rjvanals

The system keeps moving north w each run; hope we can hold on

Euro has the PSU storm on the 23rd..

Euro is a bit north of 18Z w max stripe right through DC metro but DC proper is also flirting with the freezing mark..

The crazy thing is the Mid-Atlantic forum is doing better relative to average compared to pretty much anywhere on the east coast (Syracuse and Erie with under 30 inches so far this year is crazy). It's been a failure for the entire east coast not just us.

What gives me hope is that even in this new “normal” we still have 10-14 days each winter we can “luck” ourselves into a MECS if things break right (19-20 might be the exception as I don’t remember any threats; last year we had a threat before Christmas that ended up cutting west bringing the polar vortex). The difference now is we need to hit a 4 team parlay instead of the easier 3 team Parlay for big events BUT when we do hit it results in bigger payouts. Our long term averages are decreasing in the new “normal” due to the lack of classic 4-8” events across the DC area w eastern areas getting 4” due to mixing and Loudoun/upper Montgomery receiving 8”. Those have shifted west ~40 miles resulting in rain east of 95, mix 95 to Frederick, and snow northern MD/Hagerstown. The areas w all snow are getting 10” instead of 8” but the lack of clippers and minor front end snow events is starting to eat away at their averages. It’ll still be fun to chase the big ones around the DMV but when we fail it’s gonna be pretty ugly.

Since 2021 DC has had 4 marginal temp snow events with onsets after sunrise that have turned 2-4" events had they occurred overnight (with the exact same temp profile) into T-1" events. Some of our recent suck on the margins is just bad luck imo. 2/7/21 2/13/22 3/12/22 2/13/24

12/11 1.6” 1/16 4.8” 1/19 5.3 2/12 .5” Total: 12.2”

Snow winding down w .5” total here; bit of a under-performer

Got a bit unlucky w timing here in immediate metro area w the changeover happening post daybreak; had changeover been at 4 am we’d have had much more accumulation even w above freezing temps and same duration of snow

Dusting here w light snow 33f

Foreshadowing this thread in ~10 hours

This place will be busy tomorrow

My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours

Counting on the HRRR to verify 15 hours out

FWIW Euro does spit out accumulating snow even over DC this run

Yeah we need another shift like the 18z had but it’s close enough to monitor after the SB

Bostons on the northern edge this run…

18z GFS made a big move south (not quite enough for immediate metro) and would get the northern crew in the game

Euro's cold enough to snow until the precip finally gets here for the PD3 "storm"

The only time I’ve been tired of snow was my Freshman year at Syracuse in the 2003-2004 season; it was the second snowiest season on record there with 180” and by March (combined w pledging activities in the snow) I was ready for spring

5.6” storm total here w a little over 8” OTG

1/19 .3 additional from streamer for storm total of 5.6” Season Total: 12”

12/11 1.6” 1/16 4.8” 1/19 5.3 Total: 11.7”

Light snow w a bit of sun breaking through the clouds at times; 4.6” and 30f

2.5 so far this SN,26