87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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Steady and sticking to absolutely everything here.
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Wait, what’s going on outside?? Lol. That was unexpected.
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I actually almost always say that in my head when reading it
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Next week’s pattern is looking highly trackable. The models won’t know which shortwave will spark the gulf, but it seems like something is brewing.
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Fun looking setup so far with gulf moisture available and cold air incoming, not retreating.
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It’s cloudy almost every day here. I actually think the eastern shore and central Va are underrated. They get less of the stratus decks caused by the Great Lakes and mountains, and they seem to get more snow now lol. Current satellite loop really shows the difference between i95 east and west.
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It’s waffling from run to run. I’m more interested in what’s getting tee’d up for next weekend. Looks like maybe some stj action?
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Very intriguing run.
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I just like seeing an actual wave in the south. If it gets suppressed, so be it, but it’s at least something fruitful to track beyond the leftover scraps we’re getting from the northern tier.
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Lol
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Another round of wind has made an appearance here.
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Having the gulf open for business is music to my ears.
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That’s actually a pretty weak correlation with the relationship potentially caused by outliers. Not sure where you got the 62.5% from unless you were looking at a sample of data? I only say that because R^2 in that case is 6.25%. I think when looking at these indices, it’s easy to get caught in a chicken/egg loop unless there’s clearly pressure-level signals for snowier winters like with nao/ao, etc.
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Slightly different than Sunday's fish storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=72
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this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180
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You mean you don’t like it when it’s below freezing, windy, and cloudy with no snow?
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Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.
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There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.
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True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.
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Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.
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Eastern shore is basically a different climate than i81, so I could absolutely see how this ends up a Richmond/Norfolk to OC special.
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So somewhere between pretty damn good and awful?
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Yea we don’t really get the crazy surprise storms anymore. The models also do a better job at drying up northern stream systems as they cross the mountains. Those types of systems were a source of busts back in the day. One of the presentations at the AMS in New Orleans mentioned how there’s gradual improvements in modeling even up to day 10.
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Loved the Cap Center…my dad used to work the Caps and Bullets games amongst other events. Miss those arcade games at the concourse level as well. 18z incoming…
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We might need snow more than the Wizards need a 50-win season.
