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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Very fine, light snow is falling in west Kingsport - remnants of the clipper.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are a mixed bag. The ensemble shows a window from Jan10-24th before the trough backs into the West for the foreseeable future. Oddly, the Weeklies keep temps at normal or just below even after the trough digs into the west. That tells me there is some variability in the pattern - meaning cold fronts push eastward at times. Honestly, it is a classic La Niña progression - and I am glad to be seeing the last winter of that front loaded winter progression!
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z comparisons EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Some big differences exist. Scoreboard is 2 HB blocks vs 1 PNA ridge. I lean EPS. A storm signal is present from Jan7th-10th.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Here is how fluid long range forecasting is. The image on the right is 6z of the CFSv2. The image on the left is 12z(most recent) of the same time frame. It is possible that things are swing wildly like this due to cold wx about to enter the pattern. Still, this is why things are far from certain. I think the image on the left is likely as it matches its own MJO progression....but that is no slam dunk when the image on the right is only from 6 hours earlier. Also, as you can see, the PNA is either absent or weak. The colder solution occurs w/ HL blocking over Greenland.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS, GEPS, and 6z CFSv2 show the Hudson Bay block as the primary driver and NOT the PNA ridge. I don't see that ridge being of any significant influence on LR modeling on todays runs. That could easily change at this range, and probably will. The HB block will work provided that it does not bridge to lower latitudes and form a ridge in the Plains. The GEFS and GEPS do like they allow enough space for colder Canadian(not Arctic air) to get infected into the pattern. The CFSv2 is maritime only. The opportunities we do have will be somewhat thread the needle if LR modeling is correct. I do want to see the Euro Weeklies as noted above....but they may not have the 12z trend away from the PNA. The pain in the neck right now the GOA low and Nina climatology which doesn't want to go to phase 8 of the MJO.. Those are the roots of the problem. Those GOA lows can take weeks to dislodge, but we will see. We are going to need the Atlantic to do what it did during this month...NAO block
  6. Carvers Gap
    I managed to make it through December w/ a trace of snow, but severely cold temps. I am beginning to wonder if this PNA ridge does NOT materialize or is too weak to be of any service. Remember the comment above when I was saying that modeling was waffling between a PNA ridge and/or HB blocking? It looks like the trend on today's modeling is for the HB block to hold. The positive is that we see plenty of storms w/ a good track. The negative is maritime air enters/stays in the pattern. There is very little ridging showing up in the LR in the West. Weeklies this evening will be interesting and needed. The lack of a -NAO is going to be a problem
  7. Carvers Gap
    Lesson from this week...don't sleep on clippers. Models definitely favored west TN. From this point to close out December, warming temps and then to January.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Any returns reaching the ground in Knoxville? It looks like it should be just judging by radar.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Good score right there!
  10. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 continues to waffle with almost every run regarding whether a trough can take hold just prior to the 10th(and hold through most of the month). The EPS, GEPS, GEFS, GFS operational....all look decent for a return to seasonal or colder weather by the 10th-ish. Again, I think the MJO forecast is prob the culprit. Please sign the waiver when discussions about the long range begin - LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Thank for the obs. That definitely helps as I am selfishly(prob unrealistically) hoping it manages to unexpectedly get over the Plateau. Yeah, I managed to get in a run yesterday. But DEFINITELy going to have to do some work after two great Christmas dinners yesterday. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The LR pattern looks reasonably good. We may well fight some zonal issues(there is another!) as the PNA isn't overly strong early on. Maritime flow blasts right through it. That said, the pattern at 500mb could possibly deliver normal temps for January...and that is plenty good. Still a nice storm signal between say the 7th and 10th.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks like Smyrna, Nashville, West Nashville, and. Clarksville are reporting light snow. Not sure that it holds together for NE TN as modeling shows it Fallon apart. Here’s to hoping for some mood flakes though!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Anyone in west TN or middle have clipper observations? I will be interested if the snow is reaching the ground.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Told ya'll not to sleep on that clipper. WWAs up in eastern Arkansas, west TN, northern MS, and western KY. Nearly every major cold shot for me as a kid had a clipper right behind it.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Suppression. Northwest jog. Cold/dry pattern. Wet/rainy pattern. Warm nose. Down slope. Kick the can. Best accums are always outlier runs. MJO. IO convection. Convection in the Gulf. Model loses the storm: OTS. Cold gets stuck on the Plateau. Low in the Lakes.....
  17. Carvers Gap
    Goes without saying. All caveats apply. I usually don’t list the long list of ways it can’t snow.
  18. Carvers Gap
    A gradient look is usual money here during January.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up for what the 18z GEFS is cooking after Jan5th. A PNA forms while still holding some of the HB block. This allows for an east/west storm track which is suppressed and just cold enough.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has decent storm signal Jan7th-ish. Slides the slp under TN and then up the coast. Long way out and just spitballing.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And looking back on the GFS struggles, those wild swings were possibly due to the anomalous cold in the patter during the long range. I do see models flipping around quite a bit right now. I would guess another cold intrusion is likely. The CFSv2 is all over the place.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The GFS seems to have returned to some sort of normal state. Let's see if the new upgrade is as good as last winter's at being able to sniff out storms and cold at range. The 18z GFS operational and the 12z GEPS ensemble are hinting strongly at cold air intrusion by around Jan 8th w/ the 500mb pattern transitioning w/ a cold front around the 5th. The 18z GFS again is hinting at snow showers during that time frame. We have the clipper tomorrow which Nashville already has a SWS for and some of western KY in a WWA. I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't beginning to track a new system around the New Year - meaning we can "see" on modeling the next opportunity to track (likely second week of Jan or early third). So far, there is no can kicking, but that wouldn't surprise me. There has been some question as to whether the Jan 8th system can break the ridge over the east and push it NE(maybe forming a new block over Greenland or pseudo block).
  23. Carvers Gap
    SWS out of Nashville... ...Accumulating Snowfall Possible Across Mid State on Monday... A quick moving storm system will approach later tonight and move across mid state region on Monday. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected with a possible change to light rain showers across locations around and west of I-65 Corridor during late afternoon hours as temperature rise above freezing. As temperatures lower below freezing again during evening hours on Monday night, isolated snow showers will continue before tapering off from southwest to northeast as evening hours progress. Total snowfall accumulations will range from less than a tenth of an inch southwestern portions of mid state region to around one quarter to around one half of an inch for locations around and north of I-40, especially locations west of I-24. This may cause some additional slick spots here or there on area roadways. However,no significant widespread travel issues are expected as of this time.
  24. Carvers Gap
    We don’t even need a real split...just a disruption. Often a true split results in cold going to Asia or the NA West. The current cold is due to it being jostled earlier this month IMO. A true split is often chaotic. But the SPV and TPV, excluding the current time frame and for the upcoming couple of weeks, has been disrupted enough to produce the NAO which caused record or near record cold. I am guessing that repeats in a less extreme way. But that is only a guess. It will be interesting to see. At this point, lots of factors in play in addition to any strat warming - climatology, MJO, snowpack over NA, rising QBO, maybe a new NAO decadal cycle???, impending Nino....
  25. Carvers Gap
    I think my working definition of an SSW is a heating of the strat which causes a disruption in the SPV. Sometimes that has no effect on the TPV. Sometimes it disrupts it normal position. This month we have seen the disruption begin in the TPV and work up if I remember correctly. We may be getting ready to see that again. The upcoming warm episode is likely due to the TPV centering and getting its footing back. With the Pacific so hostile, we are prob going to need some help. Without the disruption and consequential NAO this month....we would have likely been torch city otherwise as evidenced by the upcoming warmup. December was a textbook Niña of extremes though. The 12z ensembles all looked like they were making a transition to either a PNA/EPO ridge and/or HB block. That results in the SE ridge being abated. The SER presence on modeling is strong. It will come back as a standing wave every time the block relaxes. As of now I lean base warm with several extended bouts of cold. But unlike December, January’s climatology favors snow. We will see.
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