Carvers Gap

This is a look which is found on the GEPS and also to some extent on the EPS. This is very similar to the look which signaled the blizzard that just took place along the eastern seaboard. Talked to my sister-in-law in NE Maine. They had gusts to 77mph and 18" of snow.

I concur with Robert's remarks from WxSouth. We had begun that conversation at the end of the old January thread. The pattern will very likely be active, and it looks very cold after this brief warm-up. Huge bonus considering what modeling had shown originally which was a warm pattern and a break to spring. Now, it looks like a legit winter wx pattern.

We were in Knoxville yesterday for a band event at UT. That NE streak on I81 laid down a lot of snow on the interstate. We went rom nothing to lots of snow(snow had fallen the night before...we saw the aftermath) to a winter wonderland in about one mile. Then, the interstate went down to one line. There were a couple of tractor/trailers jackknifed. By the time we hit the Jeff City exit on I-40 it was pretty much gone. I had to put the vehicle in 4WD on the interstate. Super sketch conditions.

From WxSouth on FB: The period I'm particularly watching is about February 10th on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high. The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts. It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South.

@Holston_River_Rambler, we have a new weather teleconnection/model. It is called the HHIW(Hoop House in Winter) model. It seems to be more effective than the TIMS. We built the garden hoop house yesterday. About 26 hours later, I had to go shake it in order to get the snow off of it.

Heavy dusting here. It is often difficult to tell what is going to make it over the mountains between KY/VA. Bands can be pretty random at times.

Really what I look for is energy in the jet and whether it passes to our south. If that is the case, we have a shot at wintry precip. Looks like a couple of chances between now and Feb 7th. Next weekend is a timeframe to watch. I tend to think middle and west TN would have a really good chance with this. Some runs send it to your west. Some press the boundary very quietly southeastward. Just watch where the cold air sets up and that is where the energy is going to slide along. System after that is the one that has potential though if it doesn't get overly suppressed. As I noted earlier, February systems tend to be under modeled. They often will gain strength over time on modeling. Also, clippers can pack a punch during February for the same reason.

Yes. Out that far, I don't really do details unless just bored. It is almost a continual stream of moisture. It is basically the same set-up (just a different variation) of what has been shown for days. For me the question (as it was with the blizzard this weekend) is where it will occur. I won't say it is a given, but modeling has that look on almost every run.

The 18z GFS sure likes like a multi-day over-running event. It looks like a more traditional event than last year. The front pushes and the firehose is pointed at the boundary as it presses(vs stalls like last year).

Snow shower here on reasonably strong winds. Won't last long, but fun to watch.

Awesome info. And yes, the Ms are suspicious. I am fine taking a swing at that type of pattern, even if we miss. Honestly, after looking at the 12z GFS....I will be ready for spring if that is even close to correct. For everyone else, you can thank me...I went out and set up my hoop house for the garden and got the cold frames out yesterday. I turned the garden over with the tiller. I am going to try to get some cold crop stuff in the ground early - or not. The thought crossed my mind that snow could be a problem for the hoop house, but I forged ahead anyway. LOL. Honestly, I try to get those out about 2 weeks prior to planting cold crops. They warm the ground up. The BIG problem...if the GFS/CMC are right, it will be tough to do much in the way of gardening. I am good with snow...just no ice on the hoop house, which means ice is coming. LOL. My hoop house and cold frames are out early, but the reality is that it may not matter. Fun story, I told you all about fingers getting cold from working in the frozen raised beds. My wedding ring fell off, and I didn't notice it. I used a metal detector to find it. You might ask why I have a metal detector around the house. I have had to find it before in the garden. This marks 3 times finding it in the garden. Once, I lost it for a year and a half...it was in the garage under a shelf. We moved some stuff, and there it was. Tolkien would be proud.

Strong cold signal on both the 12 CMC and GFS. CMC is very dry which is similar to the Jan '84 analog. The GFS is storm. However, BOTH have mechanisms in place to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies eastward. If modeling handles this like they did the Jan 20-30th, the cold is over-done but the storm track remains active. Just because we didn't get hammered between the 20-30th, doesn't mean it wasn't stormy. We just missed on a couple which happens during the winter more often than not. If those models are correct and if snow precedes the cold shot...record lows are on the table.

...and to further add. We take cold in February and roll the dice. The storm pattern looks reasonably active, and confluence appears over this region for this go around. That is still in the 7-10 day range, so it could change. However, when the GFS begins to show multiple storms in the LR(on the same run...run after run), there is a good chance someone connects.

The really strong cold has been a mirage on recent modeling - meaning it hasn't verified. That said, we are looking at a gradient pattern where the cold runs west-> east in a horizontal line. It does this repeatedly. All we need is one system to ride that gradient, and we get a potent system. No idea if that verifies, but anything close would result in multiple storms to track I would think.

The 12z GFS is loaded for bear yet again.

Yes. Good call. I remember that now. I remember riding in the backseat of my parents car, and the inside of the windows were frozen. LOL. Yeah, those late 90s dates I stay away from. You may already have seen this...those late 90s dates have been in their analog packages for much of the month of January. I think they must be using them to buffer the extreme cold runs which are not verifying often.

Re: 6z GEFS snow totals....I count ~14/30 members with 6" or more for NE TN w/ plenty of big dogs. That was a good run.

Pacific dominated ridging without Atlantic blocking is cutter city. It is why folks in middle and west TN like the PNA/EPO ridges. We(in E TN) really need Atlantic blocking to accentuate the pattern here. That said a combo of a cutter and a caboose system following will suffice or a 50/50 low. Also, if we get a ridge out west which isn't too tall, we can get clippers or northern stream systems. In E TN it is more of a nickel and dime your way to average approach. ...All of that said, the 6s GEFS has really beefed up its snow mean. I suspect (certainly don't guarantee) that February could be a good month. February of 14-15 was really good. CPC has flipped us cold for the second week of January. Here are the analogs for the d8-14. I accidentally found this analog a couple of days ago when I entered in January 85 as January 84. January 84 is nearly a perfect analog. @John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84? I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong. It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.

Glad to see the thread. Will probably be a very light event, but given how cold the ground is, and the cold which will follow...this thread is warranted. Fourth thread this month!!! Interestingly, I was working in the garden yesterday in order to get things ready. The ground in my raised beds is still frozen. I didn't realize it while digging, but I couldn't feel my fingers once it was done.

Don't look now, but the 6z GEFS sort of has the 0z Euro look which had the old GFS look which the GFS lost after having it in the d15-16 time frame. LOL. Modeling is back and forth between cutters and a eastern TN Valley cutter. I am beginning to lean Apps runner or eastern Valley cutter. Makes sense given that is a favored La Nina track, and modeling trend that way overnight. In the LR, you really can't ask for a better look on all three ensembles or February. Sure, it could be a mirage, but if you inject cold into a traditionally active February pattern...fireworks are going to be a likely result. Might be a fun month.

Strong PNA/EPO ridge along with a gradient pattern which is set by a cutter which precedes those systems.

Kind of a cool story. It has been snowing in Jerusalem. Northern Israel received a bunch a few days ago. It is not as rare as some report, but it it still a beautiful place when it snows. I spent two summers in Israel many years ago, so I tend to follow things a little more closely there than I would have otherwise. One of their biggest snows came on December 13, 2013. FUN FACT.....If that date rings a bell, that is the very date that our Tennessee Valley sub-forum was formed!!! Below is a 500 map of the US during Dec 2013 and a map of the the current d10-15(2022) 6z GEFS at 500. What followed this look was a pretty good weather pattern. Obviously, our past December didn't look like that, but that is the pattern over the US when Jerusalem received a ton of snow in 2013. https://www.timesofisrael.com/snow-blankets-jerusalem-transforming-city-into-winter-wonderland/ Thunder in the mountains....snow in Jerusalem. I had some friends living over there at the time. I remember looking at these awesome snow photos. Below is what eventually would follow Dec of 2013. This it the Jan-Feb '14 500mb anomaly map....a pretty good pattern if you dig back through the threads. Maybe we have an active February and/or March coming up???

6z GFS also went big again.

Good write up by MRX.... SR .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)... Key Messages: 1. A wintry mix of of rain and snow is possible on Friday changing to all snow late in the day as colder air arrives. Impactful snow accumulations will be possible across the mountains of East Tennessee and higher elevations of southwest Virginia. 2. Frigid temperatures are expected Friday night through Saturday night with wind chills well below 0 across the higher elevations. 3. Warming temperatures expected early next week with above normal temperatures and increasing rain chances late next week. Discussion: A strong shortwave will dive southeastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday morning with a strong 130 kt jet streak across the Tennessee Valley. A surface cold front extending from a surface low across Canada will slide southeastward with shallow, Arctic air making its way southward on Friday. As this upper jet streak shifts eastward, and this northern shortwave phases with a southern shortwave vort max, the upper trough will amplify across the Eastern CONUS and a surface low will quickly develop and strengthen off the coast of South Carolina. Cross sections show a mid-level frontal slope from 850mb to 500mb across western NC and along the TN/NC mountains late Friday with widespread precipitation near this feature. The GFS and NAM show this expanding shield of light precipitation across far eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina late Friday with the bulk of precipitation east of our forecast area. However, current guidance does place zones along the TN/NC state line within a region of favorable omega and some weak conditional instability beneath the upper trough axis late Friday afternoon which could enhance snowfall rates across the higher elevations of the far eastern Tennessee mountains. As this system moves northeast, NW winds will be relatively strong across the region Friday night with continued low-level moisture within the -12 to -18C DGZ from air sources from the CCB and Great Lakes. This will be a favorable setup for efficient NW flow snowfall and significant snow accumulations across the higher elevations. Will withhold on any Winter Storm Watch for now, but if trends continue to favor potential significant snowfall, winter weather headlines will be needed within the next 24 hours for the mountains. Temperatures will be cold enough on Friday night and Saturday morning that minimum temperatures across the mountains will be in the single digits with wind chills near -10 to -15F across the higher terrain above 3500 feet elevation. A Wind Chill Advisory or Wind Chill Warning may be needed as we get closer to the event. With this very amplified system, the cold, Arctic airmass will settle across the region on Saturday. We will likely see a 48 hour period with most locations below freezing. With this amplified pattern, ridging begins to build back in on Sunday and Monday with temperatures rising above normal by Tuesday of next week. With high pressure in control, expect a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show strong ridging across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians toward the middle of next week with temperatures above normal. This southerly flow will result in increased moisture across the region with an area of heavy rainfall expected somewhere from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians. Details on the exact moisture axis are still uncertain, but it appears a more warm and wet pattern is coming late next week with colder air likely in its wake.

Looks about right. TBD snow amounts with the northern stream feature for TRI, SW VA, and SE KY. Looks more nuisance variety to me. Anything from a trace to 2” is possible with cold air already in place and ground temps cold. Southwest facing slopes should see the most. KPT is a tougher sell on this.