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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    12 z NAM looks to speed up a changeover but gets the precip out much quicker than earlier runs
  2. rjvanals
    Euro looks somewhat sleety in the metros w a change to snow looking at soundings.
  3. rjvanals
    Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo
  4. rjvanals
    No 87 was the big Veterans Day storm. The one in 95 was short duration but had intense rates and enough sleet for my 10 year old self to sled down the driveway.
  5. rjvanals
    Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac
  6. rjvanals
    DCA: 15.2 IAD: 29.3 BWI: 25.4 RIC: 16.8 SBY: 16.2
  7. rjvanals
    @TerpeastThanks for putting in the effort to produce such a in-depth outlook!
  8. rjvanals
    Snowing pretty good but not much stickage even on cars here in midtown at 54th st
  9. rjvanals
    108 is good at least
  10. rjvanals
    Couple red flags: 1. Source region isn’t as cold this run looking upstream 2. Looking at soundings hr 150 we’re it looks good on the map but precip would be forming below the DGZ since we’re not very cold at the 700 MB level
  11. rjvanals
    Some Graupel here in Potomac
  12. rjvanals
    12z GFS would be the best event of the winter
  13. rjvanals
    For this “winter” the 0z GFS would work
  14. rjvanals
    Soundings on Sunday evening are close on HH GFS for western suburbs
  15. rjvanals
    The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south
  16. rjvanals
    Yeah similar to 3/6/13
  17. rjvanals
    Check out the snow depth map though
  18. rjvanals
    Euro is also colder than all other guidance so lets hope its right
  19. rjvanals
    18z Euro is nice for DC
  20. rjvanals
    12z Euro gives DC nearly an inch
  21. rjvanals
    RGEM is a step back ☹️
  22. rjvanals
    Story of 2023 no snow on the northern periphery of the system as @psuhoffmankeeps harping on
  23. rjvanals
    A good NW flow which is what Syracuse needs for Lake Effect at least gets cold air into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a SW flow regime which buries Buffalo (2001-02, 2022-23) is bad news down here since we have no cold air.
  24. rjvanals
    Column looks pretty good tomorrow evening for snow( except for extreme boundary layer).
  25. rjvanals
    We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️
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