Jump to content

cbmclean

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,386

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. cbmclean
    Is that good bad or indifferent?
  2. cbmclean
    Not angels, but close enough.
  3. cbmclean
    Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging.
  4. cbmclean
    Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.
  5. cbmclean
    Excellent graphics. Thanks for the post. What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow? I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through
  6. cbmclean
    I am considering a project to amuse me and perhaps improve my coding and weather skills. I would really like to keep track of the various ensemble predictions for temperatures as they change day to day. Does anyone know where I can access numerical data for GEFS temperature outputs for say RDU from day 1 to Day 15? I would love to have all the ensemble members available so I could plot a mean and a spread.
  7. cbmclean
    Heard on the MA forum that 00Z EPS is disastrous past about Day 7. 06Z GEFS looked great, but someone said 12Z caved to the EPS. Still awaiting confirmation.
  8. cbmclean
    I think Mack moved to Ohio. He can enjoy all those cutters now. I was wondering what happened to Cold Rain. And also Warm Nose.
  9. cbmclean
    The Atlantic High Latitudes are looking better than years past that is true. But for the foreseeable future the guidance suggest that the Pacific will vary between "Meh" at best to "Ugly" at worst. In addition; the relative warmth in our normal source regions (northern Canada) means that there won't be much cold to work with in general.
  10. cbmclean
    I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.
  11. cbmclean
    Still holding at 33 F. If I could have had one degree, I could have had 6 inches.
  12. cbmclean
    Checking his garbage cans ain't happening?
  13. cbmclean
    So I'm in the jackpot zone 48 hours out. What could go wrong?
  14. cbmclean
    PSU (or anyone else interested in answering) I have been studying 500 HP trying to understand the correlation between them and surface temperatures. With a simple west ridge/east trough, it is very simple to see how the airflow brings cold air down from the norther latitudes and cools us down. But for something like the ridge bridge depicted above I have trouble visualizing how the gph anomalies lead to the conus getting flooded with cold air. Any wisdom to share?
  15. cbmclean
    Very informative, thanks.
  16. cbmclean
    Hey PSU. If you are bored and are just looking for stuff to do, I would be really interested in seeing a similar dissertation about crappy patterns. For example, my understanding is that the crap that started right before Christmas is a different sort of fail from the Pacific Doom Blob that we will soon be enjoying. I think in one of your posts today you mentioned it as a north Pacific problem as opposed to a SW Pacific problem.
  17. cbmclean
    Over the years you have been one of those leading the way for castigating the GFS for its fantasy snow storms and cold. I think most of us have just learned our lesson.
  18. cbmclean
    No.
  19. cbmclean
    @PSUHoffman I seem to remember you debating this with someone last year. Seems like their argument was that it was physically impossible to get significant -EPO and significant -NAO at the same time. You retorted that it was indeed possible and pointed to a specific time frame. Can you remember any instances of this? I think some may call it a "ridge bridge".
  20. cbmclean
    Just plain sigh...
  21. cbmclean
    Well, the wording of his statement "I take full responsibility for my actions ..." kind of suggests to me that he did something bad to someone else. I could mention the first thing that comes to mind, but it would be baseless speculation. Man, I am bummed I grew up with him.
  22. cbmclean
    I am seriously bummed out by this. I wonder what the heck happened.
  23. cbmclean
    Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?
  24. cbmclean
    Awfully quiet in here now.
  25. cbmclean
    I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.
×
×
  • Create New...