jm1220

The Nino only works if the W PAC cools down. That seems like the issue with the 18-19 winter that could never act like a Nino because it kept the huge warm anomaly near Australia. This Nina is really acting up because of that warm pool. We might really need a mod to strong Nino to get it to couple if this warm Australia water is a semi permanent feature.

As others have said the southern S/W has to slow down and amp so the snow can reach far enough north. I wouldn't buy anything outside of 72hrs this winter so I guess that's a plus that it won't just snow in Richmond and the Delmarva, but the trend this "winter" so far has been very progressive, so that's a reason to think it won't happen. I guess keep an eye out but odds are against it. Latest NAM shows the problem-stays too positively tilted/progressive so whatever does form is shunted straight out to sea. That would be congrats Norfolk even. Would be fitting for this season.

Meanwhile Seattle had another decent snow event today. Record snow in the Sierras. Hopefully somehow this Nina can dissipate and we can get a strong Nino next winter to knock the Pacific into a new pattern without the insane PAC jet and -PNA. Totally sick of it.

Can we take about 1000 B-52 bombers and dump blocks of ice on it? Only somewhat kidding. Crazy how this anomaly is ruining our winter up here.

Many of us had above to well above average snow last winter. I agree that this Nina background state we have is lousy in general here but eventually it will change again and there will be more chances. We have boom or bust cycles in the winter and have had those as long as we have historic records. Much of the 70s-90s were horrible for snow here. We’ve been incredibly spoiled and wouldn’t surprise me at all if we enter soon a long stretch where we get smacked by the reality of where we live. It’s inevitable anyway. If you want constant stretches with heavy snow you have to live in the snow belts or favored places like the Adirondacks or northern ME.

Coating in Long Beach when I woke up. Might have been more, was melting pretty fast. Gone now.

Had a coating here in Long Beach which is gone now. Anything's good today anyway. Merry Christmas Eve!

The -PNA in record territory is bringing the storminess further south.

I have to agree. The worst for me are the teases and heavy rain to cold to more rain.

Parts of the CA Sierra have 300"+ of snow printed out on the last GFS throughout its run. That's just insane. Just an onslaught there. Good for them but it'll be hard to see us doing very well with that continuing and the trough digging there. We want the West warm and dry.

Not the winter for those.

A pattern like this won’t do it. Gradients like this mean Boston can rack up big totals like crazy while we 33 rain (maybe won’t be like that specifically but it will be like that somewhere). That’s why for our sake hopefully the PNA can be at least toward neutral.

I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea.

Well, one bit of good news is all the snow/rain CA is forecast to keep getting. The 384hr GFS at 12z shows something like 20 total feet of snow in the Sierras and 10+ inches of rain everywhere else there. Awesome for them-then let the ridge build, warm sun come out and we get our turn.

Some of those same areas under the moderate risk had up to 12” snow less than a week ago. Crazy is right.

In this pattern if it pans out we’ll hopefully get clipper type systems to track underneath us and redevelop. Essentially the definition of Miller B. Nina seasons like these aren’t known for Miller A systems.

Yep just like the PNA which seems to run in similar cycles. The 60s had much of that time with -NAO -PNA.

We have a chance at something decent if the Aleutian ridge can really pop. If it stays too South based the gradient won’t establish far enough south for us and the SE ridge will dominate.

Heavy rain in Long Beach. Decently gusty winds but nothing crazy.

Typical of Nina winters. The upper Midwest is usually favored for big winters then along with the Northwest.

Sheet of ice this morning on most surfaces. Temp 29.

Light snow continuing here. Also a light slushy coating on cars and grass. Nice to see.

Light snow in Huntington Station. Melting on contact.

Nada to zilch inches. Possible amounts up to zippo.

It’s that we have a great run for a few weeks like in Feb or we get shut out these days. Patterns seem to get stuck in place for longer and hit the same areas. It’s why we have few normal seasons anymore-either way above or below normal. There’s some hope towards the end of the month if the west coast ridge can rebuild. But I’d like to see something good happen in December to think we’ll end up with a snowy winter. Statistically a good December is much better than a lousy one for the winter to end up snowier than normal especially in a Nina which are usually front loaded.