hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Dropsonde says 973 mb.
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Two new center dropsonde reports, ~984 mb and ~982 mb.
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The latest hot towers are pinwheeling more tightly around the center than the ones first thing this morning. Steady deepening should begin soon.
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New dropsonde: 985 mb I thought for sure Ida would be in full strengthening mode this morning, but so far it's not happening. It is only holding steady while it tries to form an inner core. Ida only has about thirty hours left over water.
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New dropsonde: 985 mb It's still just holding fairly steady.
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Models have been locked into a south-central/southeast Louisiana swamp coast landfall for a while.
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The newest recon dropsonde, ten minutes after the 985 mb dropsonde, says 986 mb. Even quick passage over a thin stretch of Cuba disrupts a storm. It has taken a good ten hours to regroup.
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Latest dropsonde says 985 mb.
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Per recon dropsonde, the pressure is ~991 mb.
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Low 990s extrap pressure from recon. We probably shouldn't expect to see too much until the entire core gets out into the gulf (~several hours)
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HWRF down to 933 mb on the latest run.
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A new recon plane is on the way, should be there when the center emerges into the gulf.
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Radar shows the center of the eye just reached the Cuban coast at 7pm EDT.
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12z HWRF
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SPC has much of northern Iowa in the enhanced severe area, but the decaying morning MCS has really put the kibosh on instability across the state. I'm afraid it may have ruined tonight storms.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
The GFS continues to forecast another storm will form in about the same location (Caribbean) once Ida moves inland. -
00z Euro
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The GFS continues to focus on and develop the northern end of this wave earlier each run.
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The UK still tracks it over the Yucatan and delays the organization until the far nw gulf.
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The 12z GFS deepens this system by nearly 30 mb in 18 hours Sunday over the central gulf, and 45 mb in 30 hours.
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I picked up another 0.20" from a stationary area of rain this morning. A heavy cell parked over the county just sw of Cedar Rapids and dropped 3-4" down there.
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The model trend is not just north, but also to develop it earlier near the Yucatan channel. For days models were showing a last-minute developer.
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I was in the screw zone for weeks, but I've been hit good three times in the last four days. I picked up another 1.07" this evening. The first line crapped out and dropped very little, but the second line really came through. Previous 7 weeks: 0.98" Last four days: 2.75" I could not have asked for more out of this pattern. My luck has flipped hard. Let's keep this going.
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There is no wind with this second line, just very heavy rain with some lightning/thunder (first line had none).
