wxmeddler

NAM has later/bigger phase with stout 850 low over the Ozarks. We get crushed in the initial hit but would for sure lead to mixing.

Ironically, the cut-off low that is being sampled is likely not the most uncertain piece of the puzzle.

Yep, not sure we should be celebrating or jumping off hypothetical bridges when we have this much run to run inconsistencies still. I've been telling stakeholders 12z Friday guidance is "lock-in" time since Monday AM. Patience.

So, they are. The thing is that this is by far an overrunning event rather than a typical CCB coastal event. These types of over-running events don't happen too often, and 95% of the time lead to mix or rain. Now, that said, this storm is different in that we have an extremely cold airmass embedding itself over the area on Friday. So things to look forward for are: 1. How / where does the phasing happen over the southern plains. The faster the Sub-Tropical Cut-Off (relative to the pacific stream s/w) ejection the better. 2. The placement and strength of the 850 low over the OHV. The weaker the better, though this is related to #1 3. The strength and more particularly the depth of the cold air wedge that develops on Friday. The stronger the better obviously.

Just want to point out / take a step back that regarding the potential evolution, even though the precipitation and outcomes look similar, we still have a long way to go in order to understand how this is going to unfold dynamically.

Because it's not a dynamical model, it doesn't have the levels to create soundings. I don't know if it even has 700mb output.

The cold front on Friday is really impressive. -19C at 850 is nuts for any front let alone one 36 hrs before a precip shield moves in. It could be quite bad.

I think the Chicago thing was a bit of a joke, but he is concerned about the 850 low tracking west of us and the coastal not developing as rapidly as advertised given that partial phasing is happening over the Ozarks.

He's been in informal communications with LWX. I think they are kind of all of on the same page that have been echoed here.

I think he's also used to an era that you could have a 300 mile shift 24 hours prior to an event and it not be uncommon.

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general. Don't shoot the messenger.

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago"

Gah damn. What a Synoptic setup.

Hell'uva phase. No longer a sliding over-runner.

This is why I don't trust Cut-Offs Edit: At D5... in a data-sparse region...

I'm only through H72 but the cut-off is faster ejecting and the s/w is more amped. This is a more amped solution

I prefer DIFAX Maps personally

Classic Flash Freeze. Road & Air temps just above freezing. Get either light rain or snow, enough to get everything wet. Then clear skies post frontal turns everything to ice.

Areas that got the snow today, temps are diving off a cliff this evening with the clear skies.

The sky is an all-encompassing bright orange color right now due to the sunset reflection off of the baroclinic leaf overcast. Likely would be an epic sunset if it wasn't snowing.

Snow TV good

We have to pump up the weenies hopes and dreams before nature comes and crushes them... that's what the script says at least. Did you not receive a copy yet?

You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.

Let me guess, DCA had 0.1” and it was all sleet.

All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.