jm1220

Chances of Central Park measuring something? 10%?

Highly doubt it. Snowing in some places but temp is still 36-37 degrees. Colder spots in NYC do seem to be all snow now. Here in LI jackpot land it’s rain with a few flakes mixed in. If there is some slush for a bit in Central Park odds are it won’t even be measured.

Light rain here with some mangled flakes mixed in.

Looks like a nice event for you guys! State College looks like a snow globe on the webcams. CC on radar looks like the mix will stay west of the Allegheny Ridge until it’s over.

FWIW probably a positive bust in Central PA. State College at 28 and heavy snow. CC looks like the mix will hold off until the dry slot arrives.

Even if somehow it’s right (it won’t be), temps are already near 40 and dew points are going up on the easterly flow so we can’t wetbulb to near freezing. Any snow would be white rain that wouldn’t accumulate. I’d say 90% chance it just starts as rain.

Maybe we’ll even get some hail. Hey, it’s frozen precip we ain’t getting any other way.

I happen to agree. The 30” is skewed by the big winters we had in the past 10 years and will likely reverse somewhat in the next 10 years. As we see here what can be given easily gets taken away. This will be the 4th of the last 5 winters that will very likely be well below “average” at Central Park. The 5th was 20-21 where we all really lucked out.

I average I’d say 33-34” per year. NorthShoreWX in Smithtown is at 38”/winter over the last 25 years so maybe I average a little more being just west of him. ISP averages right around 32”. Central Park with the new averages is right about 30”. We shouldn’t expect blockbusters but there should definitely be a few decent events per winter.

This is up there with the worst, 97-98 would be the one where I don’t remember some kind of snow event by now. Even 19-20 and 01-02 had some kind of minor event by late Jan. If things don’t really turn around in Feb this will certainly be one of the all time worst.

After the Christmas arctic front came through it was comical how much salt was on the roads for the flash freeze that never happened because we had 3 hours after the precip ended until we went below freezing.

0z HRRR says you basically have to be in the Catskills to see any appreciable snow. Could be quite a soaker for most of us though, models are showing 2"+ in some cases.

This is kind of a jackpot zone-the north shore from Nassau through much of Suffolk is about the same. Marginal situations usually work out here for an extra inch or two. ISP averages about 32” I think. The south shore and southern NYC are probably mid 20s.

There has to be some consolation for this unmitigated disaster. I average probably 33-34"/winter and am sitting at 0.5" which was gone in less than an hour in Dec. Yesterday when the high fives were flying for many of you, so were my white rain-flakes for an hour. This isn't a great place for winter by any means but there should at least be a few half decent events per season.

Last winter I remember it sucking. Was it upgraded recently? Maybe it’s just finding a bone this winter.

Seems like we don’t have wall to wall winters anymore. 13-14 might have been the closest to that recently but we now have these 2-3 week periods where we have to run up the totals. 15-16 had the late Jan/early Feb period, 2020-21 had Feb (plus the Dec storm that was good for most), 17-18 had March and the 1/4/18 bomb, last winter had Jan, etc.

Maybe a few in denial but most are accepting this will be a crap winter. I had 23” for Central Park which will almost certainly bust way high but I was pretty clear eyed about how a third year Nina could be a disaster. There’s time for us to go on a 2-3 week good run but if this early Feb period doesn’t do it somehow it’s hard for me to see pulling out a March miracle. I was banking on that 2-3 week run like Jan last winter and Feb 2021 getting us some decent events but it’s hard to see that happening at this point.

Might come down to nowcasting tomorrow. If we see a heavy overrunning band headed through PA/NY we’ll know the NAM’s right. If not the RGEM’s right. My goose is cooked here but good luck for northern areas.

I’d gladly settle for a 1994-95 type one and done winter. Each of our 2020-21 storms where I ended up 45” for the winter and had near 18” snowpack in Feb had rain at some point. That definitely won’t happen this winter but maybe we can get a 2/22/08 or 2/4/95 type situation and get 6” before rain and some of it survives to the end. Can’t expect much better until we see blocking or a better PNA ridge that would force a further east storm tracks.

My bet is something eventually happens where NYC gets a quick 1-3 or 2-4” event which in even the most horrendous winters happens but even that requires some luck or a change in the pattern. We can’t count on snow in lousy patterns at our latitude.

Yeah maybe we can get lucky and score some front end snow in a SWFE type event where we have a departing high. But the high can be 10 trillion MB, it’s going to scoot out of the way if there’s no blocking/50-50 to keep it in place as a low is able to cut for the lakes. It may eventually redevelop but as you said that’s good for New England not us. If tomorrow’s event had a colder airmass in front we probably would be able to score some snow but we have a marginal crap airmass so it’ll be rain for 90% of us.

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. We’re also not seeing signs of blocking which would force redevelopments south of us.

Without any blocking it might just be that behind the cutters in early Feb it will just get cold before the next cutter. The PNA ridge axis is still too far west to allow offshore storm tracks here. Until that ridge meaningfully comes onshore and is centered over ID/UT maybe, we keep the cutters. Maybe that’s where we can get some front end snow before rain if the general regime is colder.

It has the overrunning coming through our area so that's positive at least. But it's pretty much on its own. Just about every other model has it going well north from I-84 north.

I'm at the acceptance/"what can go wrong goes wrong" stage of this winter. My expectations are nil so if something does happen I'll be thrilled for the 45 minutes it happens for. Once we get into these New England snow favored patterns they usually stay that way it seems.