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wxmeddler

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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. wxmeddler
    Just saw the 12z GFS and came in to say that whenever you have 3 streams/waves interacting, the results are either explosive or disappointing. And 90% of the time, it's the latter. Stay full-hearted weenies. The overall pattern is good and we're entering peak season.
  2. wxmeddler
    Sure, you could have the low stack stall out just off the coast producing a longer duration storm. In my mind, we would need that southern stream s/w to not eject or get so strung out that it gets folded into the oncoming impulse from the dakota's but I'm not holding my breath on that. But... This is a triple phase setup, so things usually get messy.
  3. wxmeddler
    Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year. The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay.
  4. wxmeddler
    Regarding the moisture issue: Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants.
  5. wxmeddler
    Trust the Synoptics
  6. wxmeddler
    In a relative vorticity framework you get positive vorticity by either curvature (around a low) or by a positive change in wind speed to the right of the vector. Vort "lobes" tend to be produced by the curvature in, or in advance of a low, and the "ribbons" tend to be from areas of high wind shear across a horizontal distance. Look at an H5 wind map, then look at at an H5 Rel. Vort map, then flip them back and forth. You'll see it.
  7. wxmeddler
    Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now.
  8. wxmeddler
    Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE. But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol
  9. wxmeddler
    The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign
  10. wxmeddler
    I'm looking forward to the rain tomorrow.
  11. wxmeddler
    Not a bad place to be a week out.
  12. wxmeddler
    Found this on another forum
  13. wxmeddler
    Torch
  14. wxmeddler
    I plotted it out graphically. Ouch. N 125 Mean 21.4 Median 21.7 Std. Dev 4.1
  15. wxmeddler
    Assume no snow until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise is my mantra. 60 percent of the time... it works... every-time.
  16. wxmeddler
    Got a sudden and rude awakening by the WEA from my NYE stupor. My guess is that there are going to be many an upset person after that one. Thankfully it didn’t awaken the wife. Patiently awaiting the squall.
  17. wxmeddler
    Up-slope with diving mid-continent polar air masses are putting in the work. Pick the highest latitude / altitude combo.
  18. wxmeddler
    Sugar grain snow? Doesn't look like dendrites.
  19. wxmeddler
    The snow squall on Thursday pre-sunrise looks legit. Might have to set up an alarm for that one.
  20. wxmeddler
    It's not in Thurmont. The station is at Camp David which is at nearly the highest point in the Catoctins. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRSP
  21. wxmeddler
    The front is fun. 10 deg drop in 8 min and a gust to 42 at Thurmont currently.
  22. wxmeddler
    Yes, the hodographs, as taken by themselves, are prime tornadic hodographs. However, the reason why they are like that is due to the surface inversion. If the surface inversion was mixed out then the 0-1 length would be shorter, but still capable of causing trouble.
  23. wxmeddler
    LWX is confident too much sfc stability, but I’m not so sure we don’t get some sort of dynamics that could break through. Won’t be widespread.
  24. wxmeddler
    #wedge
  25. wxmeddler
    I have a sneaking suspicion looking at satellite that places in N Baltimore and higher elevations of Harford co are plummeting right now.
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