rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Very light snow in Potomac w small flakes
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Snowing at Wintergreen based on webcams
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Hope the NAM is right
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This is what makes me nervous being on the north side of the forecast precip shield
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3k NAM has dry air eat up all our snow
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EPS are a slight step back compared to 12z both in terms of total precip and chances for 1”
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18z Euro wasn’t ideal although qpf w such small amounts is basically noise
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The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters.
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Canadian is a close miss south
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Having snow miss us to the south sucks but I'd rather it be a "storm" like this where the upside is 4" rather than be a storm with real upside
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Thanks! Unfortunately the warm nose at 800 was well modeled and deep enough to fully melt the dendrites which explains the lack of sleet even in the immediate NW suburbs. Any thoughts on if this would’ve worked had it been Jan 2nd rather than Dec2nd? My hunch is this exact storm evolution wouldn’t have worked in the DC metro even in prime climo
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Curious what the actual temp profile was when the precip moved in to see how where the warm layer was and how much we actually missed by.
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Unfortunate win by the NAMs who said for days the warm layer would win out south of the M/D line
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Looks like the thin warm nose has screwed everyone not west of Hagerstown w this event
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Looking at the 3k NAM the warm layer in the initial thump has been getting less pronounced over the past few runs and is really only ~1000 ft deep around 6k feet. If this layer could cool just a degree we could get a nice thump even in DC metro
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FWIW the HRRR continues to trend a bit colder close to the metros
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Looking at the HRRR we just need a model bust of 1-2f colder at ~850 for a decent thump of snow in the immediate NW suburbs
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Surface temps while a problem isn’t the biggest issue. The models have consistently had us dropping to near freezing but rising just enough as the precip arrives especially between 700 and 850mb for it to be rain
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Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850
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Looks like a quick C-2” across the metros w a quicker than expected transition to sleet then cold rain while we get snow pics from our NW friends
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Snow/sleet in Potomac
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BWI: 4.3” DCA: 2.8” IAD: 6.1” RIC: 7.1” SBY: 11.1”
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Flurries in Potomac
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That 10 foot rise on Sligo Creek is impressive/scary
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Seems like some positive lightning strikes behind the main w the thunder shaking my house a few times
