87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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March is gonna be epic… Match Madness, that is.
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I was hoping for a more classic torch this week, but seems to be favoring cooler than expected so far.
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We need an El Niño in the worst kinda way.
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45 degrees here. Way too cold outside today.
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Yes.
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Eh, gotta see the data to see how much to weigh that type of median change. I think it would be more fruitful to take the interquartile range and get the average from that, so there’s no outliers skewing things.
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Yea, but that’s why the confusion matrix exists. In machine learning, having a 90% accuracy is fruitless if you’re missing all the true positives (leading to 0% precision and 0% recall). Likewise, if you say it’s gonna snow all the time, you’ll catch all the true positives (snowstorms), but even though your recall will be 100%, your accuracy and precision will be 10%. F1 score is a key metric in weather forecast scoring, I would imagine.
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I will say though that to my surprise one of the basketball courts near me is now 99% dry…which was actually surprising, though it does get some good sun (when there’s sun). Fog eating snow might actually be a thing. Really won’t be much left of this snowpack by next weekend.
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This is the Cal Ripken of snow cover. It’s gonna take a day off on its own terms.
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Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.
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The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.
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To be fair, I think our bigger miller b busts are from systems that are almost entirely northern stream dominant with very little Gulf Stream return flow leading in. I think the question with this next storm is how diggy that NS wave is.
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This is probably the more rational approach. I recall someone saying we’d probably be happier not having access to op runs beyond day 5 lol.
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That storm sucked in Frederick lol
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Yes, but as someone who has lived here long enough…it’s a caution flag.
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My post was completely objective. It got worse from 6z. If run to run shifts don’t matter, then what are we tracking? Also, I would put a lot of weight on the euro ai at this range. It lasered in pretty well at 7 days with the last system. That said, I never said I don’t think it’ll snow…just kinda weird to see all the digital snow hype at this lead time especially with the mild pattern leading in.
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No, but you do if you’re getting hyped over one run at this range lol.
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That’s significantly worse than 6z lol. Trends are the only thing that matters at this range and that shift wasn’t good. We’ll see if it holds steady or continues to be a late phaser over the next day or so.
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If this ferocious cloud deck can thin out, then those leftover mounds are gonna take a hit.
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Yea it was basically a Miller B style screw job for them.
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I think we would need to score in the same way that Charlotte did with their last storm, which was mostly from the upper level low instead of being in the Raleigh screw zone (our equivalent).
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That rain yesterday made a serious dent in the glacier cover here with a lot of grass showing. Even seeing parts of basketball courts now. Prob won’t be much left aside from mounds by the end of the week.
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Sun is popping out here earlier than expected. Lots of clearing to the southwest.
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That would be the perfect snowstorm. This week can then be used to continue melting whatever foulness is left as well as attempting to shed a couple lbs (I’ve gained an easy 10 lbs this winter lol).
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Might make a run at 0.5” after all.
