The models are all continuing to trend west tonight. The GFS, GDPS (Canadian), and UK all have the highest totals in central, or even western, Iowa.
Update: Yikes, the latest Euro moves the heavy snow to western Iowa.
00z Euro is still sw of the other models... really dives the energy south.
It had looked like there would be nothing of interest for many of us for another 10-14 days. Now all models are suddenly on board a solid snow for some of us in only five days.
Cedar Rapids had an afternoon high of -3º (the official high was 0º at midnight). Tonight the forecast is a low of -15º, but it wouldn't surprise me if the airport fell a bit lower.
For years my Ariens snowblower blew snow poorly. When it encountered deeper or dense snow the flow out the chute would quickly collapse. The last couple years it was bad and incredibly frustrating. It took forever to clear my driveway and my neighbor's. Recently I found some YouTube videos showing how adjusting the idler pulley tightens the auger/impeller belt and leads to better blowing power. The day before the New Year's Day storm I made a simple 1/4" inward adjustment to the pulley, which snugged the belt nicely. It totally solved the problem! The blower instantly went from shit to better than it was when purchased fourteen years ago. The flow out the chute remained strong no matter how much snow was being fed into the auger. Even the dense plow snow at the end of the driveway was cleared with ease. Now, instead of dreading having to clear deep or wet snow, I know it will be easy. It's a game-changer. I sure wish I had made the simple fix years ago.
The Cedar Rapids airport officially hit -12º this morning, but here in town only -3º. Most stations in the area were several degrees higher than the CR airport.
I measured an average of 5.6" on my snow boards. I thought we were done, but another good band is moving through now so my total will go up a bit. There is a 6.5" report from Marion (ne edge of Cedar Rapids) and a 7" report from the ne side of CR.
This snow is mountain powder over here because the column was so cold. I have 12+" drifts that can be lifted with a shovel like a pile of feathers.
The temp here is 9º, so the snow is light as a feather. While there are big drifts on my driveway, the snow in the fence-enclosed backyard is surprisingly uniform and easy to measure.
We are over-performing here in Cedar Rapids. I'm up to 4". The dry models were certainly wrong. It has been snowing moderately to heavily for four hours and that should continue for another hour or two.
The last couple HRRR runs have dropped our total down again, but it is too dry. It shows no accumulating snow til nearly 2pm, but the snow began at 11am.
Models are really turding out over here. On the HRRR, the Omaha to Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque corridor has fallen off the cliff on the north edge. Cedar Rapids is down to 2" while the others are <1". With that little snow, from only 0.1" precip, it may be difficult to even measure .