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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    I’m fine with the Canadian and UKMET keeping things south of us—once a system gets north, it rarely comes back south
  2. rjvanals
    The GFS has been amazing on this storm
  3. rjvanals
    If forecasting the weather seven days out were as simple as looking at the Euro and calling it gospel, I wouldn’t find it nearly as compelling. The real fascination lies in the uncertainty of what might unfold.
  4. rjvanals
    Yeah we mostly get scraped and no flush hits w low end warning being our upside
  5. rjvanals
    18z Euro gives me 2010 Boxing Day anxiety I’d rather it just miss out to sea
  6. rjvanals
    18z GFS was predicting nearly an inch of snow for DCA tonight
  7. rjvanals
    NAM 3k still likes a dusting through the metro this evening
  8. rjvanals
    For DC looks like 75% misses 20% smaller hits in the 1-3 range and one bigger hit
  9. rjvanals
    Still a bit to early to completely bail on this especially if the goal is a low end warning event around the metro area
  10. rjvanals
    Ask yourself how confident would you be in Raleigh or Norfolk that you’d be getting a blizzard this weekend?
  11. rjvanals
    I generally take GFS runs that show 30 inches of snow in Raleigh and 2 feet in Norfolk in 96 hrs as Gospel w no chance it might be wrong
  12. rjvanals
    What’s our next threat window after we sniff cirrus this weekend?
  13. rjvanals
    Had the same thought it would have far less upside but would be cold powder on top of our glacier
  14. rjvanals
    No reason to give up just yet especially w the GFS and Canadian giving us some snow. We have the most important ingredient for snow in the cold airmass and the general synoptic setup is pretty good.
  15. rjvanals
    Snow showers this evening? HRRR and NAM and Gfs continue to suggest we have a shot
  16. rjvanals
    These are global models so the fact that they showed a storm 7 days out that it got right within 100 miles is extremely impressive and a job well done even if we don’t get our desired result. For hurricanes the forecast cone 4 days out is hundreds of miles and we just accept the uncertainty.
  17. rjvanals
    Everyone in OCMD and Richmond should make a midnight run to the grocery store to stock up on supplies
  18. rjvanals
    I’m sure this will be the final result considering how common it is for OCMD and Richmond to get 30”+ of snow
  19. rjvanals
    Icon looks like last Mondays 12z GFS which jackpotted Richmond
  20. rjvanals
    Normally having it be SE is a good thing but both the GFS and Euro and even Icon indicate the storm will have more of a positive tilt vs the negative tilt we need to get precip back to I-81.
  21. rjvanals
    Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone
  22. rjvanals
    UK being a miss and the GFS-AI having zero interest in this are a red flag imo but the Canadian did a great job w the storm over The Weeknd
  23. rjvanals
    I trust the NWS forecast of Saturday being Sunny w a high of 22 more than any of these models
  24. rjvanals
    There's to many oranges around my house on Pivotal and Philly would get 3 feet while we'd only get two so not sure I'm a big fan of the system at this point
  25. rjvanals
    I guess I'd approve of the 14 inches of new snow by next Saturday night with the storm not close to being done
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