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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    For my area, it will depend on how soon the storms can fire. The latest HRRR doesn't show much firing until after it is east and south of Cedar Rapids.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    0.40" here overnight.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    984 mb
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Beryl's center actually moved east of north between the last two recon passes. The pressure, once again, has not changed.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    There have been several center dropsondes through the afternoon and evening, but the one at 18:49z was 989.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    The surface pressure is the same as it was six hours ago. The radar presentation continues to look pretty disheveled. As has been the case all day, a pocket of modest convection will pop up within the core, but as it rotates around, it dries up.... rinse, repeat.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    The upper level outflow is beautiful. If Beryl had a tight and moist inner core, it would be cranking.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    The process of mixing the dry air out of Beryl's inner core has been painfully slow.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The pressure has dropped to 989 mb. A more substantial drop will likely have to wait until tonight's dmax.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The moistness of the core has clearly increased through the day, but the convection is still weak near the center.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Per recon, 991 mb (12 kt wind)
  12. hawkeye_wx
    This is one of those, "If it could have acquired its current level of organization yesterday morning...", situations. Fortunately, for the Texas coast, Beryl will run out of time before it can do anything crazy.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    The newest recon pass is still finding only about a 1000 mb pressure. The work has started, but it'll still take the rest of the day and night to rebuild the core.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    It's understandable why the GFS is showing only minor strengthening before Texas landfall. Beryl was gutted by the combination of land and shear. It will have to restart from scratch.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Cancun radar Mexico radar
  17. hawkeye_wx
    So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?
  18. hawkeye_wx
    Models are consistently showing that it will take about 36 hours over water for Beryl to reorganize. The environment should become more favorable as Beryl slows and turns north near the Texas coast.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Pressure is up to 972 mb, so it's weakening steadily tonight.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The pressure is up to 968 mb.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    My first solid storm in several weeks dropped a quick 0.35" late this evening.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS has shifted northward, has the storm creeping up the Texas coast.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    The second recon pass found 965 mb with a dropsonde.
  24. hawkeye_wx
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says about 963 mb, so it's an 11 mb drop since the last recon report several hours ago.
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