jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Brief shower here. Looks like the bulk of it is south of me so this should be about it.
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Jan 15-20 was my “get worried if nothing changes” timeframe this winter because Nino usually is best later, which is around when the pattern went back to Perma-Nina. So that was the time to get concerned. I hope next winter is better but looks honestly like more of the same unless the Pacific meaningfully changes or we get lucky with blocking like 20-21. Hopefully we have a very high ACE this summer.
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December during Nino is usually bad here. When big Arctic outbreaks started dumping into the Plains in Jan and we kept getting the SE ridge, that to me was the big red flag because then is when we’re supposed to flip more favorable. Instead the pattern went to typical Nina which is lousy for us late in winter.
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When the Pacific pattern/SST stays garbage, our outcome will be garbage. 72-73 was the last strong Nino with -PDO and that’s essentially what we got. We did a little better since we lucked out mid Feb. But overall torch among islands of brief cold, and well below normal snow.
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Last bits of snow are about gone in my backyard. Only dirt mall piles left. Until next non-winter!
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@MJO812 Pretty sure JetBlue has direct flights to Reno.
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Warmth usually overperforms this time of year. The trees aren’t leafed out which means less shade and evapotranspiration. Many times models don’t consider that.
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1/4/18 was an awesome event for LI but it was booking right along. Too bad there was nothing to slow it down. Our really epic events have some mechanism like blocking to slow the storm down. 14” from that one in Long Beach but it was largely over in 6 hours or so.
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BTW mixed rain and sleet here in Melville.
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The Bermuda High ridge keeps shifting north, which means the clockwise flow brings southerly winds and more humidity here vs hotter west winds and less humidity. The worst heat seems to shoot over us to the north when that happens, which has been the tendency relative to average-the worst heat keeps going north of us but we have the higher heat index with more humidity. FL-like is right.
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The low took a track due north then NW and the trough negatively tilted fast then closed off. East of the Van Wyck was on the wrong side of the initial heavy precip burst until the heights started crashing to the east and the cold enough air could make headway east onto LI. I took the train into the city that day and remember it turning from heavy rain to heavy snow just east of Jamaica and then blinding blizzard in Manhattan. In the afternoon when I got home the snow was starting in Nassau and starting to accumulate in Long Beach, and that night winds were fierce with the snow. Very impressive storm, 2 weeks before the big 3/13/10 monster.
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I’m more than ready for whatever warm weather March brings until the inevitable closed lows east of us develop and send endless back door fronts in. Really hope that can be avoided but some models are jumping on that train further into March and right on cue based on the past few springs. If snow is done bring on the warmth and outdoor activities. Useless cold is the worst. Was this winter better than last? Sure but that’s like stepping one or two stairs up from the absolute basement dungeon. 50% of snow normal which I have so far is nothing to celebrate along with three well above average temp months flooded in Pacific air. But as lousy as 50% of normal is, places north of here have 33% or less. Truly putrid.
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That luck's going to run out one day-summers. The South largely had its hottest summer on record last year. One summer that ridge will extend north and we'll get a westerly downslope major heat wave again. We've been lucky in a sense that the Bermuda High extends so much further north now that it drives southerly winds not westerly-increasing the humidity but not really the high temps. But that also guides hurricanes up the coast and not recurve out to sea.
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Central Park had 21". Long Beach had about 9-10" after fighting rain the first half of the event. Part 2 was wicked with the heavy plastering snow and wind. That period through the 3/2010 Noreaster that knocked hundreds of trees down with hurricane force winds was crazy. That was windier than Irene.
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My backyard still was mostly covered this AM where it's shaded much of the time and some patches elsewhere. In Long Beach on the south shore barely anything except some dirt piles in the parking lots. Goes to show how fast the high ratio snow on the south shore vanished with the higher sun and warmer temps. The cement that fell last Tue froze up and had some real staying power.
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I live 20 mins or so north on Rt 110, it’s comical sometimes how much warmer it is there than me.
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Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter.
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It was an ugly and boring winter outside the few days in mid Feb. Sad
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In some places in the shade we have a few inches left here. I’m sure it’ll be gone by Sat after the rain though.
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We also had a nice storm to start that January. I think it was 1/7 where I had about 8”. It may not have been that great south of the city.
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15.5” for the winter here. Definitely not good since average here is over 30” but a step above total disaster. I still give the winter a D/D-.
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I’m more concerned about the massive upper low starting up again south of Nova Scotia and drowning us in endless E winds during the spring. That’s something else this putrid Pacific state seems to be bringing us. As for snow usually there’s a threat or two in March here but inland favored. I’m fine with breaking out from here into the 60s and the trees blooming. Just no massive upper low east of here to back door us for days on end.
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The hurricanes may help with redistributing heat into the N Atlantic and promote blocking in the winter? I’d like to read more research into it but there’s definitely a correlation between the high Atlantic ACE hurricane seasons and better Nina winters here. The better Nina winters are known for blocking episodes that force the cutter tracks south. 1995, 2010 and 2020 were very busy Nina hurricane seasons with good winters after.
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As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year.
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Great. Bring it.
