87storms

Slightly different than Sunday's fish storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=72

this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180

You mean you don’t like it when it’s below freezing, windy, and cloudy with no snow?

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

Eastern shore is basically a different climate than i81, so I could absolutely see how this ends up a Richmond/Norfolk to OC special.

So somewhere between pretty damn good and awful?

Yea we don’t really get the crazy surprise storms anymore. The models also do a better job at drying up northern stream systems as they cross the mountains. Those types of systems were a source of busts back in the day. One of the presentations at the AMS in New Orleans mentioned how there’s gradual improvements in modeling even up to day 10.

Loved the Cap Center…my dad used to work the Caps and Bullets games amongst other events. Miss those arcade games at the concourse level as well. 18z incoming…

We might need snow more than the Wizards need a 50-win season.

Tbh, I have absolutely no idea lol

If it helps, I’m about to play basketball on my lunch break. Radar looks great for anti-rain.

I'd be super hyped along the coast in this progressive flow. Could be a chaseable event for the western crew.

I trust that trough for Frederick like I trust a Wizards draft pick. Congrats eastern shore, though.

Definitely can see how the Pacific is the source of our overall issues the last few years. Everything is just nudged too far east. Just about every northern stream wave as well. Where are our clippers? I can’t even remember the last clean 1-3/2-4” event from a clipper moving south of our latitude. Even with today’s storm, you can see the overall pattern and why we are not getting a snowstorm from it: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 It’s just a really sloppy pattern for us to get any snowstorm. Maybe having all that cold air to the north will allow for a more zonal flow later next week. Tbd.

I'm not sure it's wild anymore lol

I’m here after viewing the 18z gfs. Arctic cold leading into a southern stream feature sounds kinda fun.

So next week is really gonna be several days below freezing without any snow, isn’t it?

I don’t even think it’s possible with that atrocious storm track aside from maybe 15 minutes of snow showers as the precip collapses into the coastal.

Gorgeous start to the day. Very unusual to have this much sunshine in the cloud shadow of Frederick. Looks like another round in a continuous onslaught of generally pointless, La Nina-driven northern stream waves is encroaching from the west, but hopefully the clouds will hold off until this evening. Would be nice to get an unveiled sunny day up here for a change.

Gotta start somewhere lol

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

AI is an overused term. At its core, it’s just advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms. We’re just able to do more now because of the advancement of technology that’s allowed us to, for example, feed streaming data into neural networks and the like. I think it’s all pretty interesting from a math and stats perspective, but it’s still garbage in/garbage out, in the same way that bad data will lead to a messed up best fit line on a basic 2D graph. The biggest issue I see is the black box nature of the more advanced architectures. You need a PhD to understand why some of them work, though there is software out now that is focused on interpreting how algorithms come to the conclusions they do. I haven’t used it, but I know it exists. The other issue is that, at least in the weather forecasting AI world, I’m pretty sure the predictions are made based on how well the ML components can identify patterns instead of relying solely on primitive equations. I’m not sure how you study that from a physics perspective, per se.