jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Upton going very conservative for the city/LI/south of I-80 and I agree. Euro and GGEM are nice to look at but I'd wait until tomorrow before getting optimistic especially when the GFS and UKMET still suck and how we know SWFEs usually trend at the end. Interior CT and the Hudson Valley are looking better though.
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Flurries starting here.
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GFS has been lousy for this storm here for days and favored upstate and SNE. Interesting battle between Euro and GFS, we’ll see which is right. It’s just hard for me to see a SWFE being a good outcome for most of us, 95% of them end up going to crap. But maybe this will be the 5% that defies the odds. The trend with the blocking is just as important. For us to have a chance we need it to hold on.
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It won't but verbatim 7-8:1 would still be a plowable/moderate event and could increase Central Park's snow for the season by 1000%. But I'm still expecting the inevitable tick back north these have. The dampening shortwave is the fly in the ointment that might prevent that though.
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This "winter" has one hell of a sense of humor. LA snow dusts Hollywood sign as winter storm tightens grip (yahoo.com) Why experts say this could be biggest snow event in decades - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
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Euro does look snowy from I-78 north with the Mon PM/Tue storm but it's due to shearing out/weakening the S/W which weakens the precip overall and forces it south under the confluence. A stronger wave would nudge it north. It has minor snow/coating for tomorrow. We get split by one area going upstate and another going through S NJ. I'd gladly take whatever snow we get and if by some miracle it's a plowable snow even better. This winter is so pathetic that the Hollywood Sign's beating NYC in seasonal snow now. Never thought that day would ever come.
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True. Like I said we’ll see what happens here. Seems to be overall a weaker/ sheared out trend too, but a stronger wave would try to erode the confluence more.
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0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue.
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Snow ratios in this will be less than 10-1 most likely since the best lifting won't be in the DGZ which is -12 to -18C. The mid levels will be warmer since the strong WAA will be coming in. I took a sounding near HPN at 81hr and the DGZ isn't entirely saturated and it's all the way up at 15000-17000 feet. Column isn't fully saturated until you're down at 700mb which is where the strong WAA starts and you're already close to 0C. Edit I checked the 18z run by mistake but at 75hr at the same spot the idea is the same. It does have the entire column 1C cooler or so, so the run did trend a bit cooler.
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It has a mid 980s low headed through N Michigan. I'll never be thrilled with that although it does start to form the coastal low fairly quickly. It's some snow to a crap ton of sleet where I am, probably a quick change to rain on the south shore/southern NYC. The warm layer comes in quick at 750-800mb so there's definitely still some good WAA. Looks like it's battling some dry air once you get into New England and the good dynamics from the developing coastal system that stays a little suppressed could hurt them verbatim. IMO this is about as good an outcome as we can hope for around NYC unless there's a major change in the evolution and the primary dies a lot quicker. My money is on this trending north again like almost every SWFE does at the end, it goes back to the good snow being focused on I-90/Boston and we have the quick sleet to rain near the city. But maybe this can be the diamond in the rough SWFE I mentioned earlier that comes along every few years and the confluence/blocking can really make a difference this time. Who knows.
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In reality that would probably be a ton of sleet. Haven’t looked at the soundings from that run but that’s what I’d do before looking at any snow maps. Models do have a ton of precip falling in a short period of time before a dry slot so maybe the heavy rates can cool the column down.
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NAM is always insanely amped at 84hrs. But shows the range of possibilities. RGEM would likely be a sleetfest for northern NYC/north shore and rain on the south shore. Shows temps for me at around 32-33 at the height of the precip and a nasty 750-800mb warm layer and 36-37 on the south shore which would be warm enough for rain.
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I think 2.4” is needed to avoid the record.
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Last winter they did much better than NYC too between suppressed storms and being lucky with the late Jan blizzard. I think they ended with 37” and NYC only had 18”?
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Maybe the blocking/confluence can stay a little more stout and we don’t have as strong a S/W riding into it and it shears out a little. I still rate this as unlikely but having a prayer vs totally screwed is a positive.
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The Keep Hope Alive run here on the north shore. I’d need to see more runs do the same but the fast decaying primary is really the only way NYC has a prayer with this one.
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Willing to bet very strongly that’s incorrect in a SWFE with 980s low west of Buffalo, with retreating confluence. I could see in a best case scenario a lot of sleet but even that’s far fetched when we also have strong ESE surface winds.
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Maybe. We’ll see what happens and what we can wet bulb down to. It could definitely be a sleet fest for many if we’re just a degree or two colder. Soundings do support frozen to start especially if it goes heavy quickly.
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We’ll have snowy winters again here. We just need this constant perma-Nina to end. We were also overdue for duds after the bonanzas over the last 20 years. Averages and climo always reassert themselves and we balance out. As has been mentioned many times we don’t live in Boston so we can’t expect their climo, even though if anything they’re more overdue than us.
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With SWFEs precip usually starts sooner than expected but since there’s a good amount of confluence, the precip might get eaten up by dry air for a while. We probably get the vast majority of what we’ll get within 6 hours or so because there’s a huge dry slot that will come in on Tue AM. But we won’t wet bulb down to 32, we have an onshore strengthening wind and these always have the nasty mid level warm layer, so most likely it’s sleet then to rain within an hour in the city.
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As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end.
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When any improvement gets to within day 5 I’ll start to care. I’m done with the 8-10 day model hallucinations. I’m sure any “improvement” will come just in time to drive back door fronts in for spring though.
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Look at soundings before any clown snow map outputs. I haven’t for this run but for me if the primary low is driving up west of Buffalo it tells me all I need to know for what I should expect.
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3/20/18 was good in Long Beach but way better where I am now where there was up to 18”. I had 10” or so of absolute glop. 4/7/03 was another where there was easily 6” on the south shore in the middle of the day. But so many others I remember white rain or struggles to accumulate while the N Shore did so easily.
