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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Oh, I look at them. If a storm is going to fizzle, they will drop like a hot rock. I just don't take them overly seriously. Like any model, once you know the biases...they can be useful. I just don't use them, because I don't know all of the biases. MRX actually mentioned them on FB yesterday.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Right, I don't think anyone is jumping one way or another. We all know the drill. LOL. During the late 90s, we were once under a heavy snow warning(you may remember this!) at TRI for like 10-15" of snow. Nothing. So, yeah I get disappointed when snow forecasts don't verify...but I have seen enough to remain skeptical until even sometimes right in the middle of a winter storm! LOL. I have learned to enjoy different model runs if not just for entertainment and also for learning. However, trends right now are good. Let's hope they continue to hold. This a tough system as evidenced by the wide range of solutions still out there with under 36 hours to go. Glad to see the GFS trending away from the nada solution.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Great trend. Kuchera maps from Morristown to TRI should be impressive.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The RGEM(especially within 30 hours) as a general rule does well w E TN snow storms, but it is not infallible(no model is in these microclimates). And who knows...it may miss this time as it is definitely a western outlier with strong snow totals, but it has been persistent. I actually prefer the RGEM(not the CMC global) to the NAM. I really don't use SREF plumes - woefully inconsistent. For me the SREF and RGEM are world's apart in reliability. The toughest part of this storm is whether the cold reaches the back side of the precip. So, I don't really fault modeling one way or the other. In E TN, we all know the drill. Sometimes it hangs up on the Plateau and sometimes it is faster. "Low confidence" is a term I have been using lately. There are a wide range of options on the table right now ranging from a whiff to heavy snow. I do like looking at trends right now more than actual totals. Seeing models "bump up" or hold is obviously preferred.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man, I know. You are long over due!
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM and 12z NAM sort of get to the same point via two paths. The RGEM is quicker with the changeover and the NAM produces a lee side low which very temporarily backs flow...but that extra thump of precip and backing was enough to up totals. For higher confidence, really would like to see modeling continue to be aggressive like the RGEM in bring in cold air. The NAM setup is finesse stuff. Now, if we got both an earlier changeover and a lee side low...you get the GFS from a few days ago.
  7. Carvers Gap
    So looks like the 12z RGEM held(beefed up a bit) and the NAM made a step towards it. Will be interesting to see the global suite in a few.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Kuchera snow totals. One thing to notice is that bigger snow totals extend a bit more on the western edge(compared to 6z). I think this is because the system is not as sharp. A couple of days ago, the system was so sharp(go back and look at the post about the buckle), that it produced a narrower swath due to the snow axis be nearly vertical. Now, the axis is "leaning" more SW to NE(over the forum area) and includes more surface area. That has been a trend on modeling since yesterday.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM is a nice run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Though 36, the RGEM has snow in pretty much the same spots as 6z. Much quicker with the cold air and further extension west of the snow due to that.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM still looks steady through 27 when compared to 6z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    RGEM is a bit flatter at 22.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM is rolling. I can see hour 42 of all things...but it doesn't tell me much. Flow "might" be backed a hair more...though initially it is a bit faster.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think the change is most easily seen on the Tropical Tidbits website. The storm itself is much more robust. However, the hover feature on PivotalWeather will give you a good idea for Morristown - looks like those totals went up.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Let's see what the 12z RGEM does...but yes, closer to the 6z RGEM. I am super gun shy with modeling being all over the place. Let's hope the trend is "up" in terms of snowfall. The 3K NAM pops a lee side low and backs flow into areas north of I-40 - progressively more as one gets to the NC state line and progressively more NE. Honestly, that change has caught me off guard a bit as it had been adamant that the amounts were going to be light, even here in TRI. Without the lee side low, would have been similar to 6z.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That is a pretty massive move by the 3k NAM. Accumulations back into northern Knox Co with that...Significant bump up for SE KY, NE TN, SW VA, and W NC.
  17. Carvers Gap
    3K NAM is much more robust over NE TN and maybe even back to MRX. Pops a lee side low - finally seeing that dynamic. Doubt it is done correcting.
  18. Carvers Gap
    MRX mentioned that wind chill values could range from -5 to 5 above at their worst. That is COLD!
  19. Carvers Gap
    I have seen snow roll in out West one time which was similar to this - on June 14th!!! Got 5-6" of snow at 6,000'. Was an incredible day of fishing to boot. Motion is sped up a bit, but the wall of snow is what is impressive.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 for this date is much colder than other modeling for January, but its MJO is also much different(and maybe wrong?) as it is an outlier. But it certainly shows how to have a cold-ish pattern.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LR after the New Year is full of uncertainty. MJO is showing some signs of heading to low amplitude warm phases or COD areas of the warm phases. Will the -NAO connect into a ridge over the EC? Will a western ridge form and couple with the NAO, and thus create a very wintry pattern? What about the SSW? I am less and less of an SSW person. We had a great one during a spring a few years back. However, we had a super pattern upended by one since then. As I watch modeling become more uncertain in the LR(even more so than it has been), makes me wonder if the SSW is wrecking havoc. One constant on nearly all modeling is a very persistent NAO. I think that feature has probably saved us from a torch after the first week of December when we lost the PNA. Would be awesome to see the PNA and NAO both in favorable phases. We may have a chance of that briefly at times. So what do I "think" about January. I think the NAO is going to be there through at least mid-month. I think there are times that block will be so expansive that it will connect with the eastern ridge. I think there will be times when it retracts and forces most storms underneath like we are seeing now. I think there are times when we will see brief windows of a western and/or east Pacific ridge coupled with that NAO. Right now the cold source region for air is going be much above normal re temps with the exception of Alaska. It is entirely possible that we see a pattern where Alaska is cold and areas of BN heights stretch SE into the lower 48(northern Plains into the Mid-West). I am not as encourage by that pattern as I was a few days ago. I think a potential SSW is going to make, and is currently making, any LR modeling solution extremely suspicious right now. Let's just hope it doesn't take a favorable pattern and squash it. OTH, if it is possible the SSW could funnel cold into NA, add in the NAO..and it could get interesting. About the only things that I have marginal confidence about are the NAO being a constant, a persistent southern storm track in conjunction with an equal or greater number of cutters, poor cold air sources, and the MJO working back into the COD areas(at least) of the warm phases - not all of those at the same time. Right now it is like a great pattern is competing with a really lousy pattern....some of each will likely show. I lean AN for temps in January with normal snowfall. The great looking pattern from a week ago seems far less certain today. I do think a western trough is in play now for January.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro did move the snow axis over the GL ever so slightly eastward. Have seen similar trends on most modeling tonight. That finite detail might help areas to the southwest of the current cutoff if the trend continues. Think the overall trend has been more neutral tilt which prevents the slp over western NC and/or the spine of the Apps to pull further westward. Been good. See you all tomorrow.
  23. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro accumulation map is almost identical to 18z in E TN w a slight tweak upward over western Knox Co.
  24. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro is rolling. The 0z UKMET has somewhat upped totals east and north of Knoxville for pretty much the totality of the storm. It has been the weakest of all solutions for the past several runs. Since last night, it has slowly inched upward into a formidable storm to our north.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Even after time stamp on the map above, there is an upslope component that adds more to the NE TN and SW VA areas. Absolute best case scenario for sure...Cold rushes into the storm earlier and the angle of approach is improved. Chattanooga, portions of Alabama, and even northern Georgia get into the action. Western NC can score one of two ways...change-over and/or upslope afterwards.
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