cbmclean

I think that that is completely reasonable, but even if it were to occur I think there is a chance that something more complex than simply a warmer base state may be involved. I mean, it's not as if the who NH is warm. Incredibly almost the entirety of Russia, from the Finish border to the Pacific is well below normal. SOMETHING seems to be keeping the cold air completely shifted to Eurasia, which to me is a different situation than there just not being any cold.

All humor aside, what is the mechanism of what is going on? I see a big gulf of Alaska vortex. Does that also flood our source regions with mild pacific air as well? Is that the cause of this monstrosity?

Where are you able to see that data?

An interesting an informative article about SSW events. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/

That's not even cold to boot Better than warm anomalies. Note also the extensive cold anomalies in Siberia, which is on top of their already frigid averages at this time of year. Residents of Verhoyansk might have to ditch the windbreaker and put on a heavy coat.

So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see.

I keep seeing tweets posted here from breathless stratosphere junkies. What is the actual status? Is it in process now? Is it imminent? is it all just a figment of their imaginations?

Is that unusual? Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7.

What is "wave 1"?

I have lurked here for several years. The SE is obviously my home forum but I come here because the analysis is superior and as far as the hemispheric pattern, many of the factors that affect us are the same. Anyway, I have read many of your previous posts about teaching and I have been wondering how remote learning was working for your students. I know this should be in the banter thread but since it came up here and there wasn't much else going on I didn't feel it was too much a sin to ask the question here.

I am most directly interested in cold in and of itself. I love snow but I have lived in North Carolina all of my life so I have had to learn to be satisfied with a sloppy 2 inches a year if I am lucky. So I love cold and dry almost as much as snow (I had a good Christmas). That being said I am interested in understanding if there are multiple different ways to succeed or fail with regards to cold anomalies in the eastern CONUS. For example, I know that there are at least two distinguishable Pacific doom patterns which suck for cold in the east. One is the Alaska vortex. Another is the massive Aleutians ridge. Are there multiple distinguishable "good" Pacific patterns as well, or are they all really variations on the theme of a +EPO ridge?

The Atlantic High Latitudes are looking better than years past that is true. But for the foreseeable future the guidance suggest that the Pacific will vary between "Meh" at best to "Ugly" at worst. In addition; the relative warmth in our normal source regions (northern Canada) means that there won't be much cold to work with in general.

Are you bitterly pointing the fact that the good look is perpetually 10+ days away? Or are you seriously pointing to this a potential source for optimism (or at least muted pessimism). Sorry but its hard to tell without voice inflection or body language.

You seem to have a passion for teaching. If you feel so inclined I would love to see one of your teaching posts about the Pacific patterns and their impact on the eastern CONUS. You touched on it somewhat last year in the Snow Climo thread but it was more in the context of the incredibly crappy pattern that was then upcoming. Are there any particular pattern stretches (good or bad) that it would be instructive for me to go back and look at the 500 MB anomalies on the NCEP tool?

If there is an EPO ridge, what is the mechanism for the warm air?

Tropical Tidbits has limited euro products. Does the Euro agree with the Alaska vortex?

The Atlantic may be mitigating the effect of the Pacific somewhat, which is better than nothing. But three straight years of crappy Pacific gets old.

I don't mind it being 10 days away...as long as tomorrow its 9 days away

The reason that we didn't get snow: it was the soap!

Thank you Mr. Wiggum. By the way, I am a big fan of your work. Your portrayal of George Washington in the school play was especially powerful.

Anyone bored on Christmas Eve and care to explain the mechanics of how this "look" leads to air flow from Asia to Canada. I do not know enough to see it. I understand the basic concepts of 500 MB anomalies and such, but I do not understand how various anomalies direct airflow from one region to another.

Cutters?

Thank you for this info.

Interesting, do any of those terms mean anything to you? I am only vaguely familiar with NWP. I was under the impression that it involves lots of non-linear partial differential equations.

I'm not sure about the statement that the long range was "inaccurate". The storm signal was there for like 10 days. The existence and approximate location were never in doubt. Yeah there was a time where it looked like DC was going to good snow, and that didn't happen but that was corrected. The fact that we knew about the storm at all from 10 days out is a miracle of modern science.