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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south
  2. rjvanals
    Yeah similar to 3/6/13
  3. rjvanals
    Check out the snow depth map though
  4. rjvanals
    Euro is also colder than all other guidance so lets hope its right
  5. rjvanals
    18z Euro is nice for DC
  6. rjvanals
    12z Euro gives DC nearly an inch
  7. rjvanals
    RGEM is a step back ☹️
  8. rjvanals
    Story of 2023 no snow on the northern periphery of the system as @psuhoffmankeeps harping on
  9. rjvanals
    A good NW flow which is what Syracuse needs for Lake Effect at least gets cold air into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a SW flow regime which buries Buffalo (2001-02, 2022-23) is bad news down here since we have no cold air.
  10. rjvanals
    Column looks pretty good tomorrow evening for snow( except for extreme boundary layer).
  11. rjvanals
    We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️
  12. rjvanals
    Problem for immediate NW crew will be temps from 1500-3000ft looking at soundings. Hopefully they’re running a degree or two warm.
  13. rjvanals
    If we can get precip in early enough western burbs should get on the board tomorrow morning
  14. rjvanals
    18z GFS is pretty close to snow for morning commute based on soundings from the beltway west. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022122118&fh=18&r=us_state_de_md&pwplus=1&lon=-77.4364&lat=38.9752&metar=&st=b686ce5c32bed4c6
  15. rjvanals
    Looking at the soundings on pivotal it would be a ~2 hr period of snow even for the immediate NW suburbs if 3K is right
  16. rjvanals
    Having chased Lake Effect during college at Syracuse, stay off the Thruway or any interstate unless you wanna get stranded between exits. The towns will keep most primary and secondary roads passable enough even in crazy bands for pretty much any 4x4 but have a shovel in case you can’t find the road and get briefly stuck.
  17. rjvanals
    Based on Twitter we had a possible touchdown in Tyson’s?
  18. rjvanals
    W borderline temps I agree rooting for a bit of sleet early on will actually enhance accumulations by putting down a base to help overcome daylight and mid March
  19. rjvanals
    Check the Whitetail webcams. Looks like a solid squall.
  20. rjvanals
    Looks like the GL being a bit faster on the 18z is what screwed things up
  21. rjvanals
    18z isn't a fan of Sunday
  22. rjvanals
    If you want decent accumulation during the day w temps at/just below freezing a good rule of thumb is having visibility under a mile. Light Snow with .75 mile visibility and 32f will accumulate while light snow with 2 mile visibility and 30f will struggle to accumulate ~10-3pm.
  23. rjvanals
    That band has been jumping around like crazy if you scrowl through the previous runs.
  24. rjvanals
    While we are getting closer to the goods on the coastal, the front end stuff on Friday is a bit more ragged looking than past runs on both Nam and now NAM 3K which is in range. We need the front end stuff to score forum wide since relying on the coastal is a huge gamble.
  25. rjvanals
    DCA has had as much snow as Albany this year to put things in perspective
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