rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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As someone who likes power I really hope we can avoid freezing rain with temps around 20
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Let’s hope the GFS scores another coup like the other 2 MECS it’s predicted this winter
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It's the GFS. Toggle through the last 4 runs to find out how "consistent" it has been before freaking out
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We had sleet for a few hours in the 96 storm in Potomac
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Way too much early celebrating around here. We have 120 hrs for things to go wrong and every 6 hours we go from “don’t worry it’s the GFS” to the GFS is amazing
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I’ll be on total tilt as well since it’s had 2 MECS within 100 hrs for the area and been wrong so hopefully it’s just as wrong on this one as well. Having it finally score a coup on this potential storm would be so tilting.
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Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out?
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This is the type of storm we’d of scored something measurable even in DC 20 years ago as we only missed by a degree or two. We had well below normal temps with precip at night during our coldest time of year along with temps at 850mb well below freezing and we manage to fail. Very disheartening even though it’s a “small bust”
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GFS can’t even get tomorrows storm right and we’re freaking out about a storm 8 days out?
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Don’t look at the GFS
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It's super frustrating that we're going to be well below freezing at 850mb in the dead of night during our coldest time of year and still manage to rain. Tomorrow will register as a well below normal day with precip and we still can't really score.
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They’ve actually juiced up but were a degree or two to warm and we waste a lot to rain
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NAMs are warm
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.25" here this morning with streets briefly caving
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Euro gives DC nearly an inch tonight let's see if its right (although it might be sleet looking at soundings)
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GFS wants to bring us some snow tv tomorrow midday
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the heavy rates will cool the column
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The GFS not being excited about it makes me more optimistic
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not quite a shutout as we got a trace or .1 early morning on New Years Day but this month has been an epic disaster considering the hype and the phantom GFS blizzards torturing us each time
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An impressive showing from the GFS this week, going 0–2 within 100 hours of the phantom storm’s onset. Forecasting confidence remains high; accuracy optional.
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The GFS has been on a heater with digital snow recently
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I'm at the grocery store stocking up for tomorrow's GFS blizzard
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RGEM gives us some white rain on Saturday
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We've been extremely unlucky and several near misses have been caused by having to strong of a cold push. We've also missed the timing for phasing to get a big storm by a few hours like last February. As long as areas to our south are having historic snowstorms its clear we're not doomed due to a lack of cold (Last winter New Orleans and North Florida had nearly 10 inches of snow)
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The model performance on this was laughably bad. Take a look at todays 12z Euro vs yesterday at 12z. Totally different world
