87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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That’s the one that keeps me interested lol
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UMD math grad here…some of those early courses were straight up weed out classes. I think I spent 20 hrs a week in cmsc106 lol. Kinda wish I kept all my textbooks to check out from time to time. Number theory was cool.
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Didn’t have to take that in undergrad, but I did scrape by taking 3 semesters of physics. Those were not ones you want to fall behind on.
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That was me during what turned out to be yesterday’s rain storm.
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We’re in the psychobabbe portion of tracking. Is it gonna snow or not?
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I need more of today’s weather…the kind where there’s a healthy combo of sun and light winds.
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There’s a little stripe of vorticity along the m/d line that’s stayed pretty consistent on the models. Maybe that adds enough lift to get a coating here. That’s my bar. North shift is nice, but it’s gonna be finding some low dews. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2025120318&fh=42
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The days when models underestimated how often the mountains eat up our snow. Clippers were the source of many busts.
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Valid point. That would be our path to victory, I think. NC won’t Iike that, but this is a competitive sport and I only care about the dmv.
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Can’t get anything to go negative tilt when we need it to. Prob related to a lack of blocking which im assuming is at least partially due to an overactive northern stream. I need to do more research on indices…others here have way more knowledge on that.
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The fun part is knowing that it can still trend south. We need an active subtropical jet in the absolute worst kinda way. When was the last 6”+ snowstorm in Frederick? Maybe 2019? I was still in Bethesda and we got rocked with that one.
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I want to be invested, but that hp is a force. Are we relying on some lead frontrunning precip etc for this one? I feel like this has ots potential. I’m actually not even sure how precip is making it as far north as depicted given the setup.
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This one is for the southern crew. I’d be hyped if I was in Central Va.
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We need a hp to the north of us, not over top of us lol.
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I don't remember seeing that type of aggressive warm nose in the soundings for FDK. Looked like for the first few hours, temps were around freezing all the way up.
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Jinxes are bs, but superstition is legit. I bought my last jeep in Nov '13. If things don't trend better soon, I might get another one.
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This is the one, unless it’s the next one. Gonna need to rely on a Jan 30, 2010 situation. That system is way too far south rn.
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I thought snow tv at minimum for a couple hrs for northern md based on several soundings I looked at.
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Well that easy 1-2” became difficult. So basically if almost every model is showing rain, then that’s probably a sign that it’s not cold enough upstairs.
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This might be an easy 1-2” here. It’s cold out.
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Dew point is favorable, too
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Rt 15 special incoming
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Just got a workout in and it’s definitely anti-torch outside, unlike in March when we’d easily blast into the upper 40s/low 50s. I’m becoming more bullish. My bar is an inch on all elevated surfaces.
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Correction, Im actually 400’, but dt Frederick is 350’. There’s been a few storms where I can see snow on the top of gambrill. I have a feeling this might be one of them. Tomorrow morning should look cool, regardless.
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I’m in the Whittier area…right at the edge of where elevation increases (and falls lol). Only 7 miles to the top of the Watershed. It’s pretty wild how much of a difference a few hundred feet can make here. You’re in a good spot for this one.
