hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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The 12z GFS deepens this system by nearly 30 mb in 18 hours Sunday over the central gulf, and 45 mb in 30 hours.
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I picked up another 0.20" from a stationary area of rain this morning. A heavy cell parked over the county just sw of Cedar Rapids and dropped 3-4" down there.
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The model trend is not just north, but also to develop it earlier near the Yucatan channel. For days models were showing a last-minute developer.
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I was in the screw zone for weeks, but I've been hit good three times in the last four days. I picked up another 1.07" this evening. The first line crapped out and dropped very little, but the second line really came through. Previous 7 weeks: 0.98" Last four days: 2.75" I could not have asked for more out of this pattern. My luck has flipped hard. Let's keep this going.
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There is no wind with this second line, just very heavy rain with some lightning/thunder (first line had none).
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Nice little bow moving into Cedar Rapids. The shelf cloud was pretty nice.
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It's very gusty behind the outflow boundary, but the storms are bit bubbly moving into CR.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
So the Euro has gone from Mexico to Texas and now Louisiana. -
Iowa's sloppy seconds for the win again.
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A nice line of storms sank southeast through eastern Iowa this morning. The rain rate wasn't super heavy, perhaps because it wasn't particularly warm and humid, but ninety minutes of steady to occasionally heavy rain dumped 1.13" on my yard. The driest part of the area got the most rain, so it worked out perfectly. Now we just need a few more of these south-sinking lines this week. It's possible the building heat could keep everything north.
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17" of rain is insane. In my lifetime I think about 7" is the most Cedar Rapids has received (and that was at least several hours). It has been thirteen years since our last 5" rain.
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The latest recon dropsonde measured 988 mb, so no change. Maybe the new convective blowup can get the pressure down a couple mb.
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Officially 988 mb, per dropsonde.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show a tropical cyclone in the western gulf at the end of the month. That's pretty good agreement considering it's still over a week out. -
Ironically, just as they upgrade it to hurricane the core convection craps out.
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The storms dropped 0.56" of rain here overnight. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal, but I haven't had a solid rain like this since June.
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Dropsonde says 996 mb with 31 kt wind, so ~993 mb.
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The deep convection is still firing well southeast of the center. Recon just fixed the center near 31.5N 74W, at the nw edge of the cirrus canopy.
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One final recon plane is now en route.
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The 12z HWRF never drops Henri below the 980s. A few to several runs ago it was taking it down to the 960s, 950s, or even 940s. It was never going to drop that low, but the HWRF is oddly now among the weakest models.
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980 mb, should be final recon pass for now. I'm not sure they'll even send another plane down there given how close it is to landfall.
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Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection.
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Per recon, definitely a hurricane again... 983 mb 92 kts flight level wind
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A couple things I noticed on today's models... First, the UK initializes Henri too strong (low to mid 980s). Second, while the Euro initializes it pretty well, it then weakens it as it heads north. That is odd considering the rest of the models strengthen it during the same period.
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So far, today, every attempt to fire core convection has poofed out rather quickly. Dry air appears to be a problem.
