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rjvanals

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  1. rjvanals
    That’s a depressing sight showing the lack of real January cold across the east
  2. rjvanals
    We're going to have trouble getting better trends if the low goes over Kent Island like the Euro is showing (40 mile swing from its 6z run)
  3. rjvanals
    The GFS unfortunately has picked up a stronger southerly wind at 850 across the metro the 3k NAM was showing earlier. Hope its wrong
  4. rjvanals
    The 18z Euro tries to do this at hr 54 but has a tiny warm layer just above 850 that screws it up
  5. rjvanals
    NAM would probably break DCA inch streak at least
  6. rjvanals
    Euro was the first to pick up on the mid level warmth issue on its Monday night run. The best runs for the storm showed a Saturday night into Sunday storm w a different setup vs the Saturday storm we have now so who knows if that initial scenario would’ve worked.
  7. rjvanals
    The surface has been holding pretty steady but the 850 level in particular has been degrading across the past few model cycles to a razors edge at this point
  8. rjvanals
    12z 3k NAM looks pretty similar to the 12/16/20 storm with a heavy burst of snow initially across the metro area then watched the CC line move steadily NW; wasn't a bad storm here w around 3 inches and dumped ~6 inches in Frederick https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/17/snow-ice-dc-md-va/
  9. rjvanals
    In that storm I went from my parents house in Potomac where we had a plowable snow to Comet Ping Pong in NW where it wasn't much more than a cartopper. 2-17-18 was another one w a sharp gradient from downtown to western suburbs as well.
  10. rjvanals
    Pretty similar idea to the GFS just juiced up a bit
  11. rjvanals
    The 4pm sounding in DC that’s showing rain is borderline for snow which is the main difference between this and the past two runs
  12. rjvanals
    06z EPS Mean for 1 inch plus is 82% for DCA which is the highest it's been in the past 4 cycles. The 4 inch mean is holding steady the past few cycles around 30% for DCA.
  13. rjvanals
    Euro is showing a pronounced warm layer from 850-700 close to the cities in the key 93-96 hr window that the GFS doesn't have. 925 layer is definitely better and 850 is marginally better closer to the cities than the 12z run.
  14. rjvanals
    its a good run compared to 18z (has DCA at 32)
  15. rjvanals
    12 z EPS has 31, 69 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 6 z EPS had 35, 65 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 12 z EPS has 92, 55 for 4,1 inch chances for Germantown 6z EPS had 78, 49 for 4,1 inch changes for Germantown
  16. rjvanals
    The storm is still 4 days and ~16 model cycles until onset. The final solution isn’t going to be exactly like any of the 12z runs today (for better or worse) so no reason to punt this yet
  17. rjvanals
    Worth staying up for the Euro (and having an earthquake) but it reminds me a bit of the 12/16/20 storm where 4-5 days out we looked good for significant snow but the mix line quickly punched into the immediate metro. It was still a pretty fun storm with some high initial rates.
  18. rjvanals
    @psuhoffmanand a few others honed in on this window around Christmas
  19. rjvanals
    We need the Low a further south than St. Mary's County for snow in immediate DMV but we could at least all get on the board w this track
  20. rjvanals
    18z GFS is better for immediate metro
  21. rjvanals
    Yeah I could see this being like the mid Jan 2022 storm as the cold air is a bit stronger out front on the euro vs it’s 0z run
  22. rjvanals
    It’s a week out and w the 1/4 system not yet resolved we have room/time for significant changes
  23. rjvanals
    Euro misses south it looks like; has a major difference w GFS w what happens w the 1/4 storm in the Canadian maritimes
  24. rjvanals
    GFS is interesting for the 1/7 storm
  25. rjvanals
    We got blue on the GFS for the 1/7 storm
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