Currently in a PI refinement session. I tried to start the convo off talking about the upcoming snowstorm. Worked for a couple mins…but yea, paychecks are important, too.
I’d like the TPV further west. Probably my biggest concern tbh. But also not convinced the bitterly cold temps/suppression will be realized. I still like my goal of 4-6” lol
The gfs isn’t exactly a flush hit up here. Not saying it won’t happen, but certainly my part of the subforum isn’t a lock yet. I need to see better consensus from the big dog models.
The upper level flow is still very much NS dominant. Your idea of the southern stream energy coming out in pieces makes more sense than one big storm imo and, frankly, is what the h5 map shows on the gfs. We’re up against atmospheric memory rn.
It’s challenging based off the actual outcomes of the past few years lol. With that said…I have honked at the potential of this pattern, but we know the routine by now. Euro runs this ship, period.
4 storms hit my area in Bethesda at the time. We had that Jan 30 suppression that nudged north, Feb 2, the mothership event on Feb 5-6 and the screamer/mauler on Feb 10. Pretty wild in hindsight.
Canadian is our boom scenario where the SW energy actually does eject and tap into the gulf...producing basically a hecs. Unfortunately, it's not the Euro.
I could absolutely picture the flagship storm in this pattern getting pushed out to next week...which is fine. We're pretty great at early to mid-February snowstorms.