rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Snow approaching DC at 93 with 999 L over the Smokies
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Low looks to be headed towards Winchester this run
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I prefer the 12z to the 18z; both have roughly the same snow but 18z has more rain over the corridor
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Low heads to HGR higher totals south of DC are largely due to a deathband this run has
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Faster this run but low still goes over DC
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GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC
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Looks like about .7-.8qpf of snow in a ~6 hr thump
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I've resigned myself to some rain but would like the low a bit further east to keep from torching into the low 40's. This is a great run if your looking to ski at Whitetail on Monday.
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Looks like .3-.4 of rain with temps spiking to low 40's at DCA
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A low going from Raleigh to near Norfolk to DC would be unusual
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Yeah my 4 years at Cuse were pretty solid snowfall wise but I would still complain when we missed lol 2003-2004 181.3 2004-2005 136.2 2005-2006 124.6 2006-2007 140.2
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That storm was well forecasted a few days out on the local news in Syracuse. If I remember correctly initially the thought was more towards Oswego/Jefferson County line would be the bullseye but it turned out to be Parish/Pulaski in the central part of Oswego County. Great storm.
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Yeah was a Senior at Syracuse at the time. Chased the event and got some good photos w the weather channel crew in Parish. Was a bit depressing heading back down to campus 25 miles south of the storm and bare ground since the prevailing winds were W and you needed a WNW to get hit in Syracuse.
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May have been up in Oswego County. Had one close to 80" in 2004 near Fulton/Oswego and close to 100" from a storm near Parish/Pulaski in 2007
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Yeah this exactly having gone to school at Syracuse and experiencing a bit of lake effect
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3.5" here in Potomac so far; band on top of me is similar to a Lake Snow band with high ratio dendrites
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Looking downstream still no snow on the Wintergreen cams at ~3500 ft despite echos overhead
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Jackpot over Manchester so it’s prob right
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18z GFS would make everyone happy
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GFS is still faster than other guidance but more of a 3-5” across metro area
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Some of the previous runs had a more immediate burst of moderate precip in the DC area to start while on the 12z NAMs it had a bit of light precip to start. DPs are still low and 12z RGEM does look better for DC area north.
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Here's the map on pivotal
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Shows up on pivotal w precip types. 12z 3kn also shows the Parr Ridge jackpot so it may be right
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Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway
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Comparing this to the 6z really not much difference other than minor noise
