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wxmeddler

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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. wxmeddler
    That video and some pictures from a warehouse definitely is some high end EF1 / low end EF2 type stuff.
  2. wxmeddler
    So, well done. Yes, I think we're about cooked. Cold Pool city out there N/W of 95 S of Balt.
  3. wxmeddler
    MLCAPE of 1100 and skinny. 0-3km CAPE is only ~70. The 3-8km shear is only ~10kts. I'm thinking water loading in the upper levels is leading to cold pool production that's killing the balance. If anything today I expect low level rotation with scud tendril funnels.
  4. wxmeddler
    18z LWX Sounding
  5. wxmeddler
    Need a Blue Box / Red Box version of the Duck Season / Rabbit Season Looney Toons skit.
  6. wxmeddler
    Internally, it seems that SPC wanted to get something out as storms were firing earlier than expected on the Blue Ridge and the Chestertown cell. And now are replacing the areas where they feel the red box is needed.
  7. wxmeddler
    Red
  8. wxmeddler
    Red Box coming soon.
  9. wxmeddler
  10. wxmeddler
    I didn't expect the 5% or the # for that matter.
  11. wxmeddler
    Despite me taking the best day of this week to mow, more than a week after the last meaningful rainfall, the bottom of my grass was still soaked and stalled the mower aft it choked on grass soup. Drought my ...
  12. wxmeddler
    1.62" in 30 minutes at the Edgewood Mesonet site. That's a 1/10 year event according to ATLAS14.
  13. wxmeddler
    Need a cold front, pronto.
  14. wxmeddler
    KLWX is out, they're troubleshooting. But there are the TDWR's around. The Tornado warning was dumb IMHO.
  15. wxmeddler
    Poor lapse rates and all of the 0-6km shear is in the lowest 2km. 2-8km shear is near zero. Water loading (updrafts on top of downdrafts due to lack of shear) and no CAPE = showers.
  16. wxmeddler
    The SPC is creating a new Mesoanalysis based on a HRRR DA system. There was a recent SLS presentation about it. No idea! I asked about this specifically in a Q/A... and they provided a written answer! "The NAM is known to perform well for cold-air damming events. A comprehensive assessment of the RRFS’s ability to capture cold air damming events has not been conducted. However, subjective assessments indicate that it likely does not perform as well as the NAM for this phenomenon. This is a development priority for future releases."
  17. wxmeddler
    The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)
  18. wxmeddler
    Last year I was stomping lantern flies everywhere. Seems only had to stomp a few this year.
  19. wxmeddler
    I left Twitter / X / whatever and Facebook years ago and never looked back. This is my social media.
  20. wxmeddler
    I maintain that SVR-Considerable with Tor Possible wording would have sufficed. 65 mph EF-0 is only 5 mph over base SVR. I don't believe there was any threat beyond a QLCS spinup of what we saw, and that took the open water and maybe a boundary to make it happen.
  21. wxmeddler
    There was an SCN that went out about it last year and there was no indication in there that there was going to be a replacement or complementary service. The SCN went put at about the same time as other things which were curtailing the access / dissemination of climate information.
  22. wxmeddler
    Very few perfectly clear areas that did not have smoke or clouds muddying the signal, but yes! Federalsburg on the eastern shore was about the best.
  23. wxmeddler
    Photo of the eclipse today from College Park by Dr. Ross Salawich, a professor in Atmospheric Sciences Department here at UMD.
  24. wxmeddler
    Mosquito larvae don't care about cold. If you've ever been to the Minnesota or Canadian Northwoods or Alaska in summer you're gonna get swarmed. The joke in Alaska is you need a frying pan to kill them they're so big. And those locations get down to -40 and below. I do know that Mosquito spawning cycles are temperature and moisture dependent but I'm not knowledgeable beyond that.
  25. wxmeddler
    Those are bad velocities from the dust / bugs etc. ahead of the gust front.
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