87storms

Yea, low level cold air can take forever to scour out. The issue is upstairs. That hp is just racing east, so there’s not gonna be much resistance to the waa. I think an inch stat starter would be a win in this setup.

We are who we thought we were

I think 1-2" is reasonable here...I'm a mile west of rt 15 which, given how this area is, means I'm basically east of rt 15 lol. The top of Catoctin might be a winter wonderland, though. That area just absolutely dominates in these marginal events.

The overlook at Black Rock is one of the finer ones I've seen around here. It's a bit of a slog to go that extra distance from the base past Annapolis Rock, but kinda worth it, if time isn't a thing.

That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.

I missed it. Woke up around 8am, but did see the lightest of cartoppers…and mostly on the roof of cars lol.

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

Euro continues to steer the ship.

We're officially in the model war portion of the program. 0z will be the most important runs of the season. I'm expecting convergence soon.

I've made my yearly transition to wanting a snowstorm, so I'm in.

Frederick is overdue for a win in the snow department. I’m pretty sure Bethesda has gotten more snow since I moved here.

We're currently getting our 2x per week sunny weather in Frederick. I'll take it. Beautiful outside rn.

It seems like we need legitimate arctic air intrusions to get snow here now.

Same here…brief, but ‘twas snow.

Decided to bike in this nonsense and was treated to a light flurry while I was pumping air in my tires. This might be the year. Edit: Was supposed to go in Obs.

We went from a sunny forecast here today (which I figured would be wrong since Frederick is cloudy at least 60% of the time) to scattered flurries. I trust Tuesday's forecast like I trust DC sports.

lol at the sunny forecast

GFS vortmax is further north than we'd want based on "my lack of formal training" experience. Euro is further south, but still not completely ideal. That's been a trend for the last couple years...northern stream is either too far north or flatting the southern stream. At this point, I just want a storm that reminds me that we can in fact get a southern stream dominant wave that drops an inch of precip over the region.

I'd rather have the Euro on our side at this range.

Which means it will probably change again lol, but still a nice shift (not trend). We're due for an early December snow day that doesn't include scattered snow showers that take 12 hrs to accumulate a half inch.

Weather model evaluation seems similar to machine learning on just about any dataset. Want to reduce variance and have a more generalized prediction (it'll probably snow, but not sure how much)? Random forest classifiers can help. Want to reduce bias and get more precise with potential overfitting (don't worry about downsloping, it's gonna snow 9.8")? Gradient boosting. Want a mixed bag, but high cost and a potential black box (it's gonna snow somewhere between 1 and 15"), go with ensembles that have a variety of algorithms. Judging by the median (which I'm assuming is the wise thing to look at lol), looks like the AIFS ensembles are leaning towards snow tv, which is still a win in early December.

No rainbow here, but saw a pretty cool silverish/blue tint to the clouds leading into sunset. Got breezy as well.

Heard thunder (last one of the year?) from that quick line. Chilly stretch coming up...hoping the Catoctin cloud magnet is on Tgiving break, so we can get some sunshine here during that span.

Rippin' puddles here.

This would have been another easy 3-5” snow. Getting precip cored rn. Raw day.