RogueWaves

What? That I can enjoy more boat-n-beach days, and fewer sled-n-ski days? Did I miss something? What's the scary reality in that? Summers of 13/14/15 were horrible. Could hardly find a decent day to enjoy our wonderful GL's. I fail to see any "wow factor" in the drum you continually beat. And I'm a gardener at heart, so I appreciate your hobby and how much effort you put into that awesome tropical look. I just see a lot of wishful thinking that FL climo is suddenly going to pounce on yby without a sudden shift of the poles - that's actually a much scarier prospect tbh. Now back to looking at the impending cold December on tap..

So, its milder right at water's edge - shocking! I used to live there, just 1 block off the beach. Even if that avg has creeped up, what does this mean in reality? I could now put a sensitive plant or palm out and about every 3-4 winters it will fail to survive the inevitable arctic cold wave. What's the point in that? Really?

Agree. Wouldn't be counting on clippers, but moreso some hybrids as we had in the last Nino 18-19. Main player likely STJ this winter. IF we could manage to get in the crosshairs of both tracks, that would be huge.

Taking 14-15 again, Dec 14 was about as "non-winter" as you can get. Whereas Feb 15 was about as "severe winter" as it gets around SEMI. January, at least where I was in SWMI was a mixed bag but leaned colder with slightly AN snowfall, including a warned event. I do get your point ofc, everyone looking for snow is not excited for a pattern that is 60-70% CAD. Mild and dry is much better like our current pattern. Even if we did split it 50/50, I much prefer that the cold and moist periods last for weeks (Feb 15) vs just days. Exception to that rule being 07-08 which we lucked out with a mega-active pattern for SMI.

I'm thinking we see this during winter. One common analog went this back-n-forth route (14-15). Someone posted on '89. It also did the back-n-forth. It made for some very dynamic systems too, if you were lucky enough to be in the right place. NMI in that case. SMI in the case of 14-15.

MJO liking colder phases. It's the "D" in CAD that remains to be seen.

It's called the rut

I don't think you have to sweat it. Was there ever a year without winter up there?

Iiuc, '98-99 broke the dismal streak of low-snowfall winters for DTW during the '90s. Looking at the next (23) winters, on average we can hit dbl-digit snow depth roughly every 2.3 yrs: And score a noticeably AN snow fall season approximately every 2.9 years: Obviously, I left out the last pair of winters that failed to reach either category threshold. They can be put towards the next AN winter lol. What I'd like to think is that based on the averages we might be due a better winter.

Yeah, I guess he did say "snow" not snowstorm. My bad.

Wasn't 07. As for T-day 08 that was on the 27th and there was the storm a few days later that straddled 11/30-12/1 (I was in downtown Chicago where it was mostly RN) which left a decent blanket of snowcover to start the rockin' month of December. Perhaps that's what you remembered. It was Sun/Mon of T-day weekend.

In years when there was ample snow by 11/15, I never rode my sleds until after dark. Partly out of courtesy, partly not to piss-off someone holding a high-powered weapon, lol. @weatherbo My late cousin had a hunting cottage near L'anse. I never made the trek all the way up there to hunt so I didn't realize it was bucks only up there. Should be open season here in the burbs lol. Last year I had a 10 point and a 6 point run in front of my car just a 1/4 mile from here. Surprising amount of wildlife here in western Wayne County. A lot of waterways and greenways run between endless housing developments. One is on the south side of Plymouth. There's a huge Tom turkey that stakes out his claim to S Main and Ann Arbor Rd in front of a Chrysler dealership. Causes traffic snarls all the time.

OMG yes! How did I not remember the 04 early storm. Was only 4-5" in Marshall but there were places up to a foot in SWMI. Another reason 04-05 rocked across SMI. (see my post in the winter thread for more hype). First event I remember in 07-08 was the mid-Dec system. Will have to check out whatever missed me earlier on.

Big dump on NMI 11/5/90 also melted off just in time for a brown opener.

Let's just do this!

As @michsnowfreak posted, it wasn't a complete whiff for Detroit. Even the city reported 5" depth, and Pontiac was 10". But it was one of those shoulder season systems just cold enough to snow, and a week later only piles remained. Jackson and the Tri-Cities regions were both epicenters and no doubt memorable similar to my own April '75 Big Dog experience.

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's.

Some day, peeps will be posting about "the ghost of JB". Like him or not, that's a legacy hard to deny.

I'm there. My recent string of bad winters has been brutal in this regard. Ofc, my preference is not just a few inches OTG, but substantial amounts. The quick to come, quick to go EC scenario might be fun when it happens but getting basically nada in between (over multiple seasons even) would be downright awful.

And gun deer opener in NMI was a sunny and balmy affair. Felt more like October's bow season (which hadn't been born yet). 75-76 went on to be the first in a string of historic winters for both cold and snow in the Lower Lakes region. Especially known as a banner LES winter. But even places like my home region (KFNT) had their (then) snowiest January for instance. Only beat since by 2014. To note, that warm November of '75 did feature a cold bout around Thanksgiving and featured some snow systems that ended up making it a very snowy month in the end. A month of extreme contrasts, at least in my home region.

Not sure which season you are speaking of there? As for the wild swings, see my other post and I agree. 1991-92 may fall into that camp as well. Iirc, it was a Nino that delivered an impressive "Detroit Special" in mid-January (some say it was a triple-phaser). 10-15" across the region in very dynamic fashion had much of the city at a virtual standstill. I was living in Traverse at the time and we'd had a blah season to that point so I wasn't too happy, lol.

09-10 was actually an AN snowfall season further west. Then we slid downwards as 2010-11 favored SEMI better than SWMI. You'd see that if it weren't for all the "M's". I really like how there's an "M" for the season in 19-20 even tho none in the months for that year:

That's why I said we'd need a colder version like the Mod Nino of 02-03. Despite this early warmth (which I'm fine with tbh), I think we have a shot at the colder scenario working out. We may get there via some crazy swings though. Torch months like Dec '14 mixed with record cold months like Feb '15 could be in play. I doubt it gets cold and stays that way like 02-03. Palm peeps say that's in the mirror now for our region anyways.

Top notch shed

It was known for the St. Patty's Day storm that buried cities like Jackson and Bay City with 20+. A colder version is what SEMI needs. Something between 72-73 & 02-03