closer to 2 here.
  7. rjvanals
    1.4in here w snow starting to wind down
  8. rjvanals
    Looking at some of the road cams in the band the ICC is snow covered as you get closer to 270
  9. rjvanals
    Yeah the band is legit w snow sticking to the driveway and slush buildup on the street
  10. rjvanals
    Light snow in Potomac, 34f w enough accumulation to make a slush ball off the cars hood
  11. rjvanals
    Snow mixing in; 35f
  12. rjvanals
    12 z NAM looks to speed up a changeover but gets the precip out much quicker than earlier runs
  13. rjvanals
    Euro looks somewhat sleety in the metros w a change to snow looking at soundings.
  14. rjvanals
    Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo
  15. rjvanals
    No 87 was the big Veterans Day storm. The one in 95 was short duration but had intense rates and enough sleet for my 10 year old self to sled down the driveway.
  16. rjvanals
    Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac
  17. rjvanals
    DCA: 15.2 IAD: 29.3 BWI: 25.4 RIC: 16.8 SBY: 16.2
  18. rjvanals
    @TerpeastThanks for putting in the effort to produce such a in-depth outlook!
  19. rjvanals
    Snowing pretty good but not much stickage even on cars here in midtown at 54th st
  20. rjvanals
    108 is good at least
  21. rjvanals
    Couple red flags: 1. Source region isn’t as cold this run looking upstream 2. Looking at soundings hr 150 we’re it looks good on the map but precip would be forming below the DGZ since we’re not very cold at the 700 MB level
  22. rjvanals
    Some Graupel here in Potomac
  23. rjvanals
    12z GFS would be the best event of the winter
  24. rjvanals
    For this “winter” the 0z GFS would work
  25. rjvanals
    Soundings on Sunday evening are close on HH GFS for western suburbs
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