wxmeddler

We'll take it:

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

GFS is lost. Toss it.

It got a lot warmer than I thought it would today. Clouds kept the temps down east of the Blue Ridge

Needed more wind or more fair weather cumulus. But a 9/10 day. Gulf Stream low getting pulled north looks interesting coming into the weekdays.

A perfect light soaking rain last night. Just enough to reprieve the short root grasses and alleviate tree leave stress. The farmers... are not happy, too little for a proper late season growth spurt, and just enough to make everything that has reached maturity damp.

This back door marine flow is not going to let go.

Not a cloud for Howard Co area and west to the Alleghenies http://mesonet.umd.edu/Clarksville

I've played with the HMP155's a lot. We had over 300 of them when I worked in North Dakota. I think they're the best Temp/RH combo instrument on the market right now, especially if you put them in an aspirated shield. They occasionally have a 1-3% low bias in RH at very high humidities (96-100%) but other than that they work fantastic as long as you keep them maintained and calibrated on the regular schedule. Vaisala recommends every year, but we did them every 2 years and it was no loss in quality. 95% of the ones we sent back for calibration after 2 years came back with only minor (<.2°C) (1-3%RH) adjustments.

Dry soil is a huge factor in getting larger diurnal swings. We're pretty dry statewide at 4" and getting to the point at 8" where some types of grasses are having trouble accessing water due to their shallower root systems.

I'm saving this for future powerpoints. Thanks.

For as much as we suffered through June & July; JJA as a season is gonna come back looking average.

TS Watches for OBX as of the 5p advisory

The washing machine took me out 2 weeks ago when the last NE'ly flow event happened. I'm still finding sand in places you'd never think sand could ever reach.

18z GFS has a doozy. Some very weak ensemble support as well. Odds still very much against though.

The Ridgely MD Mesonet station picked up 1.10" in 20 min. That's impressive.

Can't complain for July 22nd. The lower dew points didn't sink as far south as I expected.

The flooding down in Fauquier / Manassas counties sounds isolatedly bad.

Sfc-6km mean wind was ~10kts which is borderline flash flooding territory, but the CAM's all had good agreement on this being a cold-pool driven event. Seems like the bay breeze caused trouble though in Lancaster county.

The cell in northern Loudoun / S Frederick Co's is first cell today that I've seen push 50dbz above the -20c level, so that's something.

Agreed. The hygrometer is usually the first instrument to go wacky. They likely haven't calibrated / replaced it in awhile.

That seems way too high. What does it say the is the T/Td is?

A Blue Box with 42m people in it.

The bay waters are are pushing 85+, the high dew points have not allowed ET off the surface to cool it. People are going to be talking about marine heat wave soon if this keeps up another few weeks.

Based on the MD just issued, I'm assuming a severe T-storm watch is coming soon. T-Storm warnings now for Culpeper / Fauquier