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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12kNAM has filled in/upped totals in lower elevations of NE TN. 3k NAM is slightly down. SW VA nice increase on the 12k.
  2. Carvers Gap
    For posterity.... National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Friday)... Obs and webcams around the Cumberland Plateau and eastern KY are showing that the change to snow is beginning. Radar shows precip is blossoming, likely in response to increasing midlevel frontogenetic forcing. Over the next few hours, cold advection will continue to strengthen across the area and the changeover line will push east, with all precip in our area expected to be snow by 00Z. Snow banding will be possible as negative EPV values will coincide with the strong frontogenesis zone over NE TN and SW VA from 23-02Z. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in that area, and snowfall rates near or above 1 inch per hour will be possible. The dynamic forcing will exit our area by midnight, but we will continue to have very steep lapse rates under the mid/upper level closed low that will keep scattered to numerous snow showers going through the night. As this low slows progresses over the area, the chance of snow showers and flurries will persist into Christmas Day for locations north of I- 40, although additional accumulations will be very light and mainly confined to the mountains. The trend of the most recent model runs has been to reduce snow amounts slightly. This forecast package will follow that trend, with just a slight reduction in snow totals for the TN Valley from the previous forecast. Expecting 1-3 inch amounts in the Advisory area, with 3-5 inches in the lower elevations of the warning area, and 5- 10 inches in the higher elevations. The Warning and Advisory areas will not be changed. Travel conditions tonight continue to look very poor as heavy snowfall rates this evening will reduce visibility, and the very cold temperatures coming in tonight will create an icy layer underneath snow-covered roads. Wind chill values tonight will be dangerously low, in the range of - 5 to -15 F, and the Wind Chill Advisory will be continued.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Radar showing that the rn/sn line is approaching the I40-75 split in west Knoxville.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LOL. 2021 saying, "Hold my beer."
  5. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Knoxville is only about 2/3 of the way done with that storm. You all might have cracked 3'.
  6. Carvers Gap
    No kidding. 12 hours straight of heavy snow for TYS. LOL...and not even close to being over. One of those times one would like to see past 240.
  7. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy about that map, it is not even close to being done...not even close in NE TN.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Lots of blues, light blues, and dark blues on that Kuchera. That is a run for the ages right there. LOL Wow!!!!
  9. Carvers Gap
    And 240....yup. Let's reel one in from ten days out. LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Long range discussion...but the Euro at 228 says, "Hello." @AMZ8990....waay out there, but that is two straight runs.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Always high bust potential....LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Also seeing snow in Birmingham, AL, breaking out as the system swings through. Might be the western solutions are looking decent right now?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the cold front is pushing off the Plateau right now. Precip is filling in quickly.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Basically, the first line of precip slides past, the lee side forms, and precip builds back quickly. Can see that happening right now to the west and southwest of Knoxville. Fingers crossed modeling is correct!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Any of our Chattanooga folks seeing a changeover?
  16. Carvers Gap
    I like what I am seeing on the radar to the west of Knoxville and to the south. Looks a lot like that 16z run of the HRRR. Precip slides past, lee side forms, precip blossoms to the west.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Bring it!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the system is beginning to back up the flow just a bit as a line to the west of Knox Co is beginning to build - real time and not a model comment.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Been out running in this mess. Just got back.
  20. Carvers Gap
    17z HRRR is backing down a hair, but yeah...we roll with that right now!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Have to get all of the way to the end of that run. Lots more snow fell after that image. Fingers crossed, Jed!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Euro Kuchera...shift east a hair with heavier snow. Final run before the modeled storm.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Well, time to go running...this is gonna be a slog. Moderate rain. Been trying to get up the nerve or about two hours. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    15z HRRR( @Reb mentioned the HRRR trends earlier) has really beefed up in comparison to 12z. I am about out of memory space, but a Kuchera Ratio from 12z(full run) and 15z(full run) would be interesting to look at at the trend. Even comparing the same time of day is impressive.
  25. Carvers Gap
    MRX update...9:49AM .DISCUSSION... The main change for the morning update will be to end the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show wind gusts falling below criteria in the last few hours. The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track, as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow starting in the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM, and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone, there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could be high, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bands producing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and some low level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnow in NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in the hours after the transition to snow. The forecast snow accumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at this time.
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