hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Some recent model op runs have been good for Iowa, but the model ensembles are suggesting this overrunning/cutter pattern has a better chance of being suppressed to the south of Iowa. I'm hopeful, but not optimistic.
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As good as the op GFS looks, there are a lot of ensemble members that look very different. Many have no snow at all in Iowa.
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True. The precip type and snow apps are a big plus for Pivotal. Tropical Tidbits does have free 06z/18z runs and 3hr increments.
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Tropical Tidbits just added a bunch of Euro data, including 06z and 18z runs. The ECMWF has made of bunch of their stuff free. Sadly, that does not include precip-type or snowfall maps, but it's still pretty nice.
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There was a heated discussion about the frequency of significant snowstorms in Detroit and Chicago on another thread. I just checked my records and it's pretty ugly. Over the last fifteen winters I have only had four 9" snowstorms. That's it... FOUR!!! My last 9" snowstorm was in early February of 2015, seven years ago. Cedar Rapids is a 1-6" climate.
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We have a modest snow cover, but the lack of deeper, fresh snow helped to keep us only in the low to mid negative teens this morning.
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My three-clipper snow total is 0.2".
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The surface low is passing directly over Cedar Rapids. The temp near my house just jumped to 37º while the temp is in the 20s a couple miles north. All I got out of this system was a light dusting at the end.
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It's up to 28º here. Radar looks busy, but not a single flake has fallen.
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The next clipper, which models were tracking well north of Iowa, is now shown producing 1-2" of snow around here on some models.
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The HRRR continues to drift north and now has the heavy snow band reaching up to Madison. MKX hasn't even issued an advisory for Madison. Meanwhile, Cedar Rapids is in the advisory despite models having trended to showing little to nothing.
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It's looking like 1, maybe 2 inches if we're lucky, on the southern edge of the early Sunday clipper snow band. Cyclone may do a little better. A few spots a county or two north of me may get 3-4".
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My backyard hit -10º this morning. The airport hit -15º. Ames hit -20º.
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We are halfway through the snow season and my backyard has received almost exactly 50% of a typical season total.
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I'm going with an estimate of 6.2" for a total. It's more a guess than anything, based on earlier measurements and more hours of solid snow into the night, because it's impossible to measure. Des Moines officially received 14.3".
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I'm estimating about 4.8" here. The wind is making it difficult.
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I'm up to about 3.9".
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I'm up to 3.1". The rate has averaged about 0.5"/hr this afternoon. The latest HRRR continues to predict several more inches. That may be overdoing it, but it shouldn't be difficult to get a few more.
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The current radar loop shows the snow withering away as it crosses the river. I hope you can get a few inches out of this.
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I'm at 1.1" so far.
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The model average precip for you is 0.25".
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The Euro now has much of eastern Iowa in the 6+" snow.
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The 00z NAM, 3kNAM, and FV3 all have 6-8" here. They even have 3-4" eastward to Cyclone's backyard.
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The trend today is to expand the snow farther east through eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids was wobbling on the sharp cliff edge this morning. Now we're solidly into 4-6+".
