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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. Latest dropsonde says 929 mb now (932 mb with 30kt wind)
  2. NHC official update: 949 mb, 130 mph.
  3. Dropsonde says 950 mb, not as low as the extrap suggested. It's rapid strengthening, just not Holy Cow! strengthening.
  4. Whoa, looks like another 10 mb drop over the last 90 minutes... bombing. Cripes... I need to get sleep, but how can I possibly fall asleep now?
  5. Ida has upgraded to the tire look now.
  6. That is an 11 mb drop over the last four hours.
  7. A second plane has arrived and is headed into the storm from the nw.
  8. Two new center dropsonde reports, ~984 mb and ~982 mb.
  9. The latest hot towers are pinwheeling more tightly around the center than the ones first thing this morning. Steady deepening should begin soon.
  10. New dropsonde: 985 mb I thought for sure Ida would be in full strengthening mode this morning, but so far it's not happening. It is only holding steady while it tries to form an inner core. Ida only has about thirty hours left over water.
  11. New dropsonde: 985 mb It's still just holding fairly steady.
  12. Models have been locked into a south-central/southeast Louisiana swamp coast landfall for a while.
  13. The newest recon dropsonde, ten minutes after the 985 mb dropsonde, says 986 mb. Even quick passage over a thin stretch of Cuba disrupts a storm. It has taken a good ten hours to regroup.
  14. Per recon dropsonde, the pressure is ~991 mb.
  15. Low 990s extrap pressure from recon. We probably shouldn't expect to see too much until the entire core gets out into the gulf (~several hours)
  16. HWRF down to 933 mb on the latest run.
  17. A new recon plane is on the way, should be there when the center emerges into the gulf.
  18. Radar shows the center of the eye just reached the Cuban coast at 7pm EDT.
  19. SPC has much of northern Iowa in the enhanced severe area, but the decaying morning MCS has really put the kibosh on instability across the state. I'm afraid it may have ruined tonight storms.
  20. The GFS continues to forecast another storm will form in about the same location (Caribbean) once Ida moves inland.
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