rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Looks like .3-.4 of rain with temps spiking to low 40's at DCA
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A low going from Raleigh to near Norfolk to DC would be unusual
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Yeah my 4 years at Cuse were pretty solid snowfall wise but I would still complain when we missed lol 2003-2004 181.3 2004-2005 136.2 2005-2006 124.6 2006-2007 140.2
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That storm was well forecasted a few days out on the local news in Syracuse. If I remember correctly initially the thought was more towards Oswego/Jefferson County line would be the bullseye but it turned out to be Parish/Pulaski in the central part of Oswego County. Great storm.
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Yeah was a Senior at Syracuse at the time. Chased the event and got some good photos w the weather channel crew in Parish. Was a bit depressing heading back down to campus 25 miles south of the storm and bare ground since the prevailing winds were W and you needed a WNW to get hit in Syracuse.
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May have been up in Oswego County. Had one close to 80" in 2004 near Fulton/Oswego and close to 100" from a storm near Parish/Pulaski in 2007
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Yeah this exactly having gone to school at Syracuse and experiencing a bit of lake effect
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3.5" here in Potomac so far; band on top of me is similar to a Lake Snow band with high ratio dendrites
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Looking downstream still no snow on the Wintergreen cams at ~3500 ft despite echos overhead
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Jackpot over Manchester so it’s prob right
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18z GFS would make everyone happy
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GFS is still faster than other guidance but more of a 3-5” across metro area
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Some of the previous runs had a more immediate burst of moderate precip in the DC area to start while on the 12z NAMs it had a bit of light precip to start. DPs are still low and 12z RGEM does look better for DC area north.
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Here's the map on pivotal
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Shows up on pivotal w precip types. 12z 3kn also shows the Parr Ridge jackpot so it may be right
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Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway
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Comparing this to the 6z really not much difference other than minor noise
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Used to chase lake snow up in Oswego County NY when I went to Syracuse. Would always avoid I 81 for this reason as tractor trailers would jackknife and get stuck in the lake storms and they’d need NY state police to rescue them on snowmobiles. On local roads the towns would keep them passable and you could always turn around if there was a incident.
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2.3" moderate snow here in Potomac, 31f
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Matches up pretty well with the GFS which is showing a bit higher but with speed of system I'd go towards Euro
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Euro actually matches up with LWX expected snowfall
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Euro is a bump SE of 18z DC the same slightly lower NW of Balt/DC
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NAM will be the favored model for many in DC after this run
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Pretty similar forecast for DC on 18z GFS/EURO
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Looks close to 12z; slightly less HGR FDK
