jm1220

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

GFS looks solid, maybe bumped up amounts a little. Avoid the weenie Kuchera maps. There’ll be places where ratios are above 10-1 but it’s based on temps where the snow growth happen and saturation of the column not just surface.

Where you are the snow will stick right away and probably be powdery-although that doesn’t guarantee good ratios because you need good snow growth. There will likely be 1-2 good bands that get set up inland. The QPF IMBY might be higher but my snow will initially be paste and tougher to stack up. I’m still thinking the immediate south shore/east end might have issues getting the snow to accumulate for a while until the N wind drives the cold air down.

You'll have better ratios to make up for the lower QPF.

RAP looks really good too.

Hopefully we clear out so we drop as much as we can but yeah we’re on track.

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42.

There'll likely be some places under a lucky band that get 7-8". Impossible to say where that'll be. NW NJ/Hudson Valley probably has one of them in the good ratios and mid level lift. But generally a 4-6" type event. 3-4" in places that waste some in the beginning like perhaps twin forks/coastal NJ/South Shore.

Before our bonanza period 2000-2018, starving for this kind of moderate storm was the norm.

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

Gradually been trending colder.

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb.

Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always.

It'll be good to have some paste to start out so the snow doesn't all blow away during the week. It'll be a tundra next week.

Euro probably 4-7" areawide. East of the city has the most QPF but ratios might make the amounts areawide similar since east of the city starts as wet snow. Very nice run and beefed up.

If we see it all snow and we start accumulating early and not waste the beginning to slop/white rain, we should be good for 4-6” I think. Might be a situation though where the south shore struggles for a while until the cold air hammer really comes down on the N flow. The marginal degree or two setups are usually OK here but it hinges on that degree or two.

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record?

I think if we can get the low to head ENE from near Cape May and stay 20 miles or so SE of Montauk most of us will be fine. It’s the solutions that we’re planting the low near LBI or Fire Island that are a problem. Hopefully we’re getting a consensus close to the GFS.

Never. It's nice but I'll be giving it zero weight until other models jump on. We've seen it do total flips less than 24 hours before an event.

We're finally getting to the compromise. I think it's weighted toward the RGEM but that won't take much of a bump SE for most to be happy.

It trended better from 6z. I'm accepting at this phase that the first few hours here will be a nailbiter.

The RGEM budging SE a little to me is a good sign. But if the GFS is wrong by a degree or two I waste maybe half the initial precip to rain or nonaccumulating slop.

I think the question's really how long it takes to turn the flow northerly, cold air crashes in quickly after that. GFS has the low near/just E of Cape May which at that time could be dicey east of the city then tracks it ENE for the most part which would turn the winds N. IMBY the profile is very marginal at the beginning, maybe 34F snow until the wind backs around and it crashes into the 20s. It'll be pasty wet snow for a few hours anyway. I've found IMBY that marginal situations are usually okay since I have a couple hundred foot elevation but this time who knows. West of the city doesn't have these questions and is probably good for at least a high end advisory event.

I'll likely be right on the knife's edge here. When the RGEM refused to budge run after run it was a sign to me it wasn't totally wrong. I was hoping the Euro would be more right though, looks like that won't be the case. GFS still looks OK here but it's close at the start until the low kicks NE and we get the N flow. I still think as long as the low tracks SE of Montauk we should be okay outside the twin forks maybe. RGEM did tick SE a little but not by enough to matter here-it's still mainly a washout.

Euro looks pretty much the exact same to me. Still hundreds of miles east of the RGEM and lightest with the precip. Did beef up inland areas a little but across the board area wide it would be a maybe 2-4" type event. Hopefully we see a GFS/UKMET type outcome.