The upcoming forecast is starting to give off winter ‘94 vibes. Brutally cold for week’s at a time. Feb ‘94 gets mentioned because we were supposed to get a snowstorm, but there was a sneaky warm layer that gave us several inches of pure sleet from start to finish.
Yea I noticed that on recent runs…you can basically follow the lobe of energy from the Baja low and that’s the driving force behind the potential changeover. WV loop is gonna blossom on Sunday once that piece gets near…just gotta see whether it’s too much of a good thing.
Side note: The potential blizzard next weekend shown on the 6z gfs looks pretty cool, though.
Regarding this storm…nowcasting will be fun…especially the water vapor loop once this system sparks in the Deep South.
I generally preferred this storm to be later to coincide with the next, more rock solid shot of cold, but also didn’t expect the Baja low to unravel like a slingshot towards Pittsburgh lol.
It’s a close shave, no question about it, but does seem like this is one of those systems that could actually trend south instead of north. That’s some stout cold with a reinforcement incoming (just needs to be more incoming lol).
I’m kinda thinking that too tbh. Maybe a subtle tick north. The difference between the models at this point seems like subtle differences in when the phasing with that unraveling Baja low occurs.
Pretty obvious given the low dews leading in that the main model convergence now is on a front end thump (6-10”?) with wildcards thereafter depending on low track, strength of cad, etc.
I didn’t…but after growing up in Silver Spring, I know this area is like a different climate. Actually, anything Germantown north can be the dividing line for snow/sleet…at least it used to be.