hawkeye_wx

Models have converged on a similar scenario this weekend into next week. It appears there will be widespread 1-3" of rain under the deformation zone with some areas receiving 4-6". Every model shows this now. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of a major screw zone. This morning's Euro does exactly that for southeast Iowa. The Euro is very strong and stalls the low right over me or just west. Southeast Iowa gets major dry-slotted while a ton of rain falls to the nw. The UK, on the other hand, has eastern Iowa near the western edge of the heavy stuff. The Canadian has 1-3" from Nebraska through Michigan. An average of the current models would be fine, but that Euro scares me.

Satellite presentation is not pretty, but the pressure has dropped to 978 mb.

Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off. Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks. The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard.

It has become incredibly boring. Lawns are browning again and there is little to no rain in sight. This year we don't even get any tropical action to distract from our local boredom.

It was probably a TD this morning (It would have been if it was anywhere near the US), but it looks like crap this afternoon. Convection has waned and is being blown off to the east by shear.

Models are in pretty good agreement that Thursday may be the day this system gets going, once the upper low to its north lifts out. The weather pattern over North America, with ridging over the central/western US and troughing over the east and into the western Atlantic, does not appear favorable for any hurricane landfall.

The steering current collapses as the storm reaches the sw Atlantic, so it is just slowly meandering at this point.

This is my fourth consecutive dud event. I only received 0.11". Since August 8th, I've only received 0.60".

Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeastward escape.

Well, I guess I have to take that back. After 180 hours a very strong ridge pops over sw/sc Canada, and in response a trough forms over se Canada. That trough is far away from the cyclone, but it weakens the west-Atlantic ridge so the storm is slowing and turning nw.

At 180 hours it's booking wnw toward the Bahamas and there is nothing but strong ridging across the US and into the western Atlantic. It has nowhere to go but west.

Like the GFS, the Euro also shows the 500 mb energy getting stretched apart by the developing upper low to the north. However, while the GFS has a bunch more troughiness beyond that, the Euro builds an upper ridge, so the system is able to reorganize and head wnw into a favorable environment.

The GFS shows some solid 500 mb vorticity where the system is now, but over the next 5+ days it shows a bunch of mid-Atlantic troughiness continually trying to yank it north and pull it apart.

Meanwhile, this is the third consecutive dud rain event for my yard. I got 0.09". We did well during the first week of August, but I've received only 0.49" total since then. I'm sitting at 2.99" for the month.

We missed out on any good rain again. Models teased half to one inch for days, but every good cell either went around me or crapped out before arriving. I only got 0.39".

This one isn't going to make it. It showed promise early yesterday, but the convection poofed and it never really came close to closing off a defined circulation. It's a weak mess this morning and there is little time left over water.

Nope, this is not the wind field of a TD or TS. It has more work to do.

It is currently partly sunny and 68º here at 1pm. Saturday is probably the last chance to hit 90º this month.

It was a delightful day. We were in the low 70s through mid afternoon and only maxed out at 76º when the clouds cleared late. I got the lawn mowed as it's getting rather lush and thick in spots.

The Freeport area is getting clobbered again this morning. 24 hours ago they got 4-8 inches of rain. This morning the same stations are getting another 3-5". Meanwhile, much of southern Iowa has received less than an inch over the last 30 days.

0.54" in my yard. Just barely to the north and east is a band of 2-5".

Cedar Rapids' dewpoint just reached 80º. The heat index is 111º. I hope we can cash this soup in for some good rain.

Dubuque and QC have officially hit a dewpoint of 80º. It's a sauna out there, but the high cloud spillage has certainly helped keep it bearable.

A severe-warned storm just moved through Cedar Rapids. I estimate the wind maxed at about 50 mph here.

Yeah, I was pretty shocked as well. All I could think is the forecast is computer generated and they didn't bother human-tweaking it. Over several days the forecast went from 105 to 101 to 99 to 96 to low 90s, and now upper 80s.