jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If the pattern changes to one with stronger offshore flow the waters will cool down from upwelling. I’m sure 100 feet down or less the waters are much colder and would up well to the surface with a pattern conducive to that. The pattern has supported a hot western Atlantic for some time due to the WAR on roids over the “winter” up to now.
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Total steam bath today with 75-77 dew points.
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Seeing a LOW of 101 is just…. wow.
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The waters to our south are all well above average, and constant southerly/onshore flow helps warm the waters up fast. Jones Beach water temp has been 77-79 degrees the past two days. That’s insane-the average highest water temp for the year is a month from now and 73-74. July is usually around 70.
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Up to 93.
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What a joke.
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Weak sauce seabreeze today. Numerous S Nassau/Suffolk stations still in the low 90s.
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Sea breeze front near Sunrise Highway, crawling north. Some stations near the front hit 90.
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As long as winds stay W or NW humidity shouldn’t be too big a deal but temps will be hotter on that wind direction so it probably all evens out. We wont have a problem hitting 90 today.
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Feels way better outside than it’s been. Enjoying it when I can.
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Keep watering!
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If any model did well RGEM probably won but I chalk that to a broken clock being right once. It was clearly a nowcast setup and what we needed didn’t happen for 90% of us. Cheers to those who did get deluged on the east end.
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And the 7-8 runs after that blasted us. Up to 21z I believe it was still giving 3-5” of rain almost island wide.
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Successful would’ve been something that could dent our drought, and for 90% of us east of the city we didn’t come close to that.
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90-95% of the island had under an inch. I still consider this overall a fail. Models generally had widespread much higher amounts.
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Keep watering!
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I was out in that area yesterday. Would never expect they’d be the area to get nailed on LI. Looks like ISP ended with 0.49”. I probably ended with something similar-just two moderate showers early and the period of moderate rain around 11pm.
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Said now many times-set expectations low to rock bottom on any interesting LI weather in the summer.
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And what a joke performance by the HRRR. Disaster by that model but others had widespread 1-3” here. That’ll be a total fail. Drought continues. Lawns are parched/burnt for many and most near the south shore/east end now.
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Raining moderately. It’ll rinse my car off, that’s about it. Maybe it adds up to 0.2” in the end?
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Whatever this stuff is looks like it’s all LI’s getting. Maybe east of the William Floyd gets clipped by these T-storms. And my luck-the broken part of it looks headed for my backyard.
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HRRR has us getting 3-5”. Might be totally wrong, like I said it’ll be a nowcast situation. If this falling apart line is all there is and we don’t see more convection firing, we’ll know which was right. So far I had two moderate showers that maybe brought .05”.
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I would just watch the radar and see what happens. Obviously if HRRR is wrong right now it’s likely wrong 12 hours from now.
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HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms.
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Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. There’s a shot here east of the city this time. But the storms probably wouldn’t be training over this area so we’d probably get 1-2” but it’s hugely welcome.
