Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 12z Euro wins the belt back today. But will it keep it? -
That is a 100% cave by the 18z GFS to the Euro. Both solutions still look wonky as all get out...and not sure I buy either. Euro is king today.
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On another note, the 6z GFS and 12z GFS are flirting with a multi-day, over-running event after the cutter which follows the potential weekend storm. Not even going to get into details, but that has been on modeling off-and-on for 5-6 days I think. It is still there.
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I picture these troughs like a pendulum swinging. We want it neutral over Alabama and not the Carolinas. Not sure that is going to get fixed. To continue what I said above, we just need that base of that northern stream trough to get hit with the STJ turbo boost as seen on the GFS. Without that, the storm fires later which equals a later turn/recurve. The formation of the slp earlier would likely allow/force the northern stream to buckle and pull back on the slp, thus lifting its almost due north. If that won't work, we want a strong northern feature in order to get some clipper snow. GFS/GEFS/GEPS vs Euro cage match. CMC is injured and in the locker room for evaluation.
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But honestly as weird as this might sound, that Euro run is an improvement since it finally depicts the northern jet being organized. It looked like hot garbage at 0z. Get that energy feeding into a more organized northern feature, and that is not a terrible look. We need some fire injected into the base of that trough to force it to go into beast mode earlier. I think the general progression/timing/location of the trough looks pretty well set - and that likely won't help us. We need that low to fire a bit earlier in the run. With no blocking over the top, a strong storm would back west IMHO. The more strung out it is...the more it waits to turn northward.
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One more note about 12z....The CMC has not run, but its ensemble has as Holston notes. Both the CMC and GEFS ensembles have that energy over the GC and SE. The Euro is the only one without it. If we take into account known biases, the 12z suite is a storm signal for the EC. Time will tell just how involved E TN can get.
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Here are the comparison maps of the 12z Euro and GFS. Just watch the energy in the southwest. Notice how it feeds into the base of the trough on the GFS at 114 vs being strung out on the Euro. Then, take a look at 123. That energy on the GFS turns that trough natural tilt. At the surface, there is almost nothing on the Euro over the SE. Look at the differences at the surface at 111 in terms of precip over the SE. The Euro holds back that energy and strings it out. It then consolidates along the front piece of energy while the second piece heads to the Yucatan.
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12z Euro has a more organized 500vort look. However, when it holds back that piece of energy(aka drags its feet), the STJ lacks the power to create anything at all until the storm begins to recurve into the the big cities of the NE. That is a legit option, but seems like (said this before) bias coming into play. On the vort map, you can easily see that energy from the 4 Corners get strung out. If that energy had come out into that nice northern stream trough there would have been fireworks. I think that likely an error.
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Euro is a bust...held too much energy back and got strung out. That is a major bias of that model. It could be right, but that is how it looks when that occurs. It held back too much energy in the southwest and washed out STJ vortices.
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Out to 90 on the surface map, the cold front is either slower or just didn't make it as far. That "should" give the system room to move west. I may be wrong.
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Through 84, looks like a more energy is being held back by the Euro than 0z. That could be a bias on its part. Four Corners energy is notorious for being slow to kick on the Euro. That said, this system could maybe benefit from exactly that.
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At 81, the base of the energy is now centered over the 4-corners. That has traditionally been a good spot for eastern storms.
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At 75, noticeable digging more into parts of Utah...nothing there at 0z. Not sure this makes much of a difference, but would almost think this pulls back along the coast a bit east of the GFS.
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Not sure we see any major changes to this run of the Euro. Looks super similar, and phase will likely be late...though it does dig a bit more. Just likely won't be enough. So will hold off on any updates unless this run changes. Looks like a carbon copy of 0z up to this point.
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Out to 57, the Euro is a hair quicker than the GFS but digging a bit more into North Dakota than it did at 0z
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12z Euro is rolling. Out to 42, looks nearly identical to the 12z GFS.
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Did the operational even run?
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The strung out looks generally have gone OTS. The more organized systems of the past few days tend to pull westward. We need it to slow down just a hair. E TN is on the west side of the cone it appears which is better than not being in the cone at all.
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I thought it fired on the front piece and took a few hours for the trailing piece to catch-up. I "think" a more consolidated system pulls well west of that track. There is very little blocking this system from coming northward once it rolls out into the the GOM. We almost need all of the energy to consolidate in the central GOM and then kick as one piece. That would likely do it.
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Yeah, we need the fulcrum west which would cause the pendulum to start swinging a little further to the west for sure, OR we need the system to spin up earlier and allow the incoming northern stream to pull it back. Honestly, this looked a bit faster than the previous run...maybe slower allows the system to be stronger and the resulting stronger system pulls itself NW - that is how I think we are likely to score on this. Not sure how we can get that phase earlier. We need it crawling like a hurricane, and then it gets a mind of its own.
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The 12z GFS was a strong westward jog of the entire system. The bigger problem is that the STJ has almost a couple of pieces of energy which fire in the GOM. It is almost like modeling is not quite sure which piece to run up the coast. I think this "should" be a very consolidated system and less strung out.
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As John noted earlier, single digits to near zero are possible in its wake.
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12z GFS has the nor'easter. With continuity now on the GFS, looks like we have a storm to track this weekend. Now, we need a westward trend which "I think" could be accomplished with a stronger system. My guess is that as modeling finaling dials this in(sees it), it could be a very strong storm. Right now, E TN scores off the northern system and also gets a little bit of a deformation band deal as the storm goes by. We are probably going to see several variations of this on modeling.
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MRX calling its shot prior to the 6z GFS run....nice. Friday through Sunday By the end of the week, focus will turn towards a trough progressing out of the Great Plains and a developing system in the western Gulf. The overall consensus has been and continues to be that the system will take a track similar to a Miller A with uncertainty still remaining. The latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF keep the associated dynamics far enough south and out of phase with the trough for only light snow showers resulting as the trough moves into the area. Within most global ensemble members and the CMC deterministic guidance, however, the indication is for perhaps more mentionable dynamics/forcing in our region that could produce a more widespread accumulating light snowfall. In any case, 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures are expected to fall more than 2 standard deviations below normal by the weekend, likely spelling potential for far below normal temperatures, potentially colder than what has been seen this year. As such, the overall message remains the same with low probability HWO wording utilized based on uncertainty for snow and increasing likelihood of abnormally cold temperatures and cold wind chills.
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Looks like we are now exiting the time frame where modeling loses storms which is during the 4-5 day time frame. All three global operationals now have some sort of storm for the Friday to Saturday timeframe. If we can hold that look through the 12z suite, I would suggest confidence is growing that cyclogenesis will occur during that time frame along or just off the SE coast. I would think our best chance for snow is with the northern stream system which amplifies and phases with the southern branch. We certainly will be pulling for a northwest jog of the coastal low as well. The 6z GFS is very close to being a very good run for E TN - the Euro not so much but it still has a storm
