Carvers Gap

We have between 1-2”. We know someone who already banged up their car this morning. Would have been thread worthy I think. I totally missed it!

Yep. I tend to agree. Hopefully, we see TN gets some more precip on modeling overnight and tomorrow. That would be a great trend.

You aren't kidding. It is the best I have ever seen it. Hopefully the width and breadth of this snowstorm spans Athens to Lexington and Fayetteville to Asheville. We needed that previously modeled snowstorm in Gainesville tonight. Where is the GFS when you need it?!

So you think room to grow?

I forgot it was NAM time, and just pulled up the kuchera map. I didn't even know to be worried. I think we got all the bad mojo out of the way tonight...just flushed all of it at once with the 18z Euro and Vol basketball. Ain't nobody could hit nothin' either on weather models or in Gainesville, FL, about 6:00PM. LOL. Something had to start going in the net at some point.

At this range, I don't mind seeing the NAM a little jacked up. That is its bias at this range.

The 0z NAM held serve and then some. Good to see it stay consistent.

Yeah, I think it is probably just doing its normal "late to the party" move as you noted earlier. We have had a good mix of models either going NW and SE. I bet we see a northern jog at some point during the next 24 hours. Really, I think it was just a missed phase as you also noted. @Daniel Boone, time to get in here.

That northern stream is what causes it to dig. Otherwise, it is flat and pretty anemic. That piece of energy is part of the reason we saw those will swings from run to run. When it dug in over Oklahoma, it really pops the storm.

The AI was good, though, right?

18z Euro AIFS looks very similar to 12z in terms of its qpf. Knocks about 0.05 off across the board, but not as drastic as the 18z op.

It definitely has been weaker for several storms - GFS/NAM/RGEM have been better with overall the qpf. I don't like the trend though, but it is one run. However, with the northern stream energy making it onto the continent, it is possible better sampling will improve the resolution of the forecast. On to the next run! 18z EPS vs 18z Deterministic. Pretty rare to see the ensemble have more juice than the operational. 18z Deterministic vs 12z Deterministic

Precip went way down....just ran out of gas as it crossed the region. I looked at 500. I don't see much different from 12z regarding phase. Maybe a tad more shear? However, it has been going down on accums since 6z. It has always been the weakest. Waiting to see the ensemble. May have been a hiccup. However, with the northern system being sampled now, we may see some changes over the next 12 hours. I wouldn't think large scale track changes, but we could see the qpf change.

18z vs 12z.....

The storm just ran out of gas on that run...break in continuity there by the Euro.

Big trend south.....by the 18z Euro. There is the new data going into the modeled storm I bet.

Out to 78...nice little storm. It's precip shield is a tick south(go figure). No mixing issues on this from for Chattanooga that I can see.

18z Euro seems to have more precip early in the run...out to 45. Noticeable tick north(not big, but noticeable...maybe 50 miles).

18z Euro is running. Looks steady out to 24...might be 10miles further north - maybe. I can barely see a difference.

The northern stream piece to this puzzle is just now coming on shore along the northern Canadian Pac coast and southern Alaskan coast. The last of the "big" changes would occur by roughly 6z tomorrow as the last of that onshore data gets ingested. Honestly, it is pretty amazing it didn't move much today. I suspect it is pretty well sampled now, but that might be part of the reason the 18z GEFS ticked south. My guess is this trends a hair south for about 12-24 more hours and then begins to lift back north. Been going on all winter w/ storms. The real interesting thing right now as deterministic runs increase snow totals....are ensembles now playing catchup? The 18z GEFS is starting to reflect deterministic totals.

18z GEFS(edit typo...I had GFS) has the snow axis moved about 150mi south. Looks very much like the 12z GEPS ensemble. Looks very much like the EPS.

We would like to welcome about the 18z UKMET as our next passenger. Out to 66, definitely is north with further juice. The 18z run only goes out that far, but it appears to be well on its way to joining the others. We will know at 0z.

Great share. My forecast range for TRI is a 57% chance of 2" of snow, or.......heavy snow. They got it covered! But to be far, that is kind of what modeling is showing.

Latest runs all but eliminate it. But like tnweathernut notes, best to play that one by ear. It is more of a disruption of southerly flow aloft by the mountains. I don't see it as downslope or dry slot. It looks more like a rain shadow effect. I am sure the former plays into the rain shadow. MRX is fully bought in to TRI getting slighted. We'll see. The straight line of winter storm watches along the TN/VA for this last storm left me less than enthused about that particular storm's product. I nearly got stuck on the interstate, because I followed their product for this last one. They are rolling the dice again. They may be right....

This afternoon MRX says this: Additionally, the 24hr probabilities of seeing great than or equal to 6" of snow by 7 AM Saturday have come up to non-dismissible levels now, with some +40 percent odds across significant portions of the CWA.