jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding. The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally.
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Lol wow.
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Here just over an inch.
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About an inch here too. Looks nice. From the looks of radar last night it seemed like the snow was trying to edge a little north of where models were putting it.
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This could be the end for the futility record, Central Park needs 0.7” to go over the lowest ever.
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Guess that’s what I’ll be hoping for.
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Guardedly optimistic that some gets over the mountains, but we’ll have to see how heavy a band of snow can get started. In any case good luck to you guys.
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It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low.
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We essentially want that closed upper low to go underneath us. That would cause strong deepening of the surface low in a good location, and the upper low being south of us would funnel in lots of moisture into cold air. But we want the 500mb low to be closed to generate a real comma head/CCB snow band.
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If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better.
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Congrats State College!
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Could be a nice surprise for a narrow swath. Other models have it SW of the city, and drying out from downslope east of the mountains.
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There was sleet mixing in for a good chunk of the city around midnight and after that didn’t get into the Bronx. Temps in midtown may have been a degree or two warmer than surrounding areas as well. The sleet line might’ve gotten into Central Park.
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Nope, the record for Central Park's still in play. They only have 2.2" on the season, record is 2.8.
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This Nina needs to go away, period. This Nina is doing exactly what it should unfortunately. We got lucky in 20-21 and a lesser extent last winter but it was doomed to eventually smack us back into reality. Huge Western winter-CA usually isn't a Nina snow haven but the RNA was so extreme that it worked out for them too. Huge Upper Plains winter, and becoming a good NNE winter because of the SWFE train. Nina climo to a T.
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Exactly. If all this pattern change ends up being good for is to extend crappy raw 40s weather interrupted by a cutter, that’ll absolutely suck. Clear skies, 60s and take this so called winter out behind the barn then.
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Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome.
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Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter.
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Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard.
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Yup. Down to parking lot dirt piles.
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The Fri-Sat storm is done for 80-90% of us. The mid month hopefully pattern improvement is too far away to make any guesses about storms.
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The RNA triggers the SE ridge response and the storms try to cut. And we have a near record RNA so the impact is worse. If not for the blocking this would cut through the Great Lakes and the whole NE would’ve been a washout.
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You’re probably right but there could be a lot of sleet. The south trend looks real at this point. I doubt it would be all rain anyway north of the Tappan Zee. Won’t help us down here, just makes our rain a little colder while Boston makes up and then some for their shafting on Tuesday. I still hate SWFEs and this winter is still a big fat F until/unless this pattern mid month produces.
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And on the flip side, FV3 was too cold lol.
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I couldn’t care less because this one has been a definite washout here for days but the NAM was definitely a little too warm on 2/28. Had it being almost all sleet where I am and it ended up all snow.
