87storms

This place is candyland compared to Eastern. Trust me when I say being a newbie and acting like a know it all was like shooting baskets on a hoop with a yellow jacket nest.

Eastern shore is going to love this run

Complicated might be the new way we get snow now. I’m in.

Guys, I’m in Pi Planning today…stop distracting me by posting potential stemwinder nor’easters that have no mixing issues inland.

Lol yea mine isn’t sharp, but def stiff. Think a lunchtime stretch is incoming.

My lower back def feels that shoveling from yesterday lol. Different muscle groups used for that exercise.

I think we need to get out of this La Niña stuff. We’re either getting storms with too much warm air intrusion from 850 to 700 or fast moving NS systems that aren’t digging early enough (too much ridging out west?). Need a pattern that allows these components to play nicer together. Feels like it usually points back to downstream blocking. The main causes of that would make for an interesting research topic.

Missed the 0z runs, but before I crashed I noticed the wind direction at the lower levels is really cutting off moisture from the gulf and even Atlantic until the system cranks. Seems we’d be relying entirely off the coastal cranking early enough, which is the opposite of the last system that had southwest winds feeding us moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf.

As depicted, with the arctic air in place and the fact that we have a closed low, that has potential to be a blizzard for someone near the coast.

Yea me too…see you tomorrow at 12z.

It does seem like a Jan 2000 would make a decent analog to this setup.

Which is exactly what I think our area should be rooting for (the coastal seems a reach). I’d like to see the energy out west a little further north and the ns system as well.

There should be a 1000 emoji for this

Just finished shoveling. Kinda proud of my work tbh. What’s also cool is coming inside after starting at bright snow and everything is low lit.

Just shoveled one side of my car. Unpleasant, but doable. Helped that we didn’t have any fzra. But it’s still pretty thick.

Maybe wait until it’s more than a light westerly breeze away from being a fish storm.

Bruh

What about the preseason game against the Commanders?

Same. The dudes that work in my development worked all day yesterday (and probably underpaid for it). Now shoveling around my car is not something I’m looking forward to. Might wait until the sun breaks out before tackling that.

Bombogenesis, but I don’t trust it until the nam shows it. Jk

Yea, and I don’t know how I feel about it lol. Rule measured 5-5.5” here…followed by 8 hrs of sleet. Fun and interesting storm, but 2/3 of it was sleet (aka not snow).

You’re doing too much. If you can’t read thru my obvious humor (I said in a previous reply that I was joking) when I said, “nam is the new sheriff in town”, that’s a you problem, not a me problem. But while we’re on the topic…I don’t get paid to forecast, but there’s Mets on here who do and who clearly emphasize the fact that some models are better than others at certain things. In data science, it’s the study of a model’s bias vs variance. It’s well known that some of the nam’s primary skill is in identifying thermal issues and mesoscale banding (not to a pinpoint location, but that it might occur), both extremely important (especially to people who have to work in this stuff and not just enjoy it from the comfort of their homes) when trying to forecast warm air intrusions when temps are in the teens. There’s no gaslighting here, that’s an actual fact, something anyone can do a quick search on. Anyhow, this thread isn’t for this type of discussion, so I’m cutting it off here.

I'm 50/50. On the one hand, it's been generally cold this winter and we've got a historic (on some level) cold stretch coming up. On the other hand, it was cold af leading into this storm and the majority still ended up as pingers. Warm air intrusion has been a thing the last few years and this storm was no exception. Long story short...tbd.

I would say that getting thermals right is pretty important

Every model lost in some way. Canadian was the first I think to show that we could get screwed upstairs. Euro/Nam is typically the best combo…we just had hope because it was so damn cold leading in. Long story short, models have gotten significantly better overall and hoping they’re wrong is getting to be irrational.