hawkeye_wx

It appears likely Cedar Rapids is going to get absolutely nothing tonight as storms pass north and south. Un f'ing believable.

The Benton county storm is lifting a bit north as it moves east, so it's out of the picture for Cedar Rapids. If I'm going to get anything, it'll have to be from the west.

This morning's storms mostly split around me. The initial strong line barely wet the ground. A trailing cell got me up to 0.24". I need tonight's action to perform well.

It continues to be very cool here, but we're not getting much rain out of it... only a couple hundredths today.

I've only received 0.13" out of this turd.

This event is a total bust over here. As usual, if the first MCS misses south you are done, because nearly all future action will be south as well. This is what happened two weeks ago and it's happening again. Most models have major trouble figuring this out and end up painting big rain totals way too far north.

A golfball+ hailstorm just moved through the Des Moines area.

How would you like to live in a town where your garden can get zapped by cold in the middle of July? Ugh.

The radar presentation has really crapped out over the last hour.

The GFS is well south with the heavy stuff. The other globals track it across Iowa. That is how it was before the big event two weeks ago as well.

The 12z GFS is, ironically, much weaker through the Caribbean than previous runs.

The first recon mission is finished.

New center dropsonde says it's still only ~1003 mb.

DVN FINALLY just issued a flash flood warning for Marion.

There continues to be some scattered cells in my area. The rain is isolated, but quite heavy. Fortunately, I am one of the lucky few. I received 0.67" from a line that popped over me this evening and drifted north of Cedar Rapids. Then the line stalled and sagged back south and dropped another 1.25" in my yard tonight. My daily total is 2.05". Meanwhile, there is a personal station 1.4 miles to my south that has only received 0.08". In the other direction (ne), Marion has been clobbered. There are stations going over 5 or even 6" tonight.

I got a nice surprise this evening. A tiny cell popped right over my yard and barely moved for a while. I picked up a quick 0.67" to boost my multi-day event total to 0.87". Only a mile to my west and a mile to my south, nothing fell this evening.

I've received 0.20" from this big rain event. The CAMs are showing much of the rain over the next two days falling nw or well southeast.

I picked up a bit of rain as the light rain shield expanded north. The warm advection wing of the MCS parked for a while down by Ottumwa. Radar suggests several inches fell to the southeast of town. They are really getting clobbered in the St. Joseph, MO area. Radar shows a band of near a foot of rain has fallen to the nw of town and storms are still training. Nobody wants that sh*t.

It continues to look like a bust here. Maybe we can get lucky and catch a couple cells Friday night.

The HRRR continues to predict a huge bust for some areas. One MCS after another blows up in Missouri, which leads to a screw zone to the north.

Go ahead and throw out the RGEM. It doesn't even see the MCS blowing up in Nebraska, which will dive into Missouri by morning.

Here's the 00z HRRR through Friday evening. It has a bit more up into Iowa, but still focused south.

There's an emerging bust forecast from a couple models, at least for Thursday and Thursday night. Unfortunately, it looks very plausible. DVN is talking about this possibility as well. If a big MCS dives down through Missouri Thursday morning, then the Thursday evening MCS may fire up in Missouri again, along the boundary. If that happens, locations to the north will be in a major screw zone. Much of Iowa may need to wait til Friday night when a disturbance rides up through the state. Hopefully, the Missouri convection will die off before then. Here's the WPC forecast through Friday morning. Here's the HRRR

I'm happy to report the band of rain hung back through my area all night and dumped 1.01" in my gauge.

Models are suggesting an upper trough will dig down into the upper midwest later this week and then park for several days. That would keep clouds and showers around and keep the temp down.