hawkeye_wx

There's an emerging bust forecast from a couple models, at least for Thursday and Thursday night. Unfortunately, it looks very plausible. DVN is talking about this possibility as well. If a big MCS dives down through Missouri Thursday morning, then the Thursday evening MCS may fire up in Missouri again, along the boundary. If that happens, locations to the north will be in a major screw zone. Much of Iowa may need to wait til Friday night when a disturbance rides up through the state. Hopefully, the Missouri convection will die off before then. Here's the WPC forecast through Friday morning. Here's the HRRR

I'm happy to report the band of rain hung back through my area all night and dumped 1.01" in my gauge.

Models are suggesting an upper trough will dig down into the upper midwest later this week and then park for several days. That would keep clouds and showers around and keep the temp down.

The Cedar Rapids airport hit 43º this morning, a new record low.

This would be great for the drought corridor from Iowa to Michigan.

Models are also showing some locations in our area getting good rain later Tuesday. That rain may be included in the 3" you mentioned, though.

Cedar Rapids was fortunate to have the line fill in at the last minute. I picked up a quick 0.64" of rain to boost my daily total to 0.86". For much of the afternoon/evening it looked like CR would get nothing, so I'm quite pleased.

We need to get the clouds and showers out of here. It is currently still only 70º.

The SPC has a big part of northern Iowa in the enhanced severe region, but this morning's HRRR and 3kNAM are both capped dud's for most of Iowa.

Had a bit of streaky lightning with thunder this morning, but the storms passed through with little rain (0.04"). I'm afraid tonight's storms will remain north and northeast of my area.

00z Euro is finally out. The general consensus appears to be close to this, if not a bit more in southern WI. It's looking iffy for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

I'm liking the more active pattern models are showing late this week into next week.

The air is dry (dew 49º), but it's pretty warm out there. Blazing sun, very little wind, and 88º feels quite toasty.

Our dew held steady around 60º this morning, but it has finally dropped into the 40s as the second wave of drier air sweeps in.

The dry air sweeps in tomorrow morning and will remain for several days. With dews in the 40s and 50s, mornings and evenings should be pretty pleasant.

I was lucky to have a nice, little cell move over me last hour. There was a bit of thunder and 0.25" of rain. It's my first rain this month.

A little teaser from this morning's op Euro.

A local met said this is the first year since 1976 in which Cedar Rapids recorded no rainfall during the first week of June.

The Euro has a deep upper trough pulling 20s/30s dewpoint down into Iowa next week. While that would feel great, it also means no rain until at least late June. Models show our only rain chance is a few spotty cells Tuesday afternoon.

It's looking bleak for rain here through mid month.

Cedar Rapids officially hit 90º for the first time this afternoon.

It's shocking that 1993 was actually just as slow, severe-wise, as this year up to this point. All I remember about '93 was how it stormed and rained constantly all summer. I was golfing a lot that summer and the courses were always flooded. It seems '93 was pretty dead, but then Mother Nature flipped the switch in early June. Unfortunately, 2021's line will likely end up somewhere in the blank area at the bottom.

May severe thunderstorm warnings

So, apparently, it's going to rain and storm in Texas and Louisiana all summer, too? Let's spread it around a bit.