rjvanals

Looks pretty similar to this past storm snowfall wise on Pivotal

Hrrr is going to be wrong in the metro since it shows sleet coming into the area and I haven’t seen any reports of that

Its about a foot in DC more towards baltimore sleet makes it to 95

5.25 total in Potomac

I agree it has bust potential with marginal temps and being on the northern edge of the best precip. The best thing going for it is the majority of precip is progged to occur after dark.

3K NAM with a general 4-8 N-S is more realistic than the the regular NAM

The long range is pretty muddled until we get through the Tuesday/Wednesday system

31f w light freezing rain

This has been super underwhelming

We're still 96 hours out from the storm and the Canadian is a bit north of last night. Not sure why everyone is spiking the football short of the end zone

NAM has the snow burst again

If we can get 1” of sleet decent chance it’ll survive the torch

Canadian is also a ice storm

This place will be active in a week once this epic pattern was a model hallucination

GFS is Sleety and Snowy Wed

6/5 tornado outbreak due to the long track nature of the tornadoes

Having prolonged snowpack and multiple events has made this a fun January

2 hour delay for MCPS

I had that 1/20/22 non event in the back of my mind when I was worried about temps with this one. We'd just had our first big snow event in a while (similar to this year) and the storm was supposed to bring a heavy burst of snow just in time for the morning commute with cold air being modeled to arrive just in time for the heavy precip which would help cool the column. The night before everyone was a bit worried since we were running a few degrees above modeled temps but everyone said don't worry. The cold air was indeed delayed giving only areas above ~1000 ft appreciable snow with the DC area having heavy rain despite most school systems being closed for the "snow" day.

This has been a great pattern and had last weekend been a hit rather than a close miss it would be remembered in 95/96 or 09/10 style

It was consistent in having the idea of a light to moderate storm from a ~week out? Not sure if any other had it

GFS isnt enthused on the Thursday threat

NAMs and GFS suggest a bit of light snow Tuesday night

What’s the next threat?

30 light snow w 1.1 new. W darkness approaching even light snow can add on a bit to the total