rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Snow showers this evening? HRRR and NAM and Gfs continue to suggest we have a shot
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These are global models so the fact that they showed a storm 7 days out that it got right within 100 miles is extremely impressive and a job well done even if we don’t get our desired result. For hurricanes the forecast cone 4 days out is hundreds of miles and we just accept the uncertainty.
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Everyone in OCMD and Richmond should make a midnight run to the grocery store to stock up on supplies
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I’m sure this will be the final result considering how common it is for OCMD and Richmond to get 30”+ of snow
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Icon looks like last Mondays 12z GFS which jackpotted Richmond
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Normally having it be SE is a good thing but both the GFS and Euro and even Icon indicate the storm will have more of a positive tilt vs the negative tilt we need to get precip back to I-81.
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Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone
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UK being a miss and the GFS-AI having zero interest in this are a red flag imo but the Canadian did a great job w the storm over The Weeknd
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I trust the NWS forecast of Saturday being Sunny w a high of 22 more than any of these models
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There's to many oranges around my house on Pivotal and Philly would get 3 feet while we'd only get two so not sure I'm a big fan of the system at this point
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I guess I'd approve of the 14 inches of new snow by next Saturday night with the storm not close to being done
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16f w sleet in Potomac 10.5” snow/sleet total as the storm wraps up Plow piles look like we easily had ~18” due to the density of the sleet
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7.75” snow/sleet so far in Potomac The sleet actually has a tint of blue to it when its shoveled which I’ve never seen before
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We had some events like this back in 1994 w sleet/freezing rain w temps in the teens in the DMV and heavy snow north of the M/D (I was only 9 at the time so I don’t have a great synoptic memory of it)
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Great explanation and a pretty rare set up!
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7.3” snow/sleet so far in Potomac. At least w the sleet the parking lot snow piles will look like we got 18”
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6” in Potomac w light rimed snow
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It’s under appreciated just how cold this airmass really is. Today would be a COLD day in even Albany or Syracuse so we can’t blame a bad airmass for our mix issues
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Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres
rjvanals replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
It’ll be a fun storm kind of 1994 like w areas to our north getting the best storm while we get a glacier. As long as I have power Monday morning I’ll be happy since the freezing rain aspect is being underplayed imo -
that's one way to get to double digits in the official snowfall records
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It’s a model I watch, but it definitely has a cold bias. It’s too quick to crash rain over to snow when surface temps drop and tends to underplay the warm nose, so it’s often slow to flip snow over to sleet or freezing rain.
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I envision this storm as a reverse 2011 Commutageddon, occurring near the 15th anniversary, with heavy snow at the onset followed by prolonged sleet — a different evolution, but potentially similar societal impacts.
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Anyone else concerned looking at the Euro soundings around DC? The snow growth zone temp is as follows: 9z: -8.6 12z: -7.6 15z: -5.4 18z: -4 This should be a big red flag if we're counting on ratios or even a shot at double digits around the metro imo.
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Looking at the Euro soundings on Pivotal we don't get into the good snow growth zones this run around DC so even when we stay snow we're not going to get great ratios
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Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm.
