rjvanals

At least it’s not March 6, 2013

43f and still some patchy snowcover around from Friday night

This winter unlike 2023 and 2020 has given us numerous trackable opportunities that have converted from digital to real snow. As I’ve gotten older tracking itself is enjoyable as a weather buff and have accepted that real snow is just a bonus.

Canadian has the storm over Norfolk but rain to Scranton ☹️

12/11 1.6” 1/16 4.8” 1/19 5.3 2/12 .5” 2/17 2.3" Season Total: 14.5”

From 1-2AM last night it was pretty sweet w legit heavy snow here so despite the disappointment in overall totals it wasn't a total bust imby.

2.3” final total here at 400ft in Potomac; had 1 awesome hour w ~1.5”/hr rates from 1-2 am that gave most of the accumulation so can’t really complain as that hour brought me back to my Syracuse days

Snowing hard enough here for my salted street to cave

Lt snow 34f

GFS won’t back down

Looks like we have light snow as close as Whitetail based on webcams

Latest HRRR isn’t great ☹️

This looks like it'll have a decent gradient between the hills in NW DC vs downtown/DCA

The system keeps moving north w each run; hope we can hold on

Euro has the PSU storm on the 23rd..

Euro is a bit north of 18Z w max stripe right through DC metro but DC proper is also flirting with the freezing mark..

The crazy thing is the Mid-Atlantic forum is doing better relative to average compared to pretty much anywhere on the east coast (Syracuse and Erie with under 30 inches so far this year is crazy). It's been a failure for the entire east coast not just us.

What gives me hope is that even in this new “normal” we still have 10-14 days each winter we can “luck” ourselves into a MECS if things break right (19-20 might be the exception as I don’t remember any threats; last year we had a threat before Christmas that ended up cutting west bringing the polar vortex). The difference now is we need to hit a 4 team parlay instead of the easier 3 team Parlay for big events BUT when we do hit it results in bigger payouts. Our long term averages are decreasing in the new “normal” due to the lack of classic 4-8” events across the DC area w eastern areas getting 4” due to mixing and Loudoun/upper Montgomery receiving 8”. Those have shifted west ~40 miles resulting in rain east of 95, mix 95 to Frederick, and snow northern MD/Hagerstown. The areas w all snow are getting 10” instead of 8” but the lack of clippers and minor front end snow events is starting to eat away at their averages. It’ll still be fun to chase the big ones around the DMV but when we fail it’s gonna be pretty ugly.

Since 2021 DC has had 4 marginal temp snow events with onsets after sunrise that have turned 2-4" events had they occurred overnight (with the exact same temp profile) into T-1" events. Some of our recent suck on the margins is just bad luck imo. 2/7/21 2/13/22 3/12/22 2/13/24

12/11 1.6” 1/16 4.8” 1/19 5.3 2/12 .5” Total: 12.2”

Snow winding down w .5” total here; bit of a under-performer

Got a bit unlucky w timing here in immediate metro area w the changeover happening post daybreak; had changeover been at 4 am we’d have had much more accumulation even w above freezing temps and same duration of snow

Dusting here w light snow 33f

Foreshadowing this thread in ~10 hours

This place will be busy tomorrow