Carvers Gap
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The thing I am noticing is a buckle(some might call it a weak SER or even just a seasonal upward curve of the jet along the coast) right after that system comes through which causes the ice storm. The front moves slowly enough that it drags its heals in the GOM. That allows another wave to form and head northward. The GFS has a tendency to be amped, and this could be right in the wheelhouse of its own bias, but we'll see. Anyway, if something forms underneath that buckle, it is going to try to gain some latitude.
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The 12z CMC is going to try the same thing. It has that little 500mb vortex (much weaker) pushing north of the stalled front along the GOM. Whether it amounts to anything...not sure on the Canadian run.
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12z GFS....And there is another low right behind it.
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Great look, now we just need to see it get some support. Just looking at the configuration of the 500 pattern after this brief warm-up(warm-up for some....for others it is ice), supports a storm lifting almost due north out of the GOM. Now where the launch pad for that storm will be(genesis thereof...) is the million dollar question. The GFS is likely correcting towards other modeling. So, it is entirely possible the 18z run will be suppressed further due to that correction. That said, there have been some operationals which are taking a slightly inland track, but are weaker. This run pops a stronger slp. The synoptics are there for a storm to press northward. I would guess this storm will possibly originate somewhere between Mobile and say Ocala. For us that difference in origin is hammer time or a whiff.
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12z GFS...and there it is.
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It looks pretty locked in...I could be wrong. I could see the transition line between rain and ZR move around 50 miles or so. I think the threat to western areas is fairly dialed in. Now, if that line pushes into BNA...that is the question.
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As we watch what the 6z GFS had this morning in the LR...it might be worth again noting that the GFS nailed this storm in the d14-16 range. It would waffle around a lot in terms of placement, but just an impressive job by the GFS. It is simply uncanny how close that looks to what was placed in the banter thread about 2 weeks ago. Hats off to American modeling this winter.
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Here are the 0z EPS(left) and 0z GEFS(right) for d10-15 in the LR. That is a great look for a snowstorm. The 6z GEFS looks a bit better as it has just a hint of a SER(prevents suppression of storm systems).
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It is really important to look at the surface when looking at the LR, especially with a trough which is positively tilted. The 500mb maps will not tell the entire story. LR modeling continues to keep this region in the ice box for the next 2-3 weeks. We have more cold air than we have had during previous winters over NA. I suspect an at times cold, normal precip, and wintry pattern for some in the forum area through the first 2/3 of Feb. I could be wrong...and I will always preface a monthly forecast with that last statement.
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Ensembles look good, which when past d10 this winter, have been very reliable. There are some warm-ups between extended cold shots. Operational models are going to be all over the place as we get closer to spring. Eventually we are just going to get to spring! LOL. Looks to me like we are going to end-up with a positively tilted trough over the mid-section of the US and the eastern US. That is over-running city for whoever is north of that cold from. I need to go back and look at 14-15, but pretty sure that was similar except it was more northern stream stuff. This weekend will be storm one of that setup. I think the pattern, absent a strong MJO signal, is going to simply repeat what it has been doing. With the lag that accompanies the MJO, we may well scoot by most of the month in this pattern. For eastern folks, we need a strong cutter to drive the boundary southeastward or a 50/50 low to pop. Either way, we continue to see winter produce across the forum. Will be interesting to see how far southeast the boundary is pushed for the TR/FR system. Then, we have the sneaky system Sunday that could be nuisance variety, but interesting.
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From the NWS Office in Memphis: National Weather Service Memphis TN 516 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 .UPDATE... Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/ DISCUSSION... Well it looks like we will be dealing with a fairly significant icing event for the Mid South later on this week. Today will be another great day for the region as we warm into 60s again. Today will be a great day to enjoy the weather as things will go down hill Wednesday through Friday as a front will approach the region. A few showers will develop tonight and should continue into Wednesday. There could be a small break Wednesday before things really go left. The arctic front will start to nose into the NE AR/Mo Bootheel late in the day and temps there will start to fall. Wednesday night through Thursday night is when the greatest chance for impactful winter weather across the region. Guidance is coming in more aggressive with the cold air and that in turn is causing forecast ice accumulations to go up. Soundings look very messy for the Mid South with several hours of Freezing rain and sleet across the area. Some of the total are downright nasty, but some of that is sleet. We have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include more of W TN, E AR, and a small portion of MS. I am very concerned with the icing issues that this system could pose as it could be fairly significant with numerous power outages and very hazardous driving conditions. We will have to monitor for the upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings...in all likelihood they would be Ice Storm Warnings as snow will not be the dominant precip type. We are looking at the possibility of 0.1 up to a half inch of ice possible across portions of the Mid South when its all said and done. Again, the time frame for the most significant icing looks to be late Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Please stay tuned to the forecast because this is a very conditional situation and any fluctuations in temperature or placement of the arctic front will be the difference in you seeing a very cold rain or a significant ice storm. Please stay weather aware as we try to sort out all of the details over the next 24 hours. Before all of the icing issues we will have heavy rainfall on the warm side of this system. Up to 3 inches of rain over a good portion of the area during the course of this event which may cause localized flooding. Precipitation will taper off Thursday night with temps in the 20s by morning under a brisk north wind. Below normal temps and dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s.
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The NWS has added more counties in western TN to the WSW. There are now some counties in NW MS in addition to the northern 2/3 of Arkansas. I wold suspect there will be more counties in TN added. For folks in those areas, time to make sure to have a backup heating source and power source. Looks like the ice portion of the storm will run the Mississippi River and also along the Ohio.
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6z GFS run had a ton of wintry looks in it. The 0z Euro has a light wintry event on Sunday for the eastern Valley.
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Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for portions of Arkansas and west TN. @Mr. Kevin, are you under a WSW?
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This is the 18z RGEM and 18z GFS.
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If this west TN/Arkansas/ sw Mizzou ice storm is still showing up tomorrow AM, might be worth a thread. That was a nasty 18z GFS run...
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Yeah, it definitely has some DGEX DNA in it for sure. Right on time...it folds completely for the weekend. What is crazy, it has been eerily accurate at the d14-16 range though.
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Man, the 18z GFS just folded big time to the 12z Euro and 12z CMC. We are now tracking a low to our SE for the weekend. It may result in absolutely nothing, but it isn't a cutter. That is a clean pass. @nrgjeffThat TX loss...oof. Great comeback, but felt like watching a storm hammer the NC side of the apps, and not make it across. Almost there, but things went sideways at the last second. Wait, I have done that too!
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The 12z GEFS is also more formidable or the Thursday system with the potential for ZR to sweep across most of the state behind a powerful cold front. The 12z GEFS does "see" the storm for this weekend, and it is not a cutter like the operational.
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12z Euro with a system similar to the ICON for this upcoming weekend. If we actually blended the GFS/Euro, that would be a nice solution.
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Really though, the ~Feb10-20th timeframe looks like our shot...and then we climb towards spring.
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Looks like the 12z GFS is amped for the weekend system, but the CMC/ICON are not at all. ICON has a an interesting setup.
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Looks like the February thread is up and running...If one of the mods could post it, that would be hugely appreciated.
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Sever ice event is back on the 6z GFS for middle and west TN.
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I mentioned a cool potential analog connection in the January thread, and am going to place part of it here just to test it. I am also seeing some memories from friends playing in the snow in 2014 pop-up on social media. I noted that I file away times when it snows in Jerusalem. I won't repeat the same post. However, it did snow knee high to a giraffe in Jerusalem during December of 2013. Just this past week, heavy snows fell in the Middle East again. Snow in Jerusalem is not as rare as some news agencies make it out to be. It is at elevation and gets its share at times. Northern Israel around Hermon gets regular, annual snowfall. So, I compared the wx maps in the US from December 2013 to modeling for February of 2022. Today is just an extension of that. This is the 12z CFSv2. Uncanny the resemblance to December of 2013. They look like copies. When Israel received huge snows during 2013, this is what the map over the US looked like. It is almost a carbon copy of the map above. This is what followed in the US that winter.
