jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Guardedly optimistic that some gets over the mountains, but we’ll have to see how heavy a band of snow can get started. In any case good luck to you guys.
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It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low.
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We essentially want that closed upper low to go underneath us. That would cause strong deepening of the surface low in a good location, and the upper low being south of us would funnel in lots of moisture into cold air. But we want the 500mb low to be closed to generate a real comma head/CCB snow band.
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If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better.
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Congrats State College!
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Could be a nice surprise for a narrow swath. Other models have it SW of the city, and drying out from downslope east of the mountains.
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There was sleet mixing in for a good chunk of the city around midnight and after that didn’t get into the Bronx. Temps in midtown may have been a degree or two warmer than surrounding areas as well. The sleet line might’ve gotten into Central Park.
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Nope, the record for Central Park's still in play. They only have 2.2" on the season, record is 2.8.
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This Nina needs to go away, period. This Nina is doing exactly what it should unfortunately. We got lucky in 20-21 and a lesser extent last winter but it was doomed to eventually smack us back into reality. Huge Western winter-CA usually isn't a Nina snow haven but the RNA was so extreme that it worked out for them too. Huge Upper Plains winter, and becoming a good NNE winter because of the SWFE train. Nina climo to a T.
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Exactly. If all this pattern change ends up being good for is to extend crappy raw 40s weather interrupted by a cutter, that’ll absolutely suck. Clear skies, 60s and take this so called winter out behind the barn then.
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Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome.
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Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter.
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Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard.
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Yup. Down to parking lot dirt piles.
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The Fri-Sat storm is done for 80-90% of us. The mid month hopefully pattern improvement is too far away to make any guesses about storms.
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The RNA triggers the SE ridge response and the storms try to cut. And we have a near record RNA so the impact is worse. If not for the blocking this would cut through the Great Lakes and the whole NE would’ve been a washout.
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You’re probably right but there could be a lot of sleet. The south trend looks real at this point. I doubt it would be all rain anyway north of the Tappan Zee. Won’t help us down here, just makes our rain a little colder while Boston makes up and then some for their shafting on Tuesday. I still hate SWFEs and this winter is still a big fat F until/unless this pattern mid month produces.
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And on the flip side, FV3 was too cold lol.
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I couldn’t care less because this one has been a definite washout here for days but the NAM was definitely a little too warm on 2/28. Had it being almost all sleet where I am and it ended up all snow.
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Was just outside and was just mist here. Yep, lousy days ahead
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I’d have to look it up but I’d think one of the March 2018 storms would count. As for Fri PM/Sat, models say enjoy the rain for most and sleet along I-84. This winter if we get nothing else is still a huge F, but it was deep winter looking yesterday AM here. Definitely picturesque.
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We care at this point about the ingredients being in place-the decaying NAO block, exiting western trough, cold air supply etc rather than any individual storm track.
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KU (Kocin-Uccelini) is defined by the snow amounts over the number of people impacted. KU has a “near miss” section for storms that impacted inland areas but with a few tweaks would have been massive coastal impacts, like 3/14/17. Blizzard of 96 had 20”+ amounts for every major city except Boston with 18” and had a huge overall area with those amounts, so it’s rated a 5. A storm like 12/30/00 had major impacts in NYC but not many other heavily populated areas so I think that’s rated just a 1.
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The dry air initially killed it for Boston then it became too warm for snow when the precip did move in. They’ll likely make up for it in the Fri/Sat event. Central Park never really got down to freezing and also likely mixed with some sleet so part of the snow didn’t accumulate.
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We’re shut out in terms of snow south of I-84, that’ll be for the SWFE favored areas along I-90 but maybe we can get more sleet if the south trend continues. We’re also not getting a real front end burst since the wave tries to amplify so far west of us. Models mostly time the main precip for when it’s already too warm here.
