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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    And for me that was a very close shave but I just missed out on the really heavy snow. The eastern half of Long Island had up to 18" as the coastal storm blossomed. It's always a close shave here one way or the other. Nemo in Feb 2013 had over 30" in central Long Island, Juno in 2015 had over 2 feet, etc. It just never quite made it to NYC. But there are others where it does like Dec 2003, and the flukes like 12/30/00 and 2/25/10 which unfortunately for you guys cut due north.
  2. jm1220
    Absolutely-there'll be a ton of water being lifted on that 850mb jet on Monday. No doubt there will be some insane snow rates when the front end comes through. And it won't be booking either due to the fairly slow nature of the low. It'll essentially be a mini atmospheric river.
  3. jm1220
    Yes and the fast Pacific pattern may be helping us for a change here. If this had time to sit around and dig/deepen it really would've been a snow event inland and mostly rain near the coast.
  4. jm1220
    Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston like Juno in 1/2015.
  5. jm1220
    I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001.
  6. jm1220
    You'll do very well but I would expect 12-18" maybe not 24"+. I think those totals would be closer to the coast (not on the coast though, just inland in the better ratios).
  7. jm1220
    It's what was expected and again probably not done trending. The max snow in a miller B doesn't happen in Allentown unfortunately for them, but they'll still do very well.
  8. jm1220
    I missed both Juno in Jan 2015 and Jonas in Jan 2016 when I was living in Austin, TX. Yes I definitely miss the severe weather down there. We don't hold a candle to what I saw in Austin.
  9. jm1220
    Which I can't really understand as it was a Miller A. This won't be nearly as good as that was SW of Philly. Miller B's never are.
  10. jm1220
    Yep. I'm legit getting pumped now. I don't expect 20+ but it'll be a very sizeable event for the vast majority of us.
  11. jm1220
    Models are really keying in on the insane front end and lift on the easterly jet. It'll have tons of moisture with it. 90% of what falls is Mon morning to evening on that batch. It holds the warm air back so if that happens the changeover would be when the dryslot comes in.
  12. jm1220
    GFS v16 through 72. Has snow showers for most on Tue that would add maybe an additional 1-3" to what we get on Mon.
  13. jm1220
    If the trend tonight continues I would think totals across the board would be upped.
  14. jm1220
    GFS v16 looks about the same so far through 54, a bit less on the snow totals generally which was expected obviously but still major for most.
  15. jm1220
    Welcome! This is definitely a better area for snow generally than around DC and you live in a good location on LI as well for snow.
  16. jm1220
    Yup, that is about as perfect an outcome as could possibly happen in my backyard. Good for you guys too since the moderate to heavy snow lingers as the coastal low develops on the easterly flow. RGEM would be the best case obviously but I have to think it keeps trending east with the heaviest snow. Miller B redevelopments very rarely bury eastern PA and not places nearer to the coast, actually I can't think of any that have done that. I'd say this is a very solid 8-12" for all you guys, maybe less for people like 2001kx in Clearfield with 12"+ most likely near I-81 especially around Harrisburg.
  17. jm1220
    Not sure if this will be the same with the crazy deform band. This seems to be much more based on the initial warm air advection snow then the low occludes/matures which would stop the consistent heavy snow banding. But maybe, who knows.
  18. jm1220
    That one was something alright. I used to live 25 miles SE of NYC and left for Manhattan that day in a driving rain and then it flipped completely to snow midway through Queens. Manhattan was a whiteout. When I came back I followed the R/S line as it pivoted east and got home literally as it changed to snow. I ended up with 10" or so and Central Park 22". Winds were insane too, well over 60mph. It was northern stream driven but had a good tropical moisture feed as well.
  19. jm1220
    Billy Joel - Allentown (Official Video) - YouTube
  20. jm1220
    Not sure how many follow the ICON or how good it is but it looked really tucked with rain at some point past NYC.
  21. jm1220
  22. jm1220
    RGEM probably isn't done correcting. Most models at least give them 5-6" or so on the front end burst when it reaches them. The easterly flow and maturing low is a pitfall for them this time though. Miller B's don't normally max out on this area (at least west of Suffolk County). Would be sad and somewhat hilarious if NYC catches up to them in seasonal snow. They have 23" now and NYC has 10.6.
  23. jm1220
    I know the NAM's the NAM but that 700mb map is absolutely classic to wreck 90-95% of us-tremendous lift and tons of moisture on that easterly jet. And it isn't moving all that fast like these front end bursts often do such as 12/17's.
  24. jm1220
    And it's obviously way overdone with that heavy snow area in E PA. It'll be a great place to be but there won't be 47" in Allentown. It's typical in miller Bs that the development is a little delayed in the end and more progressive. Usually that burns NYC and benefits Boston but this time it's exactly what we need.
  25. jm1220
    I might run out of shoes after I have to eat them all.
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