87storms

There should be a 1000 emoji for this

Just finished shoveling. Kinda proud of my work tbh. What’s also cool is coming inside after starting at bright snow and everything is low lit.

Just shoveled one side of my car. Unpleasant, but doable. Helped that we didn’t have any fzra. But it’s still pretty thick.

Maybe wait until it’s more than a light westerly breeze away from being a fish storm.

Bruh

What about the preseason game against the Commanders?

Same. The dudes that work in my development worked all day yesterday (and probably underpaid for it). Now shoveling around my car is not something I’m looking forward to. Might wait until the sun breaks out before tackling that.

Bombogenesis, but I don’t trust it until the nam shows it. Jk

Yea, and I don’t know how I feel about it lol. Rule measured 5-5.5” here…followed by 8 hrs of sleet. Fun and interesting storm, but 2/3 of it was sleet (aka not snow).

You’re doing too much. If you can’t read thru my obvious humor (I said in a previous reply that I was joking) when I said, “nam is the new sheriff in town”, that’s a you problem, not a me problem. But while we’re on the topic…I don’t get paid to forecast, but there’s Mets on here who do and who clearly emphasize the fact that some models are better than others at certain things. In data science, it’s the study of a model’s bias vs variance. It’s well known that some of the nam’s primary skill is in identifying thermal issues and mesoscale banding (not to a pinpoint location, but that it might occur), both extremely important (especially to people who have to work in this stuff and not just enjoy it from the comfort of their homes) when trying to forecast warm air intrusions when temps are in the teens. There’s no gaslighting here, that’s an actual fact, something anyone can do a quick search on. Anyhow, this thread isn’t for this type of discussion, so I’m cutting it off here.

I'm 50/50. On the one hand, it's been generally cold this winter and we've got a historic (on some level) cold stretch coming up. On the other hand, it was cold af leading into this storm and the majority still ended up as pingers. Warm air intrusion has been a thing the last few years and this storm was no exception. Long story short...tbd.

I would say that getting thermals right is pretty important

Every model lost in some way. Canadian was the first I think to show that we could get screwed upstairs. Euro/Nam is typically the best combo…we just had hope because it was so damn cold leading in. Long story short, models have gotten significantly better overall and hoping they’re wrong is getting to be irrational.

It’s the thermal sheriff

I was checking the nam from yesterday and it looked like it was forecasting gaudy qpf amounts but maybe less than the euro. I didn’t check too closely though. I’m going to assume officially there was closer to 6” snow near downtown Frederick and a few inches of sleet. Seems like further south may have done better overall with qpf but still healthy regardless.

I’m obviously kidding. But off in qpf in what way? I unofficially measured 5” of high ratio snow in multiple places and it wasn’t really pouring sleet here…more like moderate for hours. I have no idea what the melted qpf is but it didn’t seem that far off. Maybe it was, idk.

The Nam is the new sheriff in town

I’m here bc of the 18z euro.

Seems like we got stung by a lack of blocking/la Nina combo. But I generally agree that if we’re gonna waste an inch or whatever of qpf, this is the most wintry way to do it.

Charge your phone and laptop time.

Ugly. This is the week to catch up on work and life lol

The whistle pig 6 yr is pretty good. I almost caved and got eh Taylor the other day but all the stores price gouge the allocated stuff now.

At this point, 52 sounds really nice lol. It’s just nasty out rn. I actually like the wintry part but roads are really gonna suck for a few days. Glad I stocked up

Very disruptive storm and interesting…but man…if this was all snow…

Often times we’d flip back to snow as the upper level low approaches, but this one looks like it’ll just end as sleet/fzra. Hopefully next storm we can get that primary/upper level low moving under our latitude.