hawkeye_wx

Scattered very light rain and sprinkles yesterday and overnight added up to a mighty 0.10".

Pressure is down to 993 mb.

Pressure is down to 997 mb. We're still waiting for some good convection over the center, but it has tightened up a bit.

Upper divergence has improved significantly over the last 24 hours. It just needs to tighten up the core. Maybe some good convection tonight will do it.

The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.

And, just like that, the Euro shows how to get a landfall in Florida. Land interaction keeps Fiona weak and shallow while just enough weak ridging remains in place to the north, then the big northeast US trough digs just far enough east to barely bypass Fiona and not pull it away.

The Euro is remaining farther south this run, continuing wnw and weak over the islands.

Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward.

My records show quite a few big rain events up through 2015. There was a ten-year stretch when I AVERAGED 8" in June. I remember putting the pump on the patio and bailing out the window wells. There just hasn't been anything like that in recent years, that's all. While I love heavy rain, I certainly don't want water in the basement again. One of these years we'll get a 5+" event and have water issues again.

Rockford has done well recently. RFD reported 6" over two days in early August and now they get another 5". It has been several years since my last 4" event.

It is 70º and sunny over here with a gusty north wind.

It appears the Rockford area is the bullseye... already 2-3" with another 2+" on the way.

I received 0.73" overnight. I was hoping for 1+", but the system slid to the east a bit too much. Much of the rain total was from long-duration light to very light rain, so it certainly wasn't exciting.

The new UK shifted the good rain east of my area, but the GFS, GDPS, and Euro are solid with 1+". I'd have loved the 3-4", but it's just not our year for that. 12z Euro

Yeah, that pocket of dry air never allowed the core to get that real pretty look we like to see. It did well to drop to about 960 mb.

Models have trended toward a farther north track of the upper low this weekend, so the rain bullseye has been moved to Wisconsin.

Recon just measured 107 kt at flight level east of the center. The convective ring around the center is really beginning to come together now.

New dropsonde found 971 mb. The shear is gradually diminishing as the upper low to the west drifts south and the hurricane lifts north. Outflow is really fanning out.

Latest dropsonde pressure is 976 mb.

Models have converged on a similar scenario this weekend into next week. It appears there will be widespread 1-3" of rain under the deformation zone with some areas receiving 4-6". Every model shows this now. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of a major screw zone. This morning's Euro does exactly that for southeast Iowa. The Euro is very strong and stalls the low right over me or just west. Southeast Iowa gets major dry-slotted while a ton of rain falls to the nw. The UK, on the other hand, has eastern Iowa near the western edge of the heavy stuff. The Canadian has 1-3" from Nebraska through Michigan. An average of the current models would be fine, but that Euro scares me.

Satellite presentation is not pretty, but the pressure has dropped to 978 mb.

Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off. Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks. The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard.

It has become incredibly boring. Lawns are browning again and there is little to no rain in sight. This year we don't even get any tropical action to distract from our local boredom.

It was probably a TD this morning (It would have been if it was anywhere near the US), but it looks like crap this afternoon. Convection has waned and is being blown off to the east by shear.

Models are in pretty good agreement that Thursday may be the day this system gets going, once the upper low to its north lifts out. The weather pattern over North America, with ridging over the central/western US and troughing over the east and into the western Atlantic, does not appear favorable for any hurricane landfall.