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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    Saturday, south of Jamaica, is when the latest Euro begins to ramp up the cyclone. I foresee a lot of low-sleep nights coming up next week as I have to stay awake for one more recon pass or model run.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Not necessarily. Look way out to the east. The Euro is immediately developing the next African wave as soon as it emerges into the Atlantic. The gulf storm could be Ian.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    967 mb per the latest dropsonde.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    From a Ryan Maue tweet. The Euro ensemble really likes a gulf storm.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Fiona is not wasting any time at all.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    A couple storms popped this evening and dropped 0.70" on my yard... a pleasant surprise.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Scattered very light rain and sprinkles yesterday and overnight added up to a mighty 0.10".
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Pressure is down to 993 mb.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    Pressure is down to 997 mb. We're still waiting for some good convection over the center, but it has tightened up a bit.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Upper divergence has improved significantly over the last 24 hours. It just needs to tighten up the core. Maybe some good convection tonight will do it.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    And, just like that, the Euro shows how to get a landfall in Florida. Land interaction keeps Fiona weak and shallow while just enough weak ridging remains in place to the north, then the big northeast US trough digs just far enough east to barely bypass Fiona and not pull it away.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro is remaining farther south this run, continuing wnw and weak over the islands.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    My records show quite a few big rain events up through 2015. There was a ten-year stretch when I AVERAGED 8" in June. I remember putting the pump on the patio and bailing out the window wells. There just hasn't been anything like that in recent years, that's all. While I love heavy rain, I certainly don't want water in the basement again. One of these years we'll get a 5+" event and have water issues again.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Rockford has done well recently. RFD reported 6" over two days in early August and now they get another 5". It has been several years since my last 4" event.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    It is 70º and sunny over here with a gusty north wind.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the Rockford area is the bullseye... already 2-3" with another 2+" on the way.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    I received 0.73" overnight. I was hoping for 1+", but the system slid to the east a bit too much. Much of the rain total was from long-duration light to very light rain, so it certainly wasn't exciting.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The new UK shifted the good rain east of my area, but the GFS, GDPS, and Euro are solid with 1+". I'd have loved the 3-4", but it's just not our year for that. 12z Euro
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, that pocket of dry air never allowed the core to get that real pretty look we like to see. It did well to drop to about 960 mb.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Models have trended toward a farther north track of the upper low this weekend, so the rain bullseye has been moved to Wisconsin.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Recon just measured 107 kt at flight level east of the center. The convective ring around the center is really beginning to come together now.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    New dropsonde found 971 mb. The shear is gradually diminishing as the upper low to the west drifts south and the hurricane lifts north. Outflow is really fanning out.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Latest dropsonde pressure is 976 mb.
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