87storms

Gotta start somewhere lol

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

AI is an overused term. At its core, it’s just advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms. We’re just able to do more now because of the advancement of technology that’s allowed us to, for example, feed streaming data into neural networks and the like. I think it’s all pretty interesting from a math and stats perspective, but it’s still garbage in/garbage out, in the same way that bad data will lead to a messed up best fit line on a basic 2D graph. The biggest issue I see is the black box nature of the more advanced architectures. You need a PhD to understand why some of them work, though there is software out now that is focused on interpreting how algorithms come to the conclusions they do. I haven’t used it, but I know it exists. The other issue is that, at least in the weather forecasting AI world, I’m pretty sure the predictions are made based on how well the ML components can identify patterns instead of relying solely on primitive equations. I’m not sure how you study that from a physics perspective, per se.

I don’t think it’s been that great unless you enjoy moisture starved northern stream systems that mostly leave us with wind and clouds. I’d like to see a more established, deeper, and wester east coast trough. The drought conditions resulting from such a detached, inconsistent southern stream is getting legit.

We’re due for a March triple phaser.

Is this the can-kicking portion of the program?

Latest gfs now has a closed low over PA. Before it was looking like it would be south of our lat, though even in those runs it was a late phaser lol. Maybe we can get some snow showers from this as the colder air moves in.

Just kinda looks like that southern feature runs too far out ahead of the northern stream energy. Maybe the coastal can develop quick enough to throw some moisture overhead as the main ull swings thru.

It’s legitimately windy right now. Just experienced it.

That too, but I think we just really need a return of the stj. Met a friend at Charles Town today and noticed the Potomac and Shenandoah looked pretty low.

Trough is too far north and east…like always now. But at least we get wind.

Saw it roll right off Catoctin. I got skimped, though.

The next weekend thing looks like it has more potential with what seems to be better moisture return from the gulf. Trusting a moisture-starved system without having cold air locked in prior is risky business. We’re better at cold air chasing anafrontal systems, right?

Any thoughts on severe season?

We need the gom to wake up.

Ew lol

The primary theme seems to be that things get going too late due to the trough being too far east.

Yea I remember that vort being a compact fireball at h5 riding up from the southwest.

It’s not on the weekend either.

We’re due for a successful implementation of cold chasing a late phasing Miller B

He lives out towards Ashburn, so kind of in the same microclimate as me. He was a legit aviation met, so I picked his brain a bit when I saw him in the office, but I don't think he tracks these types of storms like we do lol (though does root for snow).

My previous coworker (who I've kept in touch with) was an operational forecaster for years and said it could be a messy mix changing to snow. Likes the potential, but it depends on how much cold air gets wrapped in behind the low.

What’s clear is that the wimpy warmup we had this week is looking temporary. Winter seems to be returning next week to the chilly base state we’ve had since September.

That actually has my attention.

Phenomenal precip event here and it’s nudged me to have a solidly productive morning. The only snag is that this would have been an easy warning level snowstorm if temps were 10-15 degrees colder…which is a lot, I suppose lol.