jm1220

The airmass was lousy out ahead of this and if anything is even lousier than expected. Where I am was out of it as long as it was clear the strong easterly flow was happening but a better prior airmass could've saved a decent event for more and maybe even had a couple hour burst of snow here before rain. Maybe downslope and the warm easterly flow are hurting areas E of the Hudson.

Umm, what? Today's storm is up the coast. We just got skunked with an awful previous airmass. 12/26/10, 12/6/03, 12/5/02, 12/19/09, 12/25/02, 12/30/00, 12/16/20 etc etc etc? What a joke.

Pretty much a complete fail for this winter storm in central PA-precip is breaking up/ending sooner than expected, less snow when there was heavy precipitation etc. But it could be totally different for places in this sub forum. As I said in an earlier post Central PA is one of the worst most frustrating places for winter weather now where it’s almost a given that winter storms will fail in some way. Soundings are always best to look at vs clown maps. The models with the heavier snow had more dynamic cooling that held back any mid level warming. Southerly 700-850mb winds are never ideal.

Keep in mind some of what looks heavy S of NYC is bright banding which are what would've been our snowflakes melting in our delightful 41 degree maritime gunk. The liquid forming around the snowflakes artificially makes the radar think it's heavy precip. The radar is orange over my house and I'd say it's barely moderate rain. A few thousand feet up though at 850-900mb it's still cold enough for snow.

I'd care a lot more about the upper air setup, ensembles and the storm signal at this stage. Tracks over the BM, more minute details like when/if any capture happens we won't know for several days. Even 72hrs out it can be very fickle. But this has the hallmark of something that can work out very very well for us if it comes together.

Good point, gusts on the shore may reach 45mph. Wind advisory out for E Suffolk but may be shifted west. There’s a strong high north of us which will provide a solid pressure gradient.

Not sure if or how it’ll translate east but this looks pretty underwhelming so far in central PA. Looking at State College webcams there’s a thick coating of probably sleet from earlier today and it’s been 32 degree cold rain for the last few hours (maybe some is accreting but not much). Colder models had them getting 7-9” even using Kuchera and the official forecast was 4-6”, doubtful that happens. Back edge is also steadily pushing east and dynamics won’t work to flip it to snow very well if precip gets spotty.

I have no clue what’ll happen with this storm and hopefully it’s a good outcome but it won’t be snowing east of a low like that. Maybe there would be a lot of front end snow beforehand but we want the low to be tracking over the ocean. The signal for there to be a big storm and supporting upper air pattern is what we care about now.

And the same exact neighborhoods were hit in March of this year.

Wow at the N Catskills. They’ll probably get smoked on that easterly flow upslope. I definitely believe there could be 20” amounts there. Unfortunately much of the Hudson Valley probably goes to rain/sleet quickly and gets shadowed to some extent.

I would bet big that sleet will mix in sooner than the GFS has especially I-84 and south and that ratios will be lower than 10-1 so I would use the Kuchera map if anything. Models last night were showing a warm push at 750mb or so which makes sense since winds are southerly at that level. NAM is almost always closer to correct than the GFS at finding the warm layer. But there’ll definitely be areas with some elevation (over 1000’) that get crushed with this. The NAM getting colder is a good sign.

You can just about mail in a cold winter forecast for the PAC NW and N Plains these days. And as far as the forecast goes that doesn’t look to be changing.

RGEM is better but becoming clear you need to be well NW, probably NW of I-84 and with some elevation to see a good event from this. The strong southerly flow at mid levels and easterly flow at the surface-not a good combo.

The flow at 700 and 850 is from the south so not a surprise. There might be a nasty area of icing where temps aloft get above freezing but cold air lingers at the surface. NAM might be a little too warm at mid levels but it’ll tend to be closer to the truth than other models without the warm layer aloft.

N Catskills too. Would be great to be at Hunter Mountain for this.

Not so much a concern for this subforum but there could be some nasty icing in central PA down into VA if the mid level cold is scoured early and surface cold can hang on with the heavy onset of precip. There's a pretty strong high over Quebec that will be leaving but enough to have surface CAD in time for the precip.

Maybe it's the 84hr NAM doing 84hr NAM things. But the way wrapped up primary low is bringing mid level warm air with it unless the coastal low can take over early. The 700/850 lows around the coastal aren't developing until very late which could help lock cold air in. In that sense this really will be more like a SWFE where you want the front end thump.

If you're inland sure, there would be plenty of snow on the GFS 12z. But the moisture is coming in on strong ENE flow still. This is the panel at hr93. That would torch anyone near the coast regardless of what's going on at 850mb. Temps during this panel are in the 40s in NYC. For those not well inland, we need the transfer to happen sooner and the low to track ENE sooner so the wind can change direction.

Any time we have a strong E or ENE flow this time of the year, or pretty much any time of the year the coast will have problems. Water is still probably in the upper 40s. As others are saying this late week storm won’t be a big deal for anyone near the city and coast as long as the surface low tracks over Delaware Bay. Catskills/Poconos and well north in the Hudson Valley/Berkshires will do way better. Hopefully the rest of us get a break and the low can transfer sooner/further south under the block.

Nice maybe half inch on the ground here. Looks very wintery with the snow stuck on trees.

Light all snow, colder surfaces like car tops/grass are getting slushy. I'm on the board!

Light rain/mangled flakes/sleet mix.

If we could get some consistent heavier precip it would bring down cold air and switch to snow. Alas...

Some mangled flakes mixing in Woodbury.

Colder rain for us. Yippee