hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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New dropsonde says 979 mb w/ 13 kt wind.
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The newest dropsonde says 980 mb.
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We are only getting two passes from this recon plane. The next plane should be in there this evening.
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985 mb per recon dropsonde..... 3 mb drop between passes.
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The 12z gfs track is interesting. Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro. However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.
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The visible loop looks very good. A nice ring of bubbly convection continues to surround the center. The next recon is on its way and should be in the eye in a couple hours. We need a moderator to clean out some of the garbage posts polluting this topic this morning.
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The 06z Euro took a big jump south, shows Milton's center almost scraping the coast of the Yucatan.
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I'm simply referring to the structural change that leads to much of the precip shifting to the northern half of the circulation.
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All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida.
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I use Tropical Tidbits for the hurricane models.
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The Canadian is, very oddly, two days slower than the other models. Throw it out.
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While this system is already looking good, with persistent deep convection near the center, models really start to blow it up Sunday morning as it begins its eastward track.
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As of now, the first recon flight is not scheduled until 12z Sunday.
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Yeah, this system has come together more quickly than models and the NHC suggested/expected. It appears to already be a TD with a well-defined surface circulation and central convection.
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Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
hawkeye_wx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The ICON is also becoming more bullish in the gulf over the last few runs. -
It appeared Cedar Rapids was a lock to reach at least second place on the longest precip-less-stretch-on-record list. However, tonight's showers and storms popped just a hair farther north than models suggested and the Cedar Rapids airport picked up 0.05".
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The extreme dryness is putting stress on trees. I'm seeing a lot of leaf drop around town. The city planted a bunch of new trees last year along a nearby road. Some of them are not looking good because they never get water. The city has been planting a lot of new trees along roads across the city because of the 2020 derecho. Unfortunately, a not-insignificant percentage of these trees end up dying because we keep getting bad drought every year and rain is the only way these trees get watered.
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Cedar Rapids finished September with 0.00" of rain. At my house I got 0.11".
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
hawkeye_wx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The Euro has a storm in the gulf, but there is strong shear -
The new center dropsonde says 943 mb (with 9 kt wind).
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The new recon plane is coming from Houston. It just passed the mouth of the Mississippi river. It should be in the eye in a couple hours.
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The pressure is still 962 mb. Overnight into this morning is when the aggressive hurricane models had Helene bombing, but it didn't happen.
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If Helene is going to jump to the next level, it needs to be able to wrap the deep convection all the way around the center, which it is having trouble doing this morning.
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The current recon plane's final pass found 978-979 mb.
