Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,741

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Since it is kind of a boring wx pattern, though we might discuss the heat in Mountain West and the absolute scorcher that is likely to come to pass. They have already begun to close rivers. Oddly, they had a good snowpack in many places(Wyoming Range), but the water content was very low. Other places had to depend on a wet spring there for additional moisture(to add to deficits). Now, couple low water with hot temps....bout to get bad out there. Looks warm here in the TRI with temps in the low to mid 90s for the next several days. It is going to be HOT!!!
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS in the front range of the Rockies is torch city with some temps approaching 110F+ in the medium range. Man, I hope that is not coming this way. Yikes.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Received some much needed rainfall yesterday afternoon/evening. Looks like I got lollipopped to the tune of 1.5." Water was ponding on the baked ground. We had places where 1-2" of water was on dry, brown grass. Looked really odd. Anyway, everything is much greener today but the humidity is wicked.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Powell, awesome to hear!!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting "opposite" to my my recent post. The CFSv2 is picking-up a Greenland Bock for early fall. If that occurs(and it doesn't bridge into an E Coast ridge) that is a great sign for those of us who like seasonal fall temps. I think climatology supports a warmer fall, but right now, I am not seeing that in all LR modeling. The Euro is nearly opposite of the CFS suite. So tough call this far out. The Euro has a really bad bias of being too warm in its Weeklies forecast. However, American modeling is often too cold. Split the difference, and you get seasonable temps. That said, if the American suite scores a coup(and correct me if I am wrong, but I "think"it picks up on Greenland blocking a bit better at range), extended summer would not occur. So bottom line, nothing is a slam dunk this far out, and while climatology(building La Nina) supports extended summer, one wonders if we can actually sneak through fall without the atmosphere responding to the Nina. I have learned not to discount the CFS of late.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Have to agree with Cosgrove, thinking fall is looking much warmer than I thought a few weeks ago. Anyone for another extended summer?
  7. Carvers Gap
    We had a nice rain shower this AM. It really soaked things. Thankful for that!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it has been crazy. I can probably drive 20 minutes and find similar departures. When this finally breaks, probably going to have more than we want!!!
  9. Carvers Gap
    0.08" of rain during the last 11 days. Pretty sure on the day where excessive rainfall was a potential that MBY got zip. Through nearly mid-July, there is potential for July to finish as TRI's fourth straight month w BN precip.
  10. Carvers Gap
    All the time. I-81 is kind of the demarcation line. East of that is generally a slight upslope until JC, and then of course one hits the Smokies. West of the interstate is more of a downslope. Part of what is going on right now might be that NE TN is sitting just close enough to a Bermuda high that precip is just running out of gas as it hits it. You can really see that on how the line this evening is forecast to dissipate just to the east of TRI.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yard looks great, Powell! Finally received some rain last last evening. It wasn't a lot(I don't think), but it was enough to keep the garden watered. Looks like today there is actually a chance for excessive rainfall in NE TN per NWS/MRX on FB.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Have barely had a drop here this week. Yards reflect this. I-81 eastward has not done as poorly. We have had a three minute "shower" which didn't even get the pavement under trees wet. Moisture was gone within minutes. Hopefully we can score some rain this weekend. The irrigation system in my garden is now paying dividends in this dry weather here.
  13. Carvers Gap
    TRI is 1.9F BN for temps so far this month. We take!!! Have had a few nights with temps in the mid 50s. We take!!!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Rain has been dodging MBY all summer. It did again today. Temps were pleasant though with some light drizzle/rain drops early with about a 60 second shower this afternoon. Swing and a miss today, but like John said...no complaints about the temps!!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    For now, as it did similar last summer....The Euro likes the West to be under a stout ridge.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro is in which runs out to six months which means it gets us to January. It has a full latitude trough running from the Rockies to the western Atlantic. Looks like it has a fairly strong EPO signal with a warm Alaska. Hopefully everyone knows the drill....huge grain of salt since this is July. Just thought I would share.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here is a nugget from the CANSIP monthly forecasts(BTW, it is usually blind to cold outbreaks so TIFWIW). It develops a -PDO(DJF) in conjunction with what looks like a La Nina which is displaced westward. That is torch city for our area IMO. Now, it could be wrong. ENSO forecasts have some skill at this range, but I have been burned many times in early to mid summer by an ENSO forecast that flopped. -PDO combined with La Nina is pretty much a ridge over the E and SE. No idea if the CANSIPS is correct. It does say that if we get winter Nov/Dec are our best options IMHO. Hopefully I don't have any of that backwards. @nrgjeff, does that seem right or am I oversimplifying this?
  18. Carvers Gap
    @Blue Moon, new forecasts(for each month) should begin to roll tomorrow with the CANSIPS being first and the Euro a few days later. Whew, been like a hair dryer in NE TN for the past couple of days. Steady winds and hot temps. It is drying everything out. Crazy that we are actually under a flash flood watch tomorrow!!! Need some rain big time here. We have been flirting with "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor for about a month(off and on). Everyone east of 81 got a great dousing of water a couple of days. Nada IMBY.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Man, just be glad you weren't in Eugene, Oregon, last week!!! The West has actually had incredible winters during the past decade in the northern Rockies and front range. The East is due, just not sure this is the year while fighting a La Nina. But who knows. I do think the IO firing in unfavorable locations of the MJO(unfavorable if one likes winter) is really throwing a wrench in things. @nrgjeff has been all over that. Bet it is a strong key this winter. I am just not sure if one can predict its frequency and intensity during the middle of summer, or I would have mentioned it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Usually try to get my winter forecast about around this time. Will try with some quick prelim stuff: 1. Think we have another early start to winter. 2. So far on seasonal models...fall doesn't look half bad. Pretty similar to the pattern now ---> transient ridges in the East and over the top with seasonal air over TN. 3. Would not be surprised if winter had a major thaw at the end of December again. Question is, does it come back? Not sure. 4. For whatever reason, just kind of has the feel of two similar back-to-back winters. But we all know that is very rare to have similar winters like that. 5. At some point, I think the trough will tuck into southwest Canada and allow for Pacific or Gulf air to warm us up. Been a reoccurring them for several winters. Duration will decide our fate. 6. I do think we see sharp bouts of cold - I think a little bit more than last year, but similar. 7. Really hoping we get some nice fall weather this year. I am digging these cool nights that we have had for the past couple of months. I suspect we get seasonal warmth for July and August. IF we can get fall to start on time, I kind of feel like the summer might be short. But beware of extended summer with Nina patterns or even Nina hangover patterns. Snowfall: Slightly below average(but somebody may get a big thump....so we will see) Temps: Slightly AN for DJF but a potential cool start, and some severe cold shots thrown in for good measure. Again, maybe some very long stretches without winter weather. But I like our chances for a bit more cold this winter. Precip: Normal
  21. Carvers Gap
    Use any thread you want. Thanks for letting us know. Prayers for all of you.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the humidity out there is nuts. Went for a run, and it looked like someone had dumped a gatorade cooler over me once I had finished. I have run on days in the low 90s, and been more comfortable. Whew!
  23. Carvers Gap
    We have received about 1" of rainfall here in Kingsport for the month of June. Not terrible, but we have struck-out quite a bit on days where rain seemed a given. Had a lot of wind yesterday that seemed to come out of the blue.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the Euro seasonal has an extended summer look with warmth continuing into September and October. Then, it shifts the ridge out West for November. For December, it has ridging out West and over Greenland. December at 500 looks really good, though the temp map is warm over Canada as there is some hint of cold over Alaska which is a poor teleconnection for cold here - mixed signals but overall not a bad look. It is June, so take with a huge grain. Will be interesting to see if the ENSO manages to hover in the La Nada range by mid-winter. Would be nice to see a bit of La Nina this fall as that would increase chances for an earlier start to winter, and then have it switch to neutral or a bit above. Not saying that would happen, but it might decrease chances of a mid-late winter Nina induced torch. Weak Nina all winter would be optimal IMO.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Some nice rain here yesterday. Temps have been very tolerable given early summer. Looks like that continues through much of this week.
×
×
  • Create New...