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rjvanals

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  1. rjvanals
    A good NW flow which is what Syracuse needs for Lake Effect at least gets cold air into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a SW flow regime which buries Buffalo (2001-02, 2022-23) is bad news down here since we have no cold air.
  2. rjvanals
    Column looks pretty good tomorrow evening for snow( except for extreme boundary layer).
  3. rjvanals
    We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️
  4. rjvanals
    Problem for immediate NW crew will be temps from 1500-3000ft looking at soundings. Hopefully they’re running a degree or two warm.
  5. rjvanals
    If we can get precip in early enough western burbs should get on the board tomorrow morning
  6. rjvanals
    18z GFS is pretty close to snow for morning commute based on soundings from the beltway west. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022122118&fh=18&r=us_state_de_md&pwplus=1&lon=-77.4364&lat=38.9752&metar=&st=b686ce5c32bed4c6
  7. rjvanals
    Looking at the soundings on pivotal it would be a ~2 hr period of snow even for the immediate NW suburbs if 3K is right
  8. rjvanals
    Having chased Lake Effect during college at Syracuse, stay off the Thruway or any interstate unless you wanna get stranded between exits. The towns will keep most primary and secondary roads passable enough even in crazy bands for pretty much any 4x4 but have a shovel in case you can’t find the road and get briefly stuck.
  9. rjvanals
    Based on Twitter we had a possible touchdown in Tyson’s?
  10. rjvanals
    W borderline temps I agree rooting for a bit of sleet early on will actually enhance accumulations by putting down a base to help overcome daylight and mid March
  11. rjvanals
    Check the Whitetail webcams. Looks like a solid squall.
  12. rjvanals
    Looks like the GL being a bit faster on the 18z is what screwed things up
  13. rjvanals
    18z isn't a fan of Sunday
  14. rjvanals
    If you want decent accumulation during the day w temps at/just below freezing a good rule of thumb is having visibility under a mile. Light Snow with .75 mile visibility and 32f will accumulate while light snow with 2 mile visibility and 30f will struggle to accumulate ~10-3pm.
  15. rjvanals
    That band has been jumping around like crazy if you scrowl through the previous runs.
  16. rjvanals
    While we are getting closer to the goods on the coastal, the front end stuff on Friday is a bit more ragged looking than past runs on both Nam and now NAM 3K which is in range. We need the front end stuff to score forum wide since relying on the coastal is a huge gamble.
  17. rjvanals
    DCA has had as much snow as Albany this year to put things in perspective
  18. rjvanals
    I’m thinking something similar to the 2/7/21 storm last year. Had a warm day prior and it was a bit slower to flip than modeled with inside the beltway underperforming a bit.
  19. rjvanals
    The Euro on Pivotal is showing Sleet on the graphics but looking at the Euro soundings at 7 am it should either be Rain or Snow since there's no warm layer except at the surface. This may be why the snow map is lower than earlier.
  20. rjvanals
    18z Euro isn’t a fan of Snow in DC
  21. rjvanals
    I approve of the NAM
  22. rjvanals
    The low is 500 miles west of 12z last night. Definitely worth watching.
  23. rjvanals
    If we hadn’t been chasing this for a week most would be happy. Also does show a signal for some wraparound snow on this run
  24. rjvanals
    Low on the Euro is at least just east of DC this run; maybe some backside snow?
  25. rjvanals
    If you like snowpack you'd want some sleet with the Euro as progged since DC spikes into mid 40's as the Low passes over
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