87storms

We're officially in the model war portion of the program. 0z will be the most important runs of the season. I'm expecting convergence soon.

I've made my yearly transition to wanting a snowstorm, so I'm in.

Frederick is overdue for a win in the snow department. I’m pretty sure Bethesda has gotten more snow since I moved here.

We're currently getting our 2x per week sunny weather in Frederick. I'll take it. Beautiful outside rn.

It seems like we need legitimate arctic air intrusions to get snow here now.

Same here…brief, but ‘twas snow.

Decided to bike in this nonsense and was treated to a light flurry while I was pumping air in my tires. This might be the year. Edit: Was supposed to go in Obs.

We went from a sunny forecast here today (which I figured would be wrong since Frederick is cloudy at least 60% of the time) to scattered flurries. I trust Tuesday's forecast like I trust DC sports.

lol at the sunny forecast

GFS vortmax is further north than we'd want based on "my lack of formal training" experience. Euro is further south, but still not completely ideal. That's been a trend for the last couple years...northern stream is either too far north or flatting the southern stream. At this point, I just want a storm that reminds me that we can in fact get a southern stream dominant wave that drops an inch of precip over the region.

I'd rather have the Euro on our side at this range.

Which means it will probably change again lol, but still a nice shift (not trend). We're due for an early December snow day that doesn't include scattered snow showers that take 12 hrs to accumulate a half inch.

Weather model evaluation seems similar to machine learning on just about any dataset. Want to reduce variance and have a more generalized prediction (it'll probably snow, but not sure how much)? Random forest classifiers can help. Want to reduce bias and get more precise with potential overfitting (don't worry about downsloping, it's gonna snow 9.8")? Gradient boosting. Want a mixed bag, but high cost and a potential black box (it's gonna snow somewhere between 1 and 15"), go with ensembles that have a variety of algorithms. Judging by the median (which I'm assuming is the wise thing to look at lol), looks like the AIFS ensembles are leaning towards snow tv, which is still a win in early December.

No rainbow here, but saw a pretty cool silverish/blue tint to the clouds leading into sunset. Got breezy as well.

Heard thunder (last one of the year?) from that quick line. Chilly stretch coming up...hoping the Catoctin cloud magnet is on Tgiving break, so we can get some sunshine here during that span.

Rippin' puddles here.

This would have been another easy 3-5” snow. Getting precip cored rn. Raw day.

It’s been a miserable Fall for people who prefer warmer weather, that’s for sure. Seems like September got skipped this year and we went right into mid Fall. Latest gfs says December wants to continue that trend.

Today's weather is what I want for more than one day in a row. Looks like Wednesday is the last day of nice temps before the Nina cold/dry returns. Hoping the end of the week is at least sunny.

Just got through a cloud spoke here from the typical GL low, but it's gotten sunny again. The afternoon is looking prime: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12 OTOH, New York State is cloudy...because it usually is. They're definitely on the wrong side of the Great Lakes with the exception of LES which would probably get played out after a while.

We do December snow about as well as DC does sports.

There's drought conditions up and down the east coast right now. I can't even recall the last time there was a major east coast storm. There's been a lack of landfalling GOM/EC hurricanes as well...which makes me think it's all interconnected. We need that southern stream to wake up.

In the midst of a miracle comeback weather-wise with veiled sunshine in Frederick as opposed to the drearies. In other news, November is probably my least favorite month lol. It’s the no man’s land of weather. When is it gonna snow?

This was one of those easy snow day events that we need in January and February.

I want whatever Central VA is cooking: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12