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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    No. Unless you mean someplace else in the state?
  2. jm1220
    Manhattan/Bronx about to get smoked over the next 1-2 hours with this crawling band.
  3. jm1220
    Yep, my wind switched to S and Farmingdale up to 70 now.
  4. jm1220
    If you're in Oceanside the warm front went north past you and therefore the heavy steady rain is NW of you. The lines of rain will come through tonight but won't be as steady. That being said radar is estimating over 3" in the northern half of Nassau County. The rain I've had so far has been very heavy but looks like another small dry slot coming in.
  5. jm1220
    The warm front's going to pass north of us. Plenty of heavy rain to come but the heaviest will definitely be west/north of us near where the front gets stuck.
  6. jm1220
    First real downpours here.
  7. jm1220
    Euro actually got slightly wetter for NYC proper and LI. All systems go regardless for a ton of rain north of the city.
  8. jm1220
    Yup. Quite the model war at the end.
  9. jm1220
    It’s really about the rain over S PA now-how intact it is when it makes it to our region and whether it heads more ENE or NE. If more NE then the heaviest rain stays over CT and Hudson Valley. If it’s more easterly and the warm front can’t push as far, we all get drenched.
  10. jm1220
    RAP 16z was quite wet for everybody again. It’ll really be a nowcast situation I think for NYC/LI/I-78 area.
  11. jm1220
    UKMET not backing down whatsoever at 12z. 4-6" more areawide.
  12. jm1220
    Not totally on its own. The RAP 15z has 4"+ rain areawide. I guess we';ll see later what kind of rain builds SE after this overrunning portion clearly went to the far northern part of the region.
  13. jm1220
    Well …. RGEM still has a ton of rain, 4-6” some spots more for I-95, NYC/LI and less NW. It’s either in for a huge coup or slamming flat on its face.
  14. jm1220
    Yes. The storm amplified more at the end, and as always the ridge seemed to get stronger and drive everything north. A few days ago actually may have been more accurate in that models were trending north of NYC for the heaviest rain, but then we had the head fake back south for a day.
  15. jm1220
    Yup. Yesterday at this time it looked like a consensus was bringing the heaviest rain over NYC/metro area.
  16. jm1220
    Still a chance the heavy rain makes it a little further south and gets the northern part of NYC/our area especially with 4-6” rain. The Nam 3K would certainly do it. We’ll have to see what happens overnight. But yes CT and Hudson Valley look to get slammed here.
  17. jm1220
    Oh it’ll be a big deal somewhere. But the trend is for it to be N of NYC. 1-3” rain there is no big deal. Henri was 8” in Central Park. I’ll gladly take a pass on this one. Not in any way saying it’ll be a bust. The Hudson Valley, Catskills etc will get slammed for sure.
  18. jm1220
    RGEM is still quite nasty for just about everyone with 3-6" of rain everywhere. UKMET stayed sold on big rain everywhere. Even the 3k NAM has more rain tot he south than the 12k. Can't sleep on this just yet for the coastal areas.
  19. jm1220
    The "no big deal near NYC" models lift/arc that batch of rain to the north soon and dryslot the immediate metro. We'll see how it evolves. There are already flash flood warnings near Philly.
  20. jm1220
    GFS way north. East of NYC in areas get 1" or less.
  21. jm1220
    Awesome. Keep it going north.
  22. jm1220
    We have to see where the warm front sets up. Models could tick back south with it. I'd say the best shot of anything excessive now though is N/W of the city.
  23. jm1220
    It’ll be north of where the warm front sets up. There’ll be heavy rain in spots south of it along with possible severe but north of the warm front is where that heavy steady rain will be. 12z models all trended that front north. It’s also probably helpful for severe that the worst of the storm here will be at night.
  24. jm1220
    12z Euro back to pretty far north. For NYC, LI and south of I-78 it's 1-2" pretty much. Big amounts over 5" are in NE PA, parts of N NJ and I-84 corridor. The trough amplifying and stronger ridge as usual seem to be bumping it north. Keep the trend going!!
  25. jm1220
    Geez. I-78 would become the I-78 Rapids on that map.
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