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wxmeddler

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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. wxmeddler
    Stronger and further west at H5 coming out from the northern plains
  2. wxmeddler
    I got woken up by the sound of heavy rain. I went to go see and just after I opened the door I saw a flash of light. I thought to myself “no, can’t be” then boom. Yep! What a surprise that is!
  3. wxmeddler
    Cut-Off's (especially decaying ones) suck to forecast man...
  4. wxmeddler
    Need the Alberta s/w to either show up in the OHV 12 hrs earlier or just not show up at all. Euro has the messiest of both.
  5. wxmeddler
    I'm at H42, southern stream s/w looks slightly deeper and a tad west. The alberta s/w is very strung out over the dakotas. The "middle stream" s/w is getting ahead of the southern s/w. Looks messy.
  6. wxmeddler
    AIFS brings in the Alberta s/w faster and thus is later with the phase. It takes longer / further east to go negative tilt. Ironically, the opposite of the direction of the trends with the GFS/NAM with the alberta s/w lagging behind and not interacting with the southern stream, and acting as more like a kicker.
  7. wxmeddler
    Oh man, that's pretty.
  8. wxmeddler
    Looks like the NAM more than anything else, the Alberta s/w is hanging back.
  9. wxmeddler
    I'm not a fan of the FV3 core at sub-10km-ish scales. Glad the plan is to drop it in favor of MPAS. However, we're gonna loose the NAM and have the RRFS FV3 only for a year or two before the switch to MPAS apparently.
  10. wxmeddler
    It's good. The lagging s/w coming out of Alberta is interesting, but good trends for the coastal.
  11. wxmeddler
    Much more negatively tilted on the 18z EPS / AIEPS. Still goes to our east / too late to curl into the coast, but a concession.
  12. wxmeddler
    Holy Shift
  13. wxmeddler
    For the Euro watchers, I will say that the 12z Op is now definitely an outlier in the cohesiveness and timing of the s/w rounding the OHV. The foreign global and AI are much more set on a more westward solution. To the extent of the 18z GFS? lol no, but I'd say at this point we have something decent to work with here for measurable snow at least for eastern portions of the board.
  14. wxmeddler
    We are giving it credit because it shows the most snow. I think if you polled the mets and serious forecasters here they would say that it's likely not correct but it is "interesting". Next step for the snow lovers is to see if other guidance starts to bend towards the westerly solution.
  15. wxmeddler
    Here is the 10:1
  16. wxmeddler
    That verbatim (which I don't believe for a second) would be an all-time eastern shore crippler.
  17. wxmeddler
    Brought it 100 miles west.
  18. wxmeddler
    Holy ---- the GFS. What the ----
  19. wxmeddler
    The coldest spot in the mesonet today is the Kent Island station with a NE sea-breeze.
  20. wxmeddler
    Yeah, it's a good hit. The H5 really digs. Need another scoot 150 mi west, that's asking for a lot though. (It will be 300mi east next run)
  21. wxmeddler
    Horrible run to run consistency with the GFS so far. But this run looks good at h96 thus far.
  22. wxmeddler
    I'm a simple man, I see a thread pinned for an event within 5 days, I click. Let's start this slop-clock!
  23. wxmeddler
    I have seen 7 Snowflakes today. Not quite to my personal 10 flakes to a trace threshold.
  24. wxmeddler
    It's in a mini-cold sink. Cannan of the Maryland Piedmont
  25. wxmeddler
    Impressive
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