hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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The latest GFS does bend Henri back into the NYC area, but during its last day over water it is rapidly weakening.
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The intense blowup of convection over the center quickly knocked the pressure down several mb first thing this morning, but the core convection has waned since then and the pressure has plateaued. The overall organization continues to improve, though. At some point today or tonight we should see more intense convection fire over the center again.
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Grace had been gradually building the east side all night, but this morning it has finally been able to pull that deep convection over the center. It'll be interesting to see what it can do before it reaches Cancun/Cozumel.
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It appears the models have unanimously gone to the southern route for Grace... a date with the Yucatan and then deep in mainland Mexico. So far, Grace has refused to gain latitude. It could even sneak mostly south of Hispaniola.
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New dropsonde data suggests 999 mb at the center. However, over the last hour the surface center and convection have become detached. The surface center appears to have drifted westward and is now totally exposed.
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The 12z HWRF and HMON both take Grace across the heart of Hispaniola, where it meets the same fate as Fred.
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Cells are trying to pop along the front over here, but the cap is too strong.
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2-3" of rain fell just north of Cedar Rapids this afternoon. I've received 0.98" over the last six weeks.
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Totally screwed again here. All the heavy storms north of me held together and dumped widespread 1-3". The strong cell west of Cedar Rapids vanished. A brief downpour dropped 0.15" in my gauge, once again only enough to wet the surface.
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This weekend into next week some tropical action is expected to curve from Florida up through the eastern US. As usual, that means a long stretch of dry weather around here.
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I did not realize the HRRR was crashing the dewpoint this afternoon. I wonder why it would do that.
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Another moderately-promising system passes by with little to no rain in Cedar Rapids. My combined July/August rain total is only 0.82". With only a couple exceptions in June, this entire warm season has sucked... right at the top of the "most boring spring/summer ever" list.
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Everything for the last several weeks has skipped over Cedar Rapids. Every widespread-looking event, every "active pattern" has failed to produce. We have one more chance of rain late tonight as the upper low moves across northeast Iowa. There is also a chance Tuesday, but then it looks like another long dry period will follow.
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0.19" here this morning. Models had been a bit more bullish about tonight, but no longer. Sunday should bring more widespread, heavier rain to the region.
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I am currently receiving my first rain in over three weeks. It likely won't add up to much, but it's nice to get something.
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My final July rain total is 0.58".
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I can guarantee that Cyclone was not expecting to get 2" of rain this morning. The west end of the storms remained pretty robust and dropped south from LaCrosse to Dubuque to the QC.
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The cloud shield from the morning Minnesota MCS did a good job of holding our temp down today, too.
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Today marks the end of the heatwave that failed to match its potential. Local mets and the nws all forecasted 90+ for several days in a row, with mid 90s early this week and possibly upper 90s today. Instead, Cedar Rapids (officially) only hit 90º twice during the warm stretch, 92º last Saturday and only 90º today (of course, it was probably a couple degrees higher here in the city). Today was the only real humid day as the dewpoint hit 78º. Most days the dew has been in the 60s.
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It appears 0.58" will be my rain total for July (drier than 2012) as models have pushed any rain into August. This pattern sucks... surge of heat -> capped, dry frontal passage -> cooler, but dry -> repeat, ad infinitum. We will never get any decent rain out of this pattern.
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On July 23rd, I'm still sitting at 0.58" of rain for the month. Late next week is the next chance of rain.
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The July 14th tornado outbreak ranks third in the Iowa record book.
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The big line of storms split around Cedar Rapids last evening, so I only picked up 0.10". My July total is only 0.58", with no rain expected for the next 10+ days. Keep in mind, the WPC has had Cedar Rapids getting 3+" of rain twice this month, but combined I've only received 0.58".
