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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Late May cool here, over the top heat for Canada. Easy to call the last 5 years.
  2. jm1220
    Further east models usually verify in these coastal storm setups. This would be a Boston 24” storm and most of us 10-12”.
  3. jm1220
    Dry air eating the rain up as it heads east-very much like our winter disasters, but models seem to be keying in on heavy rain in the morning as the coastal low takes over.
  4. jm1220
    Confluence/dry air from the east trying to hold it off although this time of course in late May it’ll lose.
  5. jm1220
    4 months too late. Congrats to the 2500ft+ mountain tippy tops in VT/NH.
  6. jm1220
    If we could’ve gotten any of the colder periods this winter to match with decent moisture it would’ve been a 40-50” snow winter in NYC. Instead we had the roaring Pacific destructively interfere potential setups to death over and over, favor more garbage SWFEs and keep other storms suppressed that could form. I’m not as concerned about the rising average temps (although that’s of course hampering our making any marginal temp setup work) as getting the Pacific to slow down and allow amplified setups in a good location for B/M tracks. We can get absolutely blitzed by a storm or two and end up well above average like in 15-16 despite near record warmth overall. Feb 2016 was also an underrated snowy month around NYC and east.
  7. jm1220
    Going to TX for Memorial Day weekend. Will be quite a shock to the system going from 50s in a nor’easter to possible mid 90s.
  8. jm1220
    Yep actually hasn’t been too bad. But we’re never out of the woods here for those until June.
  9. jm1220
    Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!
  10. jm1220
    Whaaaa? Never!
  11. jm1220
    South Jersey Alley lighting up.
  12. jm1220
    Oh you know it will. Once the cutoffs over the NE pattern sets up…
  13. jm1220
    Maybe if this rampaging Pacific Jet is a permanent thing now the West would be wet and Plains would start to dry out. But who knows.
  14. jm1220
    Once the cutoff lows start hanging around the NE we all know what happens.
  15. jm1220
    The map is effective as of Tue 8am but still should be a good improvement.
  16. jm1220
    When I lived there (Austin) were definitely a couple impressive storms and a few tornado warnings. This time of year in May is their active season often with a lot of rain, the truly intense heat didn't get underway until July the two summers I was there (which were true hell). I lived there in May 2015 when there was over 20" of rain just that month and heavy rain almost every day. Catastrophic flooding in some places near me. But then in June it dried up and essentially no rain again until Sept 2015, and Oct 2015 was another deluge month.
  17. jm1220
    WTF... Austin, TX's high for tomorrow is expected to hit 108. That's insanely early to be reaching that kind of heat and is actually not far from all time heat records there. The average high there this time of year is around 85. And it's expected to be 100+ for the next 5-6 days. This is more typical for mid-August. Must be feedback from the drought conditions over the Rio Grande Valley and SW flow/ridging.
  18. jm1220
    Overdone again like the last storm generally when some models had 4”+. Was pretty obvious what the outcome would be early this AM with the split-screw setting up. Hopefully the last places with drought get a good benefit. SE NJ still needs a soaker.
  19. jm1220
    “Backlash” rain coming through. Light to moderate shower, maybe it’ll get me to 0.6”.
  20. jm1220
    E Suffolk getting crushed. Someone out on the twin forks should get 3-4”.
  21. jm1220
    Yep and plenty of snow when the pattern supports storms into SoCal.
  22. jm1220
    Looks like eastern 2/3 of Suffolk about to get slammed. Split-screw west of there.
  23. jm1220
    We’ll see, hopefully it’s right. Could be a brief heavy rain batch here while eastern Suffolk gets drenched with the stuff off the NJ coast.
  24. jm1220
    We’ll see what this heavy rain area over coastal NJ does but I’m doubting anything from the city east that causes flooding unless something trains and that might be over eastern Suffolk. Wouldn’t be surprised if I end up under 0.5”.
  25. jm1220
    Not seeing it. The steady heavy rain is well NW and maybe the stuff developing over coastal NJ clips eastern LI. Many of us on LI probably get the shaft zone in between.
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