jm1220

Flurries currently

Unfortunately it's a new normal to set up these -NAO patterns and backdoor-favoring troughs over the Maritimes in April.

I lived in Austin for about 2 years. A few times I saw quarter or so sized hail. I remember more the wind events-a couple of tornadoes went by close to me (one was at night and one was in the morning but with blinding heavy rain so I couldn't see it) and once there was 75-80mph wind with an incoming squall line. I missed some much bigger hail events by a few miles. They definitely happen but they're very localized. Since I moved back to Long Island this is the first actual hail I've seen.

Small hail in Huntington, pea size or so

Must be all the melt water from the Greenland ice causing that persistent cold pool there. And therefore assisting this crazy persistent NAO pattern.

The western parts of the city seemed to do better, a couple or few inches. Logan’s location right on the water did them in this time.

I was wrong about Boston and SNE in general with the storm last night. The prior airmass was too warm and it took way too long to transition to snow, and when it did so it took too long to stick. Precip also didn’t seem as heavy as models had it. I guess our luckier streak with April events lives on for now. Last night was decent in the really hilly parts of MA and CT.

Just one final knife or pathetic LOL this "winter" throws at us. Chilly raw 42 degree rain here. This garbage can be way past gone ASAP so the sun can come out and we warm up in a few days. This winter has been an all time worst.

Bodes well for SNE/I-90 corridor. They're going to be slammed for a few hour period. Frustrating what could've been if this went east from Cape May vs over NYC. Cold rain is the worst. Of course the last knife this "winter" has for us is watching a heavy I-90 special snow event right to Cape Cod with cold rain here. This is really an all-time worst.

Pretty much. They're at a good elevation and not near downtown Binghamton which is in a valley. I often wonder how much different BGM is than the actual city.

The low is moving right overhead and along I-80. Even if this was mid January this would be rain here. Unfortunately it’s perfect for a I-90 event. If it would’ve moved through DC to Cape May instead it would be a different story. And it’ll be a crazy few hours or so in SNE where the snow comes down, maybe 2”/hr rates. Boston won’t get as much as ORH or the hilly places inland, but should do well too (few inches or more I think-it’s overnight and will come down heavy).

We had 6-8” right down to the coast in April 2018 (overnight) and almost midday in April 2003. This is coming at night mostly. If it comes in heavy enough there won’t be a problem getting to a few inches at least.

Just can’t be a winter without an I-90 special. Crazy that it’s mid April but Boston looks to finally get a significant snow event.

Perfect timing for the trough and highs to start building in the Maritimes, and days of raw easterly winds and low clouds. Just perfect.

Rain/snow mix here.

The Coronablizzard?

That's why +AO, crazy progressive patterns are the worst. They cause warm cutters but also late developing/suppressed storms like this and the one that recently hit NC/VA and out to sea. When storms do form to our south the fast jet shoves them out to sea. Phasing happens too late or not at all. It all just comes together to shaft our area time after time. Needless to say some small tweaks could've caused a monster for our area. Instead we have some light rain and some kinda mangled snowflakes when you look at the streetlight.

Rain/snow mix in Huntington. More snow when the precip comes down heavier.

And models are typically underdone this time of year when we have torchy patterns. In reality many places not cooled down by the sea breeze would make it to 70.

I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day.

If this was 50mi NW, it wouldn’t be as much of an issue. The issue is that it seems like light-mod precip which wouldn’t provide the dynamics needed to cool the column. Could that happen? Maybe, I’d lean towards not given the atrocious overall pattern.

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out.

It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO.

That would just be the perfect kick to the teeth.

Maybe only 168hrs to go for some passing white rain!!