Carvers Gap

Yeah, it has the look of a legit storm. I remain wary as I have seen storms slip even which way this winter regarding MBY...but that storm is sitting on pretty much each model now.

Climatology very much supports a snowstorm in this time frame. I don't know if it is the equinox that is about to occur, but it is crazy how many significant storms have occurred around this time frame(nationwide and not just regionally). Google March 12th and snow storms - CRAZY. It could just be that winter breaks about this time at this latitude. JB pointed out that this winter, after BIG warm-ups, there have winter storms which occur immediately after. So, that is another point as well.

For all intents and purposes, this is probably the biggest storm we have tracked this season in terms of potential. I realize, we can't shovel potential - quote me on that. LOL. But a March storm, as John notes, originating in the GOM and just exploding as it races northward is fun to watch. We don't get to track something like this everyday. So, regardless of whether is snows in MBY...super fun to track.

In addition and somewhat repetitive on my part....This storm is riding a strong cold front. It is going to ride that boundary. As is, just turn that sucker loose where the 18z Euro had it along the GOM...and let's see where it goes! LOL. That is a wild look.

Just looking at the surface pressure map, there is not banana high over the top. What would keep it from coming way NW is that there is a monster cold shot that is acting as a kicker. Some of the storms this winter have trended quickly NW as they were nearly cut-off from the jet. This storm is basically sitting in a parabola that will force it to recurve up the coast. IMHO, it can only come NW only so much. Now, it could come back far enough that we get some energy transfer and E TN is fighting thermal profiles. The Plateau looks like money. With cold crashing into the back of this, quadrants may factor only so much. I am actually equally concerned this could trend south and east of us...it basically did that on the 6z GFS. Once it starts coming back NW, I worry less about an OTS solution. Now, we have to watch the NW jog in E TN. Middle and the Plateau are just about locked in now. Back to the original question, the front is going to kick this thing eastward. Just remember, to get big snows you want to be right on the line where heavy rain turns to heavy snow.

18z Euro doesn't have energy handoff as the primary appears to originate along the GOM near the Mississippi/Alabama border. That is a near perfect tract for a storm. There is a warm nose prior to the main area of slp forming. Cold is just crashing into the back of this system. This might be a deal where the storm forms and lifts NNE vs ENE. This is a true March storm track if real. I feel a little less optimistic about MBY, but growing confident that this storm could be significant for some in the forum area.

18z trend might be a slightly northwestward jog. That to me signals that modeling is now settling on a track. Now, we will likely see some wobbles. At this point, it looks like a winter storm(maybe major) is growing increasingly likely for someone in the forum area.

Here is the 18z Euro(left) compared to the 12z Euro(right). Very similar look w/ may a slightly slower and very slightly westward track. The 18z Euro would have likely hammered E TN. Accumulation maps stop right before it swings by and right as it deepens. Notice the 18z Euro is much strong...991 vs 995. Right now we are seeing a ramp up of intensity on modeling. Here is the 18z GEFS(left) compared to the 12z GEFS(right).

The good thing is that cold air is in play. It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary. What could go wrong? The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good. The eastern trend has me a bit wary. But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.

I know. LOL. That track(12z GFS/Euro) is the historical gold standard for E TN winter storms. Whether it verifies or not remains to be seen. Nailing down a track this winter for a good storm in E TN has proven to be a tough task!

So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement. The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes. Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD. I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof! Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key.

Here are Kuchera accumulations and also comparison of surface low placements. Be sure to remember the new run is on the left. The 0z run is on the right. Track is pretty much my only concern at this point. The CMC, GFS, and Euro are very similar w/ varying degrees of intensity. Biggest concern is that this trends too far to the East at this point. Heaviest snow axis at 12z is from the Cumberlands to the Smokies.

12z Euro is again a clean pass which is an inland runner.

12z run from the Euro is a great look!

Watching the 12z Euro run...so far very similar to the 0z but slightly SE and maybe a hair quicker.

LOL. Very true. Temps in the 70s have sent the board into hibernation. If future runs hold, it will get hoppin'.

Did that drop 6 feet in southern Canada? Is that the same storm?

@tnweathernutmentioned how rapidly it deepens. Take a look at what it does in 18 hours from the time it leaves central Georgia. Impressive.

No idea if that run is correct as the GFS can over-amp things, but that would likely produce thunder snow with those rates.

Boom. Big run.

12z GFS is looking good at 90. Clean pass.

Solid look on the 18z GFS ensemble as well.

Great look. Low cuts through E TN...secondary pops to our east and moves slowly enough to allow the remaining moisture to thump even parts of E TN.

If this is there at 12z tomorrow, probably time to start a thread. The 18z would be pretty epic for middle/west TN...and E TN still gets in on the action.

This could trend totally to the SE and slip by...so be warned. The Euro trending back this way is a good sign. Here is the clown map for the 12z GFS.