3-5" of snow fell from Dubuque into far nw Illinois. The snow is already nearly gone in Iowa as the clouds move out and the sun instantly burns it off.
18z HRRR
The HRRR had the snow farther south earlier this morning, but it has trended north toward the other models. Cyclone and I may end up just barely south of the 1-4" snow band.
For this area (I assume cyclone's area is similar) <15" winters are rare, but 15-25" is pretty typical in bad winters. Over the last fifteen years, my worst winters are 21", 20", and 17". I was fortunate to get 26" this winter.
Models are showing a nice burst of snow Saturday morning, with perhaps 1-3".
The latest Euro has a nearly identical system Sunday night that drops another thin band of snow in the same area.
0.9" of snow here this morning in one brief burst. Unfortunately, I woke up shortly after it was over.
As usual, the Des Moines area is the bulls-eye with 2-3".
The big storm this week is trending poorly for my area. Models are now showing it ejecting in two pieces. The first wave's precip is mostly north and southeast, then the second wave's wrap-up is delayed until it lifts into the lakes.
Models are trending toward a powerful great lakes storm next week as the northern and southern waves strongly phase together.
Unfortunately, the large upper low cuts off and pulls a cold airmass over our region for several days in early April.
We didn't get much rain from the weakening initial band this morning, but tonight was much better. I finished with a real nice 1.34". More fell just barely to my west. We are in moderate drought, so spring is off to a good start (2.34" over the last week).
I'll give my winter a C-. I'll likely finish below average, but not way below. I did get three snow events in the 5.4-6.2" range, which is decent for my area. There just wasn't anything else.
It's looking like the GFS may have scored a major win with the late-week system. For days the GFS was way out on its own tracking a wrapped-up soaker up through Iowa and Wisconsin. Other models have consistently been weaker and well south... until today. They've all trended much closer to the GFS. The GFS does continue to show significant accumulating snow in Iowa, which is probably bunk. We could all use a nice soaker.
00z Euro
The 12z Euro dried up somewhat in Iowa. It went from being one of the most bullish models to being one of the driest. The band across northern Illinois would likely be pretty wet.