Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,159

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago. It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.
  2. jm1220
    The double barrel may or may not be accurate here. It may be a nowcast situation with that. But of course we’d want as little of that as possible so the low can consolidate west.
  3. jm1220
    Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing.
  4. jm1220
    First pixie dust flakes here in Huntington Station. Fun times ahead!!
  5. jm1220
    Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always.
  6. jm1220
    If home for you is Long Island I’d say yes.
  7. jm1220
    I think for at least Nassau and Suffolk they’ll be up soon or at least Upton’s next update. And amounts probably going up!
  8. jm1220
    Wow at the Euro. Continues to tick slightly better evolution aloft. Looks very close to the Nam last night (not the probably overdone 6z). That would suggest 18” amounts are possible even in Nassau County and 12” to Manhattan.
  9. jm1220
    RAP 9z. No I'm not posting the inflated Kuchera map. You can find that yourselves.
  10. jm1220
    RAP at 9z which goes out to 51 hours was nuts as well, similar to the NAM but 30 miles east with the heavy snow. For what that's worth-probably not much since it's a short range model. Hi-res RGEM got a little weaker/further east from last run. Models may still be having issues with the possible double barreled low and working with convection (doesn't mean it isn't real or hallucination).
  11. jm1220
    Maybe. Some time still for minor trends but the NAM is so ridiculously more developed with the 500mb low and how far west it pushes everything that it doesn't seem feasible. I wouldn't trust it until other models get on board. I could see the Euro doing another 25 mile shift or something but not to that.
  12. jm1220
    6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds.
  13. jm1220
    That NAM is nice to look at but it's known to do these wacky things. RGEM actually looks a little weaker/SE with the precip at 6z but looks impressive aloft. That NAM run is an absolute thing of beauty though, good lord.
  14. jm1220
    NYC area/SW CT will do just fine with this. For 3-4 days it's been on the wall that this would be an eastern New England focused storm. A foot maybe in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. And there are often surprises on the western QPF gradient.
  15. jm1220
    30" will definitely happen somewhere, maybe a small swath from central/eastern Suffolk into CT and MA. I still think the best of the event will be around the Boston area down through eastern CT/central and east Suffolk but it will be very impressive to just over the Hudson. The one NAM run can't be taken lock stock and barrel when Euro essentially is an 18z carbon copy. Actually the model that may support the furthest west outcome in terms of banding may be the GFS tonight.
  16. jm1220
    There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent.
  17. jm1220
    I don't have access to 18z free maps but comparing to 12z the Euro definitely looked a little better. Nice more compact closed low that we could still use closing off a couple hours earlier but two closed contours E of Montauk. 700mb also looks better to me, less sloppy.
  18. jm1220
    Yeah, seeing posts saying it ticked west. Keep that coming por favor. I don't have access to free maps, hopefully the upper air looks better too.
  19. jm1220
    Who knows what'll happen. I'm sure there will be some kind of surprise with this. Often the west edge of the heavy QPF has a heavy deformation band. If I get 12-15" I'll be beyond happy.
  20. jm1220
    I would be too if I was you (I'm looking forward to it also but my odds are still a little less than yours IMO). You have a really good chance at seeing 20".
  21. jm1220
    I'd be pretty stunned if there aren't 20"+ amounts out there. Prime area is probably Rt 112 to near Riverhead.
  22. jm1220
    GFS also should have shown considerably more than it did given how it has 2 closed 500mb low contours SE of Long Island. I think that would be a foot easy from NYC east. I think the whole Island should be good for 12+. NYC is on the bubble, I'd say 8-12" there-8" Bronx 12" Rockaway. Still need another west push.
  23. jm1220
    A bit?
  24. jm1220
    Way out of its range but entertaining at least.
  25. jm1220
    Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it.
×
×
  • Create New...