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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Pretty miserable pattern - BN temps but not really cold enough for snow. That could change. I have been watching the trend since yesterday evening. The NAO is still there , but we are highly likely losing the Pacific. The only good thing(if you can call it that) is that the MJO and modeling don't jive. If global modeling is in error or the MJO is in error for CPC (one of them is wrong I think), then we are about to see some changes in modeling for the much warmer or the much colder - not a lot of space for a happy medium. The pattern is still going to change. That is not really the issue. The problem is that source regions are just hot garbage. And in February (especially late), source regions are important. As of now, I think our chances for more snow are dropping rapidly after the 25th. Prob going to have to score before then or hit a bowling ball late.
  2. Carvers Gap
    BN temps are still being shown, but source regions are too warm for anything other than a perfectly placed storm and cold rain.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Significant warming trend after the 20th which was not expected...is being shown since 0z last night. Could this be an error such as we saw in January? Maybe. The MJO is set to transit the cold phases and modeling may be well behind in terms of trends - I suspect this. That said(verbatim) what is being shown on modeling this afternoon is the last gasp of winter. Let's hope it is wrong.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS wasn't too shabby for E TN and NE TN. Good to see that storm still on modeling. There is a chance that could be a good storm for the southern half of the forum area. Blocking should be in full effect by that time.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It "appears" that modeling(reference CPC MJO) has settled on passing through the colder phases of the MJO 8-1-2-3. That should roughly coincides w/ Feb 14-March7. We will see if the MJO loops back into colder phases after that. My guess is that modeling is missing a pass through warmer phases after March 7th...but for now, LR ext modeling is fairly adamant of a 4-6 week cold shot. I tend to think 3 to be on the safe side.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It still looks like about 5 days out from the pattern flipping. Like early January, I think we will see some cool air masses roll through in waves, and then a colder air mass drop into the pattern around the 20th. The 6z GFS has the bigger storm back around that time as well. At 12 days out, I am not sweating the details. But on this run, we would have been sweating as the cold was a half day behind the storm. I do think between the 13th and 20th, we will see short warm-ups between cold shots. That is common for late winter and early spring, and I expect that to be a commonality throughout most of the timeframe from Jan13-March7. The cold (on the weeklies) lasts well into March. I don't know if I buy that, but we'll see. Nino springs can be quite cold IF Nino hangs on that long(which I doubt it does). If La Nina takes over quickly(which it will prob be in transition), May could be very hot. Nina summers lately have been wicked hot(say it like you are from Boston). I don't look forward to those - drought and heat. Hopefully, this Nina stays weak. If it does, next winter could be good. Regardless, I do expect extended summer to last well into early October. If it goes moderate strong to strong....gonna be throwing a heater. Yes, I am throwing some baseball themed references in there.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Possibly. I rule out very few things when it comes to weather. A cold pattern tends to squash severe season as Jax alluded to a few pages ago. A warm spring is what is exponentially dangerous. When this potentially cold pattern breaks, I think the warm that follows could be treacherous in that regard.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think this is going to come in waves. Spring will fight back in between cold shots....but good looking pattern coming together. As long as we have the Pacific, I think we are good.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is just ridiculously cold.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Ah, yeah. I don't even look at details at this range. I just want a storm to our southeast from this far out, and cold coming in. If we can get a storm on the front edge of that cold air mass, then someone in the forum area is likely in business.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That is a pretty brutal cold outbreak following that storm. So, seems to me that modeling is "trying" to form a from on a polar/arctic boundary. That makes sense. That doesn't guarantee a storm, but that is a plausible solution.
  12. Carvers Gap
    What went poof? Not following.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a full on blizzard for portions of the East.
  14. Carvers Gap
    1054 hp sitting on top of a big storm in the SE. What could go wrong?
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is set to bring the mother load on this run.
  16. Carvers Gap
    On pretty much all ensembles, the feature(and it is striking) the NAO that starts to build. If that is correct and not an error, that is significant. I have been hesitant to really jump on that boat as it failed during late January, but that is a prominent feature which would trump all other drivers most likely. During late winter, that is a "draw four" in Uno.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS jumped in the cold boat. I am confident in the 3 week timeframe from say Feb14 to March 7. If we manage to stay cold all (or most) of March, winter hasn't even started. That....is how cold modeling looks right now.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Technically, the Weeklies have sped up the change at 500 to Feb 12. Surface temp response still appears to be around the 15th with the strongest cold arriving around the 20th and after that relative to norms. Very similar progression to early January.
  19. Carvers Gap
    If the MJO didn’t look so squirrelly, I would roll with the Euro Weeklies today and say, “Extended winter is on tap!” But something feels off with this. I think it is going to be cold...but duration is sketchy. I do think a cold time frame from Feb 14 through the first week of March looks good. After that is what I am not sure about...if the Weeklies are correct, the Groundhog in PA is just a wee a bit off his game. LOL
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS still showing a fairly significant system around the 20-21st.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome! I have always wanted to see lake effect snow.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS (ensemble) is showing multiple days with highs near or just below freezing....Those are probably a bit too cold, but that just shows the potential for where this pattern could go. So far, still on schedule for cold arriving on Feb13-14th depending on where you live in the forum.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z suite has a great boundary setting up after the 15th. The CMC looks the best, but the GFS isn't terrible either.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensemble runs are cold for the aforementioned timeframe. The GFS (pasts two runs) is picking up on a stormy time frame around the 20th. As many of noted, the best winter storms are often picked out at range. It could go poof, but worth watching.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yes, on the ensemble 30 day map further above. That means there are likely colder shots embedded in the valley. For example, TRI finished only -1F for 31 days during January. Even -5 for a week is cold during Feb. But for sure, Feb is not mid Jan. Sun angles work against us and nighttime snows are preferable. Also, those temps are cold for a d10-15 ensemble as ensembles wash out colder and warmer solutions. They are rarely colder than that at this range.
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